Author | Lightnews

ScotiaStat Hockey @scotiastat.bsky.social · Aug 2

They're sitting at an overall error of $563,610, whereas I'm at $521,496 with goalies and $511,590 without.

There are still some notable contracts left to be signed so final numbers could change.

ScotiaStat Hockey @scotiastat.bsky.social · Aug 2

Below are my contract projection error numbers compared to Evolving Hockey.

My MAE is a little lower and R^2 is a little higher on both UFAs and RFAs. I'm not sure if they included goalies in their numbers so I included mine with and without goalies just in case. #HockeyX

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ScotiaStat Hockey @scotiastat.bsky.social · Jun 4

Avs resign Brock Nelson to a 3 year deal worth $7.5M AAV.

This UFA market is gonna be very interesting on July 1. Lots of potential overpays coming.
Solid signing by the #GoAvsGo    on this one though.

Reposted by ScotiaStat Hockey

Stephen Geary @stephengeary.bsky.social · May 31

stephengeary.shinyapps.io/draftsim/

Created a simple shinyapp to visualize a Monte Carlo simulation of the upcoming NHL Draft

NHL 2025 Entry Draft Simulation

stephengeary.shinyapps.io

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ScotiaStat Hockey @scotiastat.bsky.social · May 30

Tyson Foerster signed a 2 year $3.75M contracted extension which comes in right at the expected cost for a 2 year deal. Good value for the #LetsGoFlyers on this signing.

ScotiaStat Hockey @scotiastat.bsky.social · May 1

Good deal here for #RaiseUp This deal comes in just a bit below Skinner, Henrique and Duchene in Cap Hit % at 3.32%. Overall good deal for both sides. Hall has been very effective for Carolina since he was dealt there earlier this season. #HockeyX

ScotiaStat Hockey @scotiastat.bsky.social · Apr 24

docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

ScotiaStat 2026 Projections

docs.google.com

ScotiaStat Hockey @scotiastat.bsky.social · Apr 24

📊All projections have been updated, including 2025 Extensions, 2025 Free Agents and 2026 Extensions! There is also now a page that documents the change in dollars since the last projection 📈📉#HockeyX

Go take a look at over 650 contract projections ‼️‼️

docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

ScotiaStat 2025 Projections

docs.google.com

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ScotiaStat Hockey @scotiastat.bsky.social · Apr 17

This contract makes sense from a comparables standpoint. I had him projected for this exact amount, which aligns with some of the UFA defenseman from last season, such as Brady Skjei, Brandon Montour and Matt Roy.
#GoJetsGo

ScotiaStat Hockey @scotiastat.bsky.social · Mar 25

Below is my WAR card for #ALLCAPS Chychrun. He has played excellent this season and has had a great season offensively, however his defense hasn't been very good. If he can improve his defense to around league average, I think this deal will be fine long term.

ScotiaStat Hockey @scotiastat.bsky.social · Mar 25

Woww #ALLCAPS, did not see this coming.

Chychrun has been good, having a bounce back year this year. But established players in a contract year generally play better and struggle to replicate this success long term. Not saying he won't, just saying it might be difficult to.

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ScotiaStat Hockey @scotiastat.bsky.social · Mar 19

Aliaksei Protas has been outstanding for #ALLCAPS this year. He has been one of the top forwards in almost every statistical category tracked by my model.
If he can perform at this level for the next few seasons, his contract will easily be one of the best in the league.

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ScotiaStat Hockey @scotiastat.bsky.social · Mar 14

Have to be happy for #VegasBorn Adin Hill getting a long term deal this big. Had him projected at almost $7.5M on a 6 year deal.

Also of note: $400K more than #ALLCAPS Logan Thompson on the same term 👀
#HockeyX

Reposted by ScotiaStat Hockey

hockeyskytte.bsky.social @hockeyskytte.bsky.social · Mar 10

Is there any interest in a public hockey analytics competition?

Here's me thinking out loud. Let me know what you think and please help share the message.

hockey-statistics.com/2025/03/10/h...

Hockey Analytics Competition?

The author proposes establishing a public hockey analytics competition and forum, emphasizing the need for peer review and open data sharing. They envision a competition post-NHL season covering va…

hockey-statistics.com

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ScotiaStat Hockey @scotiastat.bsky.social · Mar 10

I will be trying to update these as often as I can but it is currently not set up for automatic refreshes.

If you have any feedback, comments, suggestions or otherwise, I am happy to try to get back to you as best as I can.

Please enjoy!
#HockeyX #NHL

ScotiaStat Hockey @scotiastat.bsky.social · Mar 10

Additionally, the results for each season from 2014 to now are in a Google Sheets file where you can see how any player has performed by season and cumulatively during that span.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

ScotiaStat Player Ratings

docs.google.com

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ScotiaStat Hockey @scotiastat.bsky.social · Mar 10

All player and goalie cards for this season can be found in the google drive linked below.
The stats were lasted update this afternoon but some players who have recently been traded have not had their team updated yet.

drive.google.com/drive/folder...

ScotiaStat NHL WAR Cards - Google Drive

drive.google.com

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ScotiaStat Hockey @scotiastat.bsky.social · Mar 10

🚨 Introducing the ScotiaStat NHL Player and Goalie WARs 🚨

Recently, I have been working to make an NHL player rating system using 100% public data from @MoneyPuckdotcom & @PuckIQ. These ratings are measured by Wins Above Replacement or WAR.

sites.google.com/view/scotias...

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ScotiaStat Hockey @scotiastat.bsky.social · Feb 18

Drew O'Connor of the #Canucks has signed a 2 year, $2.5M extension. The deal comes in a bit higher than expected. Had him projected for $2M on a 2 year contract.

ScotiaStat Hockey @scotiastat.bsky.social · Feb 14

Sam Steel has signed a 2 year, $2.1M extension with the Dallas Stars. I had him projected for 2 years, $2.06M. This extension is exactly what was expected for #TexasHockey

ScotiaStat Hockey @scotiastat.bsky.social · Feb 8

Mark Friedman is a pending UFA who would be expected to sign a 1 year deal for close to the league minimum.
#Smashville #HockeyX

ScotiaStat Hockey @scotiastat.bsky.social · Feb 6

Ran the first batch of projections for extension eligible players on July 1st and Lane Hutson... WOW

This is a huge projection given he has 56 career games to his name. If he can even get 30-40% better on D in the next few years this will be a STEAL.
#GoHabsGo #HockeyX #NHL

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ScotiaStat Hockey @scotiastat.bsky.social · Feb 6

#Canucks wasted no time signing Pettersson. I had him projected for 6 years, $6.18M AAV. The trade protection likely helped lower the AAV by a little bit. Vancouver now has Hughes, Hronek, Pettersson and Myers locked up for another two more years after this one.

#HockeyX #NHL

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ScotiaStat Hockey @scotiastat.bsky.social · Feb 1

New #Canucks Marcus Pettersson and Drew O'Connor will both expire as UFAs this offseason. Pettersson is an above average puck moving, offensive defenseman. O'Connor is a depth lower line forward.
Vancouver has a lot of cap space this offseason, $26.8M according to @puckpedia.com

ScotiaStat Hockey @scotiastat.bsky.social · Feb 1

My Projections for the top 4 RFAs below.

Vilardi: 4x$6.47M
Rossi: 6x$7.29M
Johnston: 6x$7.77M
Peterka: 5x$6.55M

#NHL #HockeyX #GoJetsGo #mnwild #TexasHockey #sabrehood

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