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Sergey

Sergey

@sergeycyw.bsky.social

64 followers 21 following 14K posts

I talk about growth stock investing and fundamental analysis with a long-term mindset. I provide earnings reviews and key news updates. Not investment advice. SergeyCYW.substack.com

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Sergey @sergeycyw.bsky.social · 29m

-Gross margin decline implies inflationary input trends and FX headwinds.
-Elevated SBC ratio marginally dilutes near-term earnings leverage.
-Latin America growth deceleration limits global operating momentum.
-Unresolved regulatory disputes introduce residual financial uncertainty.

Sergey @sergeycyw.bsky.social · 29m

+Technological innovation via GenAI adoption supports product differentiation and content scalability.

Cons
-EPS miss exposes vulnerability to unforeseen tax and cost shocks.
-Operating margin contraction reflects executional strain and regional cost pressures.

Sergey @sergeycyw.bsky.social · 29m

+Regional diversification across EMEA and APAC enhances earnings resilience and growth optionality.
+Share repurchases and reduced share count signal shareholder-aligned capital discipline.
+Healthy ad-tier expansion and US upfront success strengthen monetization capabilities.

Sergey @sergeycyw.bsky.social · 29m

Guidance
↗️Q4'25 $11.960B guide (+16.7% YoY) beat est by 0.5%

Pros
+Strong revenue expansion evidences durable pricing power and subscriber growth momentum.
+Free cash flow margin uplift reinforces operating efficiency and disciplined content spending.

Sergey @sergeycyw.bsky.social · 29m

Operating expenses
↗️S&M/Revenue 6.8% (+0.3 PPs YoY)
↘️R&D/Revenue 7.4% (-0.1 PPs YoY)
↘️G&A/Revenue 4.0% (-0.3 PPs YoY)

Dilution
↗️SBC/rev 2%, +0.4 PPs QoQ
↗️Basic shares down -0.9% YoY, +0.2 PPs QoQ🟢
↗️Diluted shares down -0.9% YoY, +0.2 PPs QoQ🟢

Sergey @sergeycyw.bsky.social · 29m

#NFLX Q3'25 Results:
↘️$11.510B rev (+17.2% YoY, +3.9% QoQ) missed est by -0.2%🔴
↘️GM (46.4%, -1.5 PPs YoY)🟡
↘️EBIT Margin (28.2%, -1.4 PPs YoY)🟡
↗️FCF Margin (23.1%, +0.8 PPs YoY)
↘️Net Margin (22.1%, -1.9 PPs YoY)🟡
↘️EPS $5.87 missed est by -14.9%

Sergey @sergeycyw.bsky.social · 12h

Palantir $PLTR monetizes enterprise AI adoption through its AIP platform. U.S. commercial revenue up 71%, customer count +43% in Q4, and FY25 guidance at $3.74–$3.76B, up 46% YoY. Net income expected to double to $1.1B.

Sergey @sergeycyw.bsky.social · 12h

Astera Labs $ALAB solves the bandwidth bottleneck in AI clusters. Its connectivity TAM expands to $27B by 2027 as PCIe, CXL, and Ethernet link GPU racks at scale. Deep ties with Nvidia, AMD, and Intel embed Astera into next-gen AI systems.

Sergey @sergeycyw.bsky.social · 12h

Eos Energy $EOSE scales fast as AI data centers drive electricity use to 2–3× current levels by 2028. Roughly 30% of its pipeline now serves data center storage projects, with Q2 revenue of $15.2M, nearly matching all of 2024.

Sergey @sergeycyw.bsky.social · 12h

Oracle $ORCL secures a $300B, five-year OpenAI deal starting 2027—implying $60B annually in AI cloud revenue. Cloud backlog surged 359% YoY to $455B, positioning Oracle as a key sovereign AI cloud provider.

Sergey @sergeycyw.bsky.social · 12h

Three hyperscalers contributed $21.9B in Q2 FY26, confirming demand concentration.

Sergey @sergeycyw.bsky.social · 12h

Nvidia $NVDA dominates the AI chip stack with 88% of revenue from data centers and Blackwell GPUs sold out a year ahead. CEO Jensen Huang sees $3–4T in global AI infra spend through decade-end, with Nvidia capturing ~70% of GPU outlays.

Sergey @sergeycyw.bsky.social · 12h

Taiwan Semiconductor $TSM manufactures AI chips for Nvidia, AMD, and hyperscalers. 3nm and 5nm nodes account for 60% of wafer revenue, and AI accelerator revenue is set to grow at a ~45% CAGR through 2029. Management now guides mid-30% revenue growth in 2025.

Sergey @sergeycyw.bsky.social · 12h

Broadcom $AVGO powers hyperscale data centers with custom AI chips, optical interconnects, and high-speed networking. A $10B mystery AI customer in Q3 2025 underpins record demand. With hyperscalers investing $364B in data centers next year, Broadcom’s pipelines are full.

Sergey @sergeycyw.bsky.social · 12h

CoreWeave $CRWV anchors GPU-accelerated AI cloud demand. Revenue visibility grows through multi-year contracts and rapid data center expansion. AI-optimized IaaS spend is set to surge 146% in 2025 to $18.3B, reaching $37.5B by 2026 as inference workloads scale.

Sergey @sergeycyw.bsky.social · 12h

Nebius $NBIS rides the enterprise shift away from hyperscalers. A $3B raise and the Microsoft partnership inked in September 2025 fund its “Aether” AI Cloud 3.0 platform. Global AI infra spend hitting $375B in 2025 gives Nebius a long runway.

Sergey @sergeycyw.bsky.social · 12h

AI Infrastructure Boom — Where the Next Trillion Is Flowing

AI infrastructure spending is exploding, creating clear winners across chips, cloud, and power. Global AI infrastructure outlays are expected to surpass $500B by 2026, with GPU clouds, networking absorbing most of the capital. A short 🧵👇

Sergey @sergeycyw.bsky.social · 12h

Bottom line: a committed, multi-year revenue engine plus first-mover Blackwell capacity can compound quickly if buildouts hit schedule and financing stays accretive. The next checkpoints are ramp milestones in Vineland, UK/EU Blackwell utilization, and the pace of additional long-term contracts.

Sergey @sergeycyw.bsky.social · 12h

Street perception is shifting. Northland named $NBIS a Top Pick with a $206 target after the Microsoft announcement. The deal also diversifies scarce GPU access and positions Nebius alongside CoreWeave as a key supplier to hyperscalers and leading labs in the global AI cloud stack.

Sergey @sergeycyw.bsky.social · 12h

Energy-efficient design and regulatory readiness aim to lower unit costs and speed compliance—useful as AI power and siting constraints tighten.

Sergey @sergeycyw.bsky.social · 12h

Partnerships with Cloudflare, Prosus, and Shopify broaden distribution while keeping a strong AI-native startup beachhead.

Geography widens. New greenfield sites and land purchases expand the footprint across the U.S., Europe, and the Middle East, including a recent Alabama acquisition.

Sergey @sergeycyw.bsky.social · 12h

Momentum extends beyond one customer. Blackwell reached GA in Europe, with Nebius the first to deliver GB200 capacity there; the UK added Blackwell Ultra. NVIDIA AI Enterprise landed on Nebius AI Cloud, alongside a joint AI MLOps offering with Saturn Cloud.

Sergey @sergeycyw.bsky.social · 12h

Financing is in place—$1B of converts in June plus additional converts and Class A offerings in September—and the Microsoft contract will be levered with debt secured against an investment-grade counterparty, but dilution and delivery timelines deserve close tracking.

Sergey @sergeycyw.bsky.social · 12h

Can execution keep pace with commitments as capacity quadruples and converts stack up?

Sergey @sergeycyw.bsky.social · 12h

Consensus models a sharp step-up: $118M in 2024 to $556M in 2025 and ~$3.6B in 2026. Management targets a 2025 profitability swing to ~$155M net income, with ~$586M in 2026 as utilization rises and financing costs benefit from contract-backed debt.