Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · 6h

MIT News: “Printable aluminum alloy sets strength records, may enable lighter aircraft parts.” The new printable metal is made from an alloy of aluminum and other elements that the team identified using a combination of simulations and machine learning .

$Graphic of nanostructure of new Al alloy. “While traditional methods would require simulating over 1 million possible combinations of materials, the team’s new machine learning-based approach needed only to evaluate 40 possible compositions before identifying an ideal mix for a high-strength, printable aluminum alloy.” As an example, the material scientists envision that the new alloy could allow lighter fan blades in jet engines. “Fan blades are traditionally cast from titanium—a material that is more than 50 percent heavier and up to 10 times costlier than aluminum—or made from advanced composites.” 3D printing can fabricate complex geometries + save on materials, with potential for use in advanced vacuum pumps, high-end automobiles, + cooling devices for data centers,” claimed John Hart, head of Mechanical Engineering at MIT. The smaller and more densely packed its microscopic constituents, or “precipitates,” the stronger the alloy can be. Colleague Taheri-Mousavi found that, using just 40 compositions mixing aluminum with different elements, their machine-learning approach quickly homed in on a recipe for an aluminum alloy with higher volume fraction of small precipitates, and therefore higher strength, than what the previous studies identified. Then 3D printing, also know as additive manufacturing, used a rapid technique to cool + solidify the aluminum alloy. Laser bed powder fusion (LBPF)—is a technique by which a powder is deposited, layer by layer, on a surface in a desired pattern and then quickly melted by a laser that traces over the pattern. The printable powder based on the new recipe resulted in a product 400% stronger than a casted counterpart and 50% stronger than alloys designed using conventional simulations without machine learning. “The new alloy’s microstructure also consisted of a higher volume fraction of small precipitates, and was stable at temperatures of up to 400ºC [752ºF]—a very high temperature for aluminum alloys.”$

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S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · 1d

AAAS: “First approved drug for mitochondrial disease could pave way for more treatments.” A typical human cell [also in plants + fungi] has thousands of mitochondria.

Electron micrograph. AAAS: “First approved drug for mitochondrial disease could pave way for more treatments.” A typical human cell [also in plants + fungi] has thousands of mitochondria, organelles that have a double membrane structure and use aerobic respiration to generate adenosine triphosphate (ATP), which is used throughout the cell as a source of chemical energy. They ‘also help cells synthesize key molecules, control calcium levels, manage stress, and perform other essential tasks.’ So it is unsurprisingly to realize that “when mutations cause mitochondria to malfunction, the consequences can be serious, ranging from fatigue and weakness to seizures and occasionally death.”
Mitochondrial diseases have seemed intractable, but last month the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) licensed the first treatment targeting a mitochondrial flaw. It is called elamipretide, developed to treat Barth syndrome, an extremely rare condition that kills some babies within their first year. “This is a very important step for mitochondrial disease physicians and patients,” says pediatric neurologist Mary Kay Koenig of the University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston. Just a few weeks before, FDA rejected a therapy for another often-fatal mitochondrial disease, pyruvate dehydrogenase complex deficiency (PDCD), asking its manufacturer to run an additional clinical trial. ‘Elamipretide, too, was rejected twice, and only greenlit after more than a year of back and forth with the manufacturer.’ “At least seven other treatments for mitochondria-related illnesses are in clinical trials, and academic researchers and a host of new biotechs are pursuing more potential therapies.”
Mitochondrial diseases are multitudinous. And all are rare. “Barth syndrome affects about 150 people in the United States, and TK2d is even less common—only about 250 people in the world suffer from it.”

S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · 2d

MiamiHerald: “King tides in South Florida: Getting worse and a sign of sea level rise to come.” The Moon’s closest approach of the Earth in its elliptical orbit is called “perigee” + is associated with higher or “king” tides.

Sunny day flood. The annual spate of the highest tides of the year brought coastal flooding, but fortuitously not coinciding with intense rains, a storm surge or a hurricane. “In the last 80 years, sea level…has risen about a foot, with 8 inches of that total in the last 30 years, said Brian McNoldy, a senior research associate at the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric and Earth Science.” But the second foot will only take 30 yrs, + the third foot only 10 yrs after that. Subsidence of coastal Florida, slowing of the Atlantic Meridian Overturning Circulation or AMOC, + global sea level rise are the 3 main causes.
“Property value dropping is a big worry for civic leaders and residents alike in South Florida…however, even in some of the region’s most flood-prone neighborhoods, prices have either held steady or risen, as experts say the benefits of living waterside still outweigh the costs of an occasional flooded garage or home—for most people. “Cathy Sutter, a 15-year resident, said the seasonal floods seem to be getting worse each year, but residents of the waterside complex have learned to adapt, moving their cars to higher ground in advance of the flooding.”
In response, “South Florida governments have sunk tens of millions into infrastructure investments to keep their streets and residents dry in the face of encroaching tides. Miami Beach has spent hundreds of millions elevating roads. Fort Lauderdale has raised sea walls. Miami-Dade has installed permanent new stormwater pump stations to fight gravity and force the water back into canals.” Yet experts say it will take billions more to fully prepare the region for the onslaught of water.
October 8th was “the tenth year of Florida International University’s Sea Level Solutions Day, where volunteers are trained to scoop up water samples, snap pictures of depth and report it back to the scientists running the show.” World turned topsy-turvy when ocean is coming for the lemmings.

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S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · 3d

AAAS: “Well-exercised male mice appear to pass fitness to their male offspring.” Traditional genetics relies on the long-established role of DNA. Human DNA and its associated proteins [primarily histones] have carried information through billions of years of evolution.

Male mouse training. Epigenetic bits of RNA can also bind to DNA + affect its functions.
“You can inherit a talent for athletics from your parents, but physical fitness—which is determined in large part by exercise and other lifestyle choices—doesn’t seem like it can be inherited.” Now there is a paper which suggests male mice that exercise can pass newly gained fitness on to male offspring. “Some acquired traits can alter the chemical packaging of the DNA and affect the properties of the offspring, [the] phenomenon known as epigenetics.” Recent research has show that so-called microRNAs (miRNAs) in sperm cells as one way epigenetic information can be passed on. Previously, ‘scientists have shown that diet, stress, and toxins can have an impact on the embryo through miRNAs.’
Xin Yin, a reproductive biologist at Nanjing University, often noticed that athletes’ children “seemed to be naturally better at sports.” He wondered if athletes’ endless hours of training confered a benefit as well. Yin + his team made male mice run on a treadmill for 2 weeks, then mated them with female mice that didn’t get any forced extra exercise. The male offspring could run for a longer period of time than the controls. “The fitter offspring also had a higher proportion of oxidative muscle fibers and didn’t become obese or diabetic when exposed to a high-fat diet, the team reports in a paper published on Monday in Cell Metabolism.” Sequencing the RNA in the sperm + in fertilized eggs demonstrated higher levels of 10 types of miRNAs that might explain how the increased fitness is conferred. A protein called PGC-1 alpha in muscle switches on genes that build mitochondria, the tiny energy-producing organelles residing inside cells. “The team also collected sperm from eight human men who trained regularly [jocks] and 24 others who didn’t [nerds], and found that human equivalents of seven of the 10 miRNAs were elevated in the sperm of trained men.”

S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · 4d

CanaryMedia: “Trump’s push to keep coal plants running could cost consumers billions.” Emergency stay-open orders from Trump’s Department of Energy for aging fossil-fuel plants are forcing unanticipated + excessive costs onto utilities + their customers.

Tennessee coal plant slated for close in 2026. “An April executive order from…Trump tasks the Department of Energy with taking unilateral authority to obligate power plants to keep operating, even after utilities, states, and regional grid operators have spent years making sure they’re safe to close.” Then last wk, in response to the president’s order, “the DOE released a report [claiming] current power plant retirements and additions put the country at massive risk of blackouts by 2030,” calling for “decisive intervention” to prevent that outcome.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright is ignoring that fact that hundreds of gigawatts of new generation—almost all of it solar, batteries, and wind power—are slated to come online in the near term. ‘Ordering aging fossil-fueled power plants to stay open would force utility customers to pay billions of dollars for some of the least efficient and least reliable power plants on the grid—not to mention those worst for the climate and the health of nearby communities.’ RMI ran a hypothetical “100% self-commitment” analysis to calculate the increase in customer costs that would come from running all coal plants at “maximum availability” throughout the year, using 2024 data. “Nationally, running coal plants more often last year would have increased customer costs by $15 billion,” or a roughly 3% increase in total annual U.S. power-sector costs. “All told, think tank RMI estimates that this kind of “uneconomic dispatch” of coal plants has already put U.S. electricity consumers on the hook for $24 billion in excess expenditures from 2015 to 2024.”
At this point, 108 power plants remain set to close by the end of Trump’s term, including 25 coal plants, according to a June analysis by The New York Times. “It’s unclear if the DOE intends to permit those closures to move ahead.” Lacking a crystal ball, all I can project is the likelihood is Trump will go with the worst option.

S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · 5d

More exciting than a rocket taking off from Cape Canaveral, burning a hole in a cloud. Something I actually saw when I was 19—working in a summer camp on Lake Ocala in central Florida. We took busloads of our campers to see Apollo 11 take off, ferrying the first astronauts to walk on the Moon.

Soapbox speaker on left, Greek myth Cassandra on right. But my launch is for a book, CLOUD DRAGON, with an event at Village Bookstore in Lynden, WA on the 15th of November [a Saturday] at 2 o'clock in the afternoon. Here is the link for information + tickets: http://www.eventbrite.com/e/1680961794979

Cost is $5 for entry, taken off the price of a book if you purchase one. Which of course you will be excited to do. And yes, I do autographs on request. The photo is of the first slide that I use in the presentation, offering two unique perspectives. The first figure manifests the idea that a book may be constructed as a soapbox, whether fiction or nonfiction. The second figure is Cassandra, whose curse was the gift of prophecy from her father Apollo, but the endless torment of struggling to persuade people of the truth of her predictions. So, as they say, come one + all if you live in the northwest corner of Washington State.

S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · 6d

CanaryMedia: “Plug-in solar bills are in the works in New Hampshire and Vermont.” “Lawmakers and advocates in both states are preparing legislation that would make these plug-in solar systems accessible to residents who don’t have space, money, or inclination to install a larger, rooftop array.”

Balcony solar. Also called “portable” or “balcony” solar, these systems generally come in kits even a novice can install. They plug into a standard 110V exterior outlet, but send electrons into the home instead of sucking them out. “Unlike rooftop arrays, plug-in systems don’t generate enough power to meet all, or even most, of a household’s needs, but they offset enough consumption to pay for themselves within four or five years, even without incentives like tax credits or net metering.”
Current models start at about $2,000, but as they become more popular + prices come down, while retail electricity prices go up relentlessly, the payback period will improve. “You don’t need any subsidies to make this work…the pure economics are so attractive, it’s one of the best investments you can make.” Witness how these systems have taken off in Germany, where more than a million have been deployed. “In March [deep-red-state] Utah lawmakers, working with Bright Saver [nonprofit that advocates for the adoption of plug-in solar], unanimously passed a law authorizing and regulating the equipment, making it the first state to lay out the welcome mat for plug-in solar.” Playing catchup, “last month, a Pennsylvania state representative announced plans to introduce a similar law, and Bright Saver is having conversations with lawmakers in about a dozen additional states about possible legislation.”
All these laws define a new class of small, portable solar systems, + establish the right of households to use the systems without submitting applications or paying fees to the state or utilities. “They also define safety standards for the systems, including that they be certified by Underwriters Laboratories, or UL, a company that sets standards and provides safety certifications for a wide range of products.” Bright Saver and other plug-in solar supporters have been working US on this issue and expect a standard to be released in the next month or two.

S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · 7d

CanaryMedia: “US hydropower is at a make-or-break moment.” Relicensing for hydropower dams is a yearslong, often extremely expensive process. “Nearly 450 hydroelectric stations totaling more than 16 gigawatts of generating capacity are scheduled for relicensing across U.S. over the next decade.”

Fish ladder. The government owns about half the hydropower stations in the U.S., but the 450 figure represents about 40% of the nonfederal fleet. Dams provide multiple purposes including dispatchable power. With booming electrical demand, relicensing could help supply multiple facilities, including data centers + aluminum smelters. Such “tech and industrial giants could even help pay for the costly relicensing process with deals like the record-setting $3 billion contract Google inked with hydropower operator Brookfield Asset Management in July for up to 3 gigawatts of hydropower.”

Or, as has been happening for years, the U.S. could continue to lose gigawatts of power as hydroelectric facilities shut down rather than absorb the high costs of relicensing—especially with cheaper competition from gas, wind, and solar.” Starting in the late 1800s, hydropower has provided the second-largest share of the country’s renewable power after wind, and by far its most firm. “But the average age of U.S. dams is 65 years, meaning the bulk of the fleet wasn’t built with newfangled infrastructure to enable unobstructed passage for fish and other wildlife.” The cost of such upgrading can soar into the tens of millions of dollars—on top of the expense of upgrading custom-built equipment for each plant. Furthermore, 1 mark of industrial decline in the US is that ‘after decades of decline in the hydropower sector, the manufacturing muscle for turbines and other hardware that make a dam work has largely atrophied in the U.S.’

Passed in 1920 to regulate hydroelectric facilities, the Federal Power Act does not give any single agency full authority over hydropower the way the Nuclear Regulatory Commission has over nuclear energy. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission or FERC issues key permits on the federal level. “The Fish and Wildlife Service…may require a National Environmental Policy Act review to examine a dam’s effects on a specific fish species.”

S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · 8d

AAAS: “Does drinking beer make you more attractive to mosquitoes?” “Researchers asked attendees at [a] Lowlands music and arts festival in the Netherlands to place their arms against an acrylic box full of mosquitoes to see how many of the bugs [sic] attempted to land on them.”

Mosquito imbibing blood. Captive-reared mosquitoes employed were Anopheles stephensi There was a ‘perforated divider separating the participants’ arms from the insects, so they could only attempt to land on the revellers.’

Study is only a one-off. Second, only volunteers were tested. Third, a number of these subjects were under the influence of one or more of a variety of mood-altering agents affecting their judgement, richly implying selection biases. Fourth, some attendees may have erred in reporting their blood type.

For their Mosquito Magnet Trial, Sara Lynn Blanken at Radboud University Medical Centre in Netherlands and her colleagues asked 465 attendees to complete a questionnaire about their health, diet, hygiene, sunscreen application, any substance use, blood type and whether they had slept alone the night before. “Beer drinkers were 44% more attractive to the bloodsuckers than people who had abstained from suds for at least 12 hours, cannabis users were 35% more attractive, and those who had slept with someone else the night before were 46% more attractive, the team reports in a preprint on bioRxiv.” On the other hand, festivalgoers who had showered and put on sunscreen were 48% less attractive [to mosquitoes, one assumes]. “The researchers found no association with blood type, an oft-touted factor with mixed scientific evidence.” My bias is that a mark of civilization is a hot shower every day. Empirically, seems like indulging in cleanliness + applying mosquito repellant is not asking for a lot. May even prevent having to sleep alone.

While all this may sound a bit light-hearted, let’s remind ourselves that vector-borne diseases such as West Nile virus, dengue fever, zika, chikungungya + malaria are increasing their ranges globally. The photo, from the CDC, is a classic. The female mosquito still has her proboscis stuck in human skin, with a stream of blood visualized there, much of the abdomen filled with it, + excess fluid being excreted.

S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · 8d

AAAS: “Mysterious will-o’-the-wisps ignited by microlightning.” Electrical sparks from tiny bubbles offers a new explanation for the ‘fleeting flames of folklore.’ Myths attempted to explain the will-o’-the-wisp, the fleeting flames occasionally seen above swamps + graveyards in the dark of Moon.

Swamp gas. Scientists have long assumed the flickers arose from flammable methane gas produced by decaying organic matter, but could not explain its ignition. “Now, new research suggests that tiny lightning bursts jumping between microscopic bubbles can spark the phenomena [sometimes also called a jack-o’-lantern].” James Anderson, a chemist at Harvard, ‘says the power of microbubbles to trigger reactions could also help explain how essential biomolecules formed prior to the dawn of life.’ Several days ago the work was published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
Richard Zare, a chemist at Stanford, + his colleagues have studied how tiny bubbles, just nanometers to micrometers in size, can generate strong electric fields, sparking reactions. “When bubbles of different sizes form at the interface between water and air, charges on their surfaces separate, with negative charges accumulating on smaller bubbles, leaving larger ones more positively charged.” The potential difference or voltage creates electric fields across small distances that trigger what amounts to bursts of microlightning as the charges attempt to equalize. “Zare’s team designed a machine with a submerged nozzle that blew microbubbles of methane and air into water…[and, sure enough] high-speed cameras then caught tiny flashes of light as bubbles collided. They noted that flashes occurred even when only air was injected, suggesting the microlightning results from the charge separation, not from spontaneous ignition of the methane. “However, when methane bubbles were present as well as air, the amount of light increased and temperatures rose.” Zare’s team showed bubble-driven reactions can forge bonds between amino acids to make peptides, + as bonds between nucleic acids to make polynucleotides, which are essential building blocks for life. Conclusions remains a bit tenuous—just like the delicate flames of the will-o’-the-wisp. Arrives just in time for this month’s holiday.

S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · 10d

The parable of the prodigal son somehow appealed to me for this personal—not political or scientific post—though I have more enjoyed reading authors like Richard Dawkins + Daniel Dennet than reading the Bible.

Prodigal Son. Today I simply announce that my wife and I have returned from a couple of wks of vacation. Nothing exotic, but visiting friends + family in Missouri, Illinois, Ohio + finally the longest stretch in New York, where we had a celebration of life for my wonderful mother-in-law and matriarch of that large family. We then balanced that out with a wedding for one of our last unmarried nieces several days later. So life goes on. I will confess here I was hoping to round up another couple of wedding couples to parallel a certain movie, but that of course did not play out.
My policy has always been to not post while traveling, parting because I lack the large monitor which I use at home with my desktop computer. And partly because I am of retirement age + view vacation as a sacred right. As a penultimate note, I used to have the amount of hair you see in the photo, but that is only a memory. As a final note I will quote George Bernard Shaw: “I learned long ago, never to wrestle with a pig. You get dirty, and besides, the pig likes it.” [Perhaps a commentary on our current politics].
I pledge to return to regular posting tomorrow morning. See you then.

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S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · 28d

AAAS: “Scientists directly date dino eggshells for the first time.” In what is now Hubei province in China, in a site called Qinglongshan, from roughly 100 to 60 millions of yrs ago—the Upper Cretaceous period—dinosaurs of many species apparently found an ideal nesting site.

Fossilized dinosaur egg. The place abounds with fossilized eggs. “In a study out today in Frontiers in Earth Science, researchers report that they have directly dated these preserved eggshells, tightly constraining when the eggs were laid—a first for dinosaur eggs that promises more detailed study of the ancient creatures.” Eggs that failed to hatch were buried by slow processes rather than lava flow, hence encased in sedimentary rather than igneous rock.
Problem is igneous rock is easier to date by a host of radioactive elements whose gradual decay acts like ticking clocks. “Previously, researchers had narrowed the age of some fossils at Qinglongshan to between 83 million and 79 million years ago by matching magnetic polarity patterns in the rocks to known records of Earth’s periodic polarity reversals.” [Each time the polarity of Earth’s magnetic poles reverses, this creates a new band in the rock that corresponds to a particular time range].
But another technique made use of uranium incorporated into the calcite within the fossilized eggshells, which can be used to measure the decay of radioactive uranium into lead at a fixed rate. [Calcite is a carbonate mineral, the most stable polymorph of calcium carbonate (CaCO3), in medicine used as antacid or as a dietary supplement for bone health + other functions]. “After embedding four calcite samples from [an] egg in resin, they used a laser to free the uranium and lead atoms contained within.” A mass spectrometer revealed the ratio of those two elements, allowing researchers to calculate their age based on the decay rate of uranium into lead. “These efforts showed the eggs were laid 86 million years ago, during a global cooling period toward the end of the Cretaceous period.” And what species of dinosaur did this turn out to be? No drum roll here, not yet, so all we can say is that these are very old eggs. This is an excellent outcome, as every finding in science should lead to more useful questions.

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S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · 29d

AAAS: “Thawing permafrost is turning Arctic rivers orange—spelling trouble for fish.” In 1977 author John McPhee wrote that the Salmon River, in remote northwestern Alaska, had “the clearest, purest water I have ever seen.”

Melting permafrost leaching toxins into rivers in Alaska. But in 2019, ‘the river turned orange and yellow, reminiscent of acidic runoff from mining waste.’ Times change: “the river and many of its tributaries are now laced with toxic metals, leached from thawing permafrost, at levels that can harm aquatic life, scientists report today in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.” The broader problem: “In 2024, scientists reported that at least 75 streams—including the Salmon—recently turned orange in the Brooks Range, the mountain chain that stretches east to west across northern Alaska.” Melting permafrost in some sites releases metals such as iron, in others thawing can expose bedrock rich in sulfides. “When the sulfides encounter water they can oxidize, forming sulfuric acid, which in turn dissolves metals trapped in the rock such as iron, aluminum, copper, and cadmium.” Paddy Sullivan, a University of Alaska Anchorage ecologist, ‘has found more than 500 places along the Salmon and surrounding watersheds where highly acidic water seeps from thawing permafrost, killing vegetation before flowing into waterways.’ He and his colleagues measured the abundance of 22 metals in water samples collected in 2022 and 2023 along the Salmon and 10 tributaries. “The river’s main stem and nine of its tributaries had at least one metal present above levels that would be toxic to water-dwelling organisms, according to U.S. Environmental Protection Agency standards.” At one spot along the main river, ‘levels of iron, aluminum, cadmium, copper, nickel, and zinc were between three and 37 times higher in 2023 than in samples from a decade earlier.’
Water acidity not increased due buffering from limestone.Places with higher levels of iron + aluminum often devoid of larval aquatic insects such as stoneflies + mayflies, a critical source of fish food. “Sullivan wonders whether the flush of toxic metals might be harming salmon populations, which began to decline in 2023.”

S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · Sep 10

This is no laughing matter. I’m way short of time this morning, so let me just say I’m almost done reading at great book entitled Waste Wars: The Wild Afterlife of your Trash, published this yr.

Tom Toro cartoon. Author Alexander Clapp has done excellent sleuthing to amass a trove of information, + I have several pages of notes in the back to be transcribed into my computer. Much of recycling is a scam pushed by the petroleum industries to think the approximately 100,000 types [not 7] of plastic are actually recyclable. And that they are shoving responsibility onto consumers for the plastification of the planet. This cartoon—with its ‘chasing arrows emblem’—seems apropos considering what revelations I am discovering.

S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · Sep 9

Guardian: "Climate crisis will increase frequency of lightning-sparked wildfires, study finds." > lightning-caused fires is 'probably making wildfires more deadly by producing more wildfire smoke + helping drive a surge in air quality issues from coast to coast, especially over past several yrs.'

Wildfire in article. My part of the country, "over the last 40 yrs, thunderstorms and other weather conditions favoring lightning have been happening more often across many parts of the US west, including western Washington, western Oregon, the California Central valley, and higher elevations throughout the Rocky Mountains." Europe has been drawn in as well. "This year’s fire season has been the worst in European history, driven in part by lightning-caused wildfires in Spain." In Canada, "huge fires this year have burned more than 200% of normal forest area, the vast majority of which were caused by lightning." Dmitri Kalashnikov, a climate scientist at the Sierra Nevada Research Institute at University of California-Merced, is the lead author of a study [https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF006108] published last wk, the first to use machine learning techniques to tackle this problem. They examined data 'looking at future changes in lightning frequency and changes in weather variables like air temperature, humidity, wind and soil moisture that can predict how likely a fire is to spread.' Consonant with these projections, "thousands of lightning strikes this week have sparked at least 20 new fires and burned tens of thousands of acres across California’s Central valley and into the foothills of the Sierra Nevada, with one fire destroying several structures in the Gold Rush-era settlement of Chinese Camp east of Modesto." In contrast, the study projects 98% more lightning-instigated wildfires in the western US “due to more lightning, or more fire weather, or both," but with the Pacific Northwest relatively spared because a 'moistening environment.' "Over a recent 15-year span, wildfire smoke killed about a thousand people in the US each year...a surge in lightning-caused fires could cause America’s smoke epidemic to take the lives of potentially more than 20,000 people a year by mid-century." Flash flood, mudslides, smoke particles on glaciers. Emergency response split.

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S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · Sep 8

CanaryMedia: “Trump admin blocks funds for farmers who want solar.” U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins doesn’t often star in the mainstream media, but she is critical impediment to rational agricultural policy, including use of solar arrays to support farmers + their income.🧪

Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins. “The Rural Energy for America Program [REAP] has for years helped thousands of American farmers pay for solar panels that lower their energy bills and earn them extra income.” Gotta love that acronym for farmers. REAP is restricting funding as outlined in a recent internal Ag Department memo obtained by Canary Media. On Aug. 19, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins announced, “USDA will no longer fund taxpayer dollars for solar panels on productive farmland or allow solar panels manufactured by foreign adversaries to be used in USDA projects.” The internal memo stated that any 1 of 4 characteristics would make solar projects ineligible for REAP loan guarantees + thereby “disincentivized” in the point system used to award REAP grants. “Ground-mounted projects over 50 kilowatts will no longer receive loan guarantees, nor will projects on land certified as cropland by the Farm Service Agency.” Loan guarantees will be denied for plots that can’t show “historical energy use,” and for “systems consisting of any component made in a country named as a foreign adversary.” Loan guarantees are a powerful tool for financing farmers at ‘little cost to the federal government, since the loans are usually repaid without the financial institution needing to tap the guarantee.’ Large solar arrays are typically on open land that hasn’t previously consumed energy, “and smaller installations powering a farm might also be in that situation, so the requirement to show historical use could be a serious blow to eligibility.” Further, “almost all solar panels include components from China, which would run afoul of the final provision.” I have to give credit to the Ag Department for crafting such a Rubik’s Cube of bureaucratic stonewalling of efforts to help farmers. Shooting themselves in the foot.

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S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · Sep 8

Very sleek looking.

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S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · Sep 7

YaleClimateConnections: “U.S. mines are literally throwing away critical minerals.” America has dozens of active mines, some for copper, others for iron. The main targeted component is a small fraction of the rock extracted.

Abandoned Cu mine in New Mexico. Elizabeth Holley, a professor of mining engineering at Colorado School of Mines, in a study published by journal Science, found that, across 70 critical elements at 54 active mines, the potential for recovery is enormous. Enough lithium per yr to supply 10 million EVs. Enough manganese for 99 million EVs. “Those figures far surpass both U.S. import levels of those elements + current demand for them.” Critical minerals are also essential for production of batteries, solar panels, and other low- or zero-carbon technologies powering the clean energy transition. “Where the U.S. gets those minerals has long been a [geopolitically] fraught topic.” Almost all the lithium is derived from Australia, Chile, and China, for example, while cobalt predominantly comes from the Democratic Republic of the Congo. In rare bipartisan unity, “former president Joe Biden’s landmark climate legislation, the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, included incentives for domestic critical mineral production, and this year, President Donald Trump signed an executive order invoking wartime powers that would allow more leasing and extraction on federal lands.” Holley’s research indicates that increased domestic byproduct recovery—even at a 1% rate— would “substantially reduce” import reliance for most elements; recovering 4% of lithium would completely offset current imports.“We could focus on mines that are already corporate and simply add additional circuits to their process,” said Holley. “The Department of Energy recently announced a byproduct recovery pilot program…at same time…Congress recently slashed federal funding to the U.S. Geological Survey and the Department of Energy’s Office of Science, among other research arms.” The Red Dog mine in Alaska appears to have the largest germanium potential in the country, while nickel could be found at the Stillwater and East Boulder mines in Montana. This is for the deniers who say the U.S. doesn’t have enough lithium.

S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · Sep 6

CanaryMedia: “Chart: Yes, US power prices are rising. Don’t blame clean energy.” Consumer costs have been going up since 2020 due to an aging grid, climate disasters, and volatile methane/natural gas prices.

Retail price of U.S. electricity. White House policies—especially 200 executive orders + counting—are making things worse. “Average price for residential consumers set to hit 17¢ per kWh this yr, could climb to 18¢ per kWh in 2026, per a new report from EIA.” Price of electricity is spiking at twice the rate of inflation. ”Just five years ago, in 2020, average U.S. power prices were only 13.15¢ per kilowatt-hour—23% lower than they are today.” Gauging that impact, consider that each additional cent will tack on roughly $108 to the average U.S. home’s expenses each year. “Solar, wind, and batteries are the cheapest form of power, and a 2024 report from research group Energy Innovation found no correlation between renewable energy adoption and utility rate increases.” Republican leaders like U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright would have us believe the fault lies in the large amounts of clean energy hitting the grid, but he is just blowing smoke—probably from a coal-burner. “Numerous reports and studies reveal that the core drivers of rising prices include an aging distribution grid that requires expensive repairs, and damage to the system from the wildfires and storms exacerbated by climate change.” Not to mention the volatile commodity price of methane/natural gas, currently responsible for about 40% of U.S. electricity. “Skyrocketing demand for power is also increasingly a factor, as people electrify their homes, businesses, and cars, and in particular as data-center developers snap up as much energy as they can to support their AI ambitions.” Energy efficiency such as LED light bulbs + heat pumps, demand response in a smart grid, distributed solar + storage in residences and small businesses are just some of the solutions. “It’s expected that 93% of the new electricity capacity built this year will be solar, wind, or batteries.” Due to GOP megalaw, U.S. could install as much as 62% less clean energy over the next decade. That sound you hear is me grinding my teeth.

S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · Sep 5

AAAS: "Mosquito-borne viruses surge in a warming Europe." European Centre for Disease Prevention + Control (ECDC) Director Pamela Rendi-Wagner reported, "Europe is entering a new phase—where longer, more widespread and more intense transmission of mosquito-borne diseases is becoming the new normal."

Truck spraying pesticide against mosquitoes in Italy. Tamás Bakonyi, a veterinarian and virologist who is ECDC’s principal expert for vector-borne and zoonotic diseases, stated "this year’s intense season for mosquito-borne diseases was 'probably influenced by or supported by' an extraordinarily hot summer, particularly in Western Europe." Hot weather favors mosquito reproduction, + shortens the time for an insect carrying a virus to become infectious. "Chikungunya virus, which infects an estimated 35 million people globally each year, can cause fever, headache, rash, and excruciating joint pain, and sometimes leads to severe, chronic pain." The main surge in Europe occurred in France, 'where cases in returning travelers numbered 946 as of 26 August, dwarfing numbers in the past decade.' Most were imported from the French overseas department of Réunion, 'a popular Indian Ocean vacation destination for French travelers, which had a huge outbreak this spring and is part of a tropical belt where the virus is endemic.' The key vector, 'the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus), has spread widely in Europe in the past 10 years as the climate has warmed, these imported cases have led to local transmission,' 228 of them to date. Meanwhile, cases of West Nile virus (WNV), caused by a virus that is widespread in the U.S., are being detected in new areas in Europe every year. "This year, they have been reported in nine countries from Spain to Romania and reached a 3-year high of 525 cases, driven by the large outbreak in Italy." The vector is mosquitoes of the genus Culex that have bitten birds that are natural reservoirs of the virus, especially corvids like crows, ravens, magpies + jays in the US, not sure which birds in Europe. WNV can cause fever, headache, muscle pain, + 'especially in the elderly and immunocompromised, the virus can invade the central nervous system, sometimes with deadly consequences.' One of the many manifestations of the corroding climate.

S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · Sep 4

AAAS: “Human ancestors braved England’s ice-covered northlands 440,000 years ago.” Ancient humans, ‘possibly a long-ago ancestor called Homo antecessor, moved into Northern Europe roughly a million years ago, leaving rare but striking evidence of their presence.

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S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · Sep 3

CanaryMedia: “Texas created a $7.2B fund for gas plants. Hardly any are being built.” In the winter of 2021, Winter Storm Uri plunged most of the state into blackouts during freezing weather for days, leaving hundreds of people dead.

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S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · Sep 2

CanaryMedia: “Chart: The retiring coal power plants Trump could revive.” The Energy Department keeps ordering expensive, polluting plants to keep operating under duress, disadvantaging both utilities + ratepayers.

Bar chart of FF slated to be shut down. “About 27 GW worth of coal slated to retire in US. by end of 2028, per Energy Information Administration data, equal to ~ 15% of country’s current coal fleet.” Chart projects through 4 yrs of Trump’s last term, + in spite of title covers oil + gas as well—all the FF. “As methane gas became more abundant + renewables plummeted in cost, > 140 gigawatts’ worth of coal plants retired since 2011, when dirty energy source peaked at nearly 318 GW of generation capacity. As direct result, power sector carbon emissions have fallen steadily over same period. President is making a rearguard attempt to put a stop to coal’s demise. “On his first day in office, Trump declared a national energy emergency that experts have called baseless + which is now being challenged by 15 states in court.”
The “emergency” is also belied by Trump’s efforts to obstruct clean energy, which for years has accounted for over 90% of new electricity added to the grid. “In May, the Trump administration issued 90-day stay-open orders for two facilities set to close days later: the J.H. Campbell coal plant in Michigan and the Eddystone oil- and gas-burning plant in Pennsylvania.” Michigan’s Public Service Commission chair argues the first 3 months of continuing to operate J.H. Campbell alone could cost consumers as much as $100 M. In July, the Department of Energy released a specious report that overstates the risk of grid blackouts. “States are attempting to make the agency fix the report, which they expect will be used to justify additional emergency stay-open orders for other coal plants.” By the end of Trump’s term, blocking all planned closures of fossil-fuel power plants could result in billions of dollars in additional yearly energy costs for consumers. Thus, more fossil fuel support paired with suppression of renewables = more carbon emissions, more pollution, higher electricity costs, ultimately higher risk of grid instability with brownouts + blackouts.

S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · Sep 1

AAAS: "Trust in elections rises after ‘inoculations’ meant to preempt false fraud claims." Torrents of false and misleading information can now spread faster than ever before, thanks in part to favorable incentives for those who create and distribute it online.

Supporters of Bolsonaro after election loss. Jan2023, thousands of people stormed Brazil’s National Congress convinced country’s presidential election had been “stolen” from preferred candidate, Jair Bolsonaro. "Incident wasn’t just a stark reminder that unfounded claims of election fraud are spread by politicians beyond US—also another chance to test ways that such election misinformation might be countered." In the U.S. and Brazil, people’s trust in elections increased when shown examples of officials belonging to the losing side rejecting claims of voter fraud, reported today in Science Advances. For instance, 'during the 2022 U.S. midterm elections, Nyhan and Reifler found Republicans’ belief that former President Joe Biden rightfully won the 2020 election increased from 32.5% to 43.8% when shown Republican sources, such as former Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (KY), that supported the election results.' Similarly, Republicans’ trust in the 2020 election results increased from 32.5% to 38.5% within a group inoculated against misinformation related to the 2022 midterm elections. Nyhan and Reifler delved deeper into so-called 'prebunking.' The researchers divided > 2000 U.S. participants into 3 groups. One group received both a forewarning they might encounter misinformation, plus information on debunked fraud claims, second group received only the debunking information, + third [control] group neither intervention. The first 2 groups increased their trust in elections + the effect is strongest in those with the lowest trust to begin with. Election officials + journalists should "spend some time thinking through some of the possible rumors that might emerge in upcoming elections, identify how those rumors rely upon certain misunderstandings of election process, and develop [and] deploy prebunking messaging that helps fill in conceptual gaps that these rumors and intentional falsehoods exploit.” Not surprising: trusted information sources are persuasive.

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S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · Aug 31

Atmosphere: "Study on non-exhaust emissions in road dust," Brake dust is radically different from tire wear. Greater penetration of EVs is changing urban air quality in a second beneficial way which has nothing to do with eliminating tailpipe emissions.

$Brake dust mixed with other dirt on car wheels. "A new analysis in London, Milan, and Barcelona shows battery electric cars cut brake dust by about 83% thanks to regenerative braking." However, the tradeoff is electric cars also tend to be heavier, so they can increase tiny particles from tire wear even as brake dust plummets. "Benedetto Giechaskiel, PhD, European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRCs ), has led peer-reviewed work into how pads, discs, filters, and regenerative braking shape these non-exhaust particles." EV drivetrains convert velocity or kinetic energy largely back into battery charging, so the friction brakes work less, slashing the dust [as seen in the photo] that otherwise becomes airborne near crosswalks and bus stops. And brake dust tends to produce more airborne fine particles at the curb, which is what drivers, passenger, cyclists + pedestrians inhale. Notably, "only a small fraction of tire wear becomes airborne PM10, with one comprehensive review estimating about 1%." And most tire fragments settle on roadsides, wash into drains or are cleaned up by street sweeping vehicles. "Particulate matter is not one thing but a mix of sizes and chemistries, and the smallest particles, PM2.5, are the fractionmost closely tied to asthma attacks, heart strain, and early death." Brake dust also carries metals like copper + iron, while tires shed rubbery microplastics + sulfur compounds." While there is currently a tradeoff, the weight of batteries + motors is trending downwards, so this problem may disappear. Clearly, brake dust is dangerous + an 83% reduction is music to my ears.$

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