Spyros Andreopoulos
@thinicemacro.bsky.social
Macroeconomist, politics junkie, wine lover. Ex ECB, BNP, Morgan Stanley. I blog on macro, central banks, climate on thinicemacroeconomics.substack.com.
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem... My #ECB review. Two interesting morsels out of an otherwise boring meeting. #eurozone #euro #thinicemacro
ECB Meeting Review: What Monetary Policy?
We do digital euro now
open.substack.com
October 30, 2025 at 4:14 PM
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem... My #ECB review. Two interesting morsels out of an otherwise boring meeting. #eurozone #euro #thinicemacro
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
#ECB #meeting preview. The #eurozone low excitement #economy means there will be few surprises next week out of Frankfurt. #Lagarde #euro #Fed
#ECB #meeting preview. The #eurozone low excitement #economy means there will be few surprises next week out of Frankfurt. #Lagarde #euro #Fed
ECB Preview: Low Excitement Equilibrium
December cut could be in play though
open.substack.com
October 25, 2025 at 8:23 AM
Why #Germany’s #industry continues to struggle: open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
#eurozone #economy #euro #ECB #globalmacro #thinicemacro
#eurozone #economy #euro #ECB #globalmacro #thinicemacro
German Industry: An Autopsy
Murder or suicide?
open.substack.com
October 13, 2025 at 7:02 AM
Why #Germany’s #industry continues to struggle: open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
#eurozone #economy #euro #ECB #globalmacro #thinicemacro
#eurozone #economy #euro #ECB #globalmacro #thinicemacro
#ECB Sep meeting minutes: easing bias under the hood
👉 substack.com/@spyrosandre...
#accounts #euro #Lagarde #thinicemacro
👉 substack.com/@spyrosandre...
#accounts #euro #Lagarde #thinicemacro
Spyros Andreopoulos (@spyrosandreopoulos)
🇪🇺 ECB Sep meeting minutes: easing bias under the hood? 💶
👉 The song remains the same. The controversies covered the usual topics: the #euro, whether it would appreciate further, and what it does to ...
substack.com
October 9, 2025 at 1:10 PM
#ECB Sep meeting minutes: easing bias under the hood
👉 substack.com/@spyrosandre...
#accounts #euro #Lagarde #thinicemacro
👉 substack.com/@spyrosandre...
#accounts #euro #Lagarde #thinicemacro
Will Stablecoins Turbocharge the Exorbitant Privilege? open.substack.com/pub/thinicem... In the long term, it’s still the US’ #fiscal probity and the ability of the #Fed to deliver low and stable #inflation that will determine whether the #dollar maintains its position. #institutions #stablecoins
Will Stablecoins Turbocharge the Exorbitant Privilege?
Back to the basics
open.substack.com
September 21, 2025 at 1:44 PM
Will Stablecoins Turbocharge the Exorbitant Privilege? open.substack.com/pub/thinicem... In the long term, it’s still the US’ #fiscal probity and the ability of the #Fed to deliver low and stable #inflation that will determine whether the #dollar maintains its position. #institutions #stablecoins
The #ECB #governingcouncil will keep rates unch in September. I exp staff #inflation #projections to be lowered slightly. That should make for more nuanced #communication than in July.
#eurozone #euro #centralbankmeetings #Lagarde #Fed #globalmacro #thinicemacro
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
#eurozone #euro #centralbankmeetings #Lagarde #Fed #globalmacro #thinicemacro
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
Dispatch€s from Frankfurt - ECB Preview: Wait-and-Watch Continues
... but more nuance on inflation
open.substack.com
September 7, 2025 at 9:53 AM
The #ECB #governingcouncil will keep rates unch in September. I exp staff #inflation #projections to be lowered slightly. That should make for more nuanced #communication than in July.
#eurozone #euro #centralbankmeetings #Lagarde #Fed #globalmacro #thinicemacro
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
#eurozone #euro #centralbankmeetings #Lagarde #Fed #globalmacro #thinicemacro
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
Frankfurt, We Have a (China) Problem
#Decoupling between import #volumes – soaring – and values in #EUR – moving sideways: increased #China #price #competitiveness, no doubt helped by the #depreciation of the #yuan against the EUR. This is not lost on the #ECB. Expect lower rates in Q4.
#Decoupling between import #volumes – soaring – and values in #EUR – moving sideways: increased #China #price #competitiveness, no doubt helped by the #depreciation of the #yuan against the EUR. This is not lost on the #ECB. Expect lower rates in Q4.
September 1, 2025 at 11:12 AM
Frankfurt, We Have a (China) Problem
#Decoupling between import #volumes – soaring – and values in #EUR – moving sideways: increased #China #price #competitiveness, no doubt helped by the #depreciation of the #yuan against the EUR. This is not lost on the #ECB. Expect lower rates in Q4.
#Decoupling between import #volumes – soaring – and values in #EUR – moving sideways: increased #China #price #competitiveness, no doubt helped by the #depreciation of the #yuan against the EUR. This is not lost on the #ECB. Expect lower rates in Q4.
Fed Independence: Pressure Cooking
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
Institutional structure by itself will not be sufficient to maintain Fed #independence.
#markets #fiscaldominance #Powell #Bessent #Trump #USdollar #inflation #interestrates #governmentdebt #globalmacro #thinicemacro
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
Institutional structure by itself will not be sufficient to maintain Fed #independence.
#markets #fiscaldominance #Powell #Bessent #Trump #USdollar #inflation #interestrates #governmentdebt #globalmacro #thinicemacro
Fed Independence: Pressure Cooking
People make institutions
open.substack.com
August 31, 2025 at 8:13 AM
Fed Independence: Pressure Cooking
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
Institutional structure by itself will not be sufficient to maintain Fed #independence.
#markets #fiscaldominance #Powell #Bessent #Trump #USdollar #inflation #interestrates #governmentdebt #globalmacro #thinicemacro
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
Institutional structure by itself will not be sufficient to maintain Fed #independence.
#markets #fiscaldominance #Powell #Bessent #Trump #USdollar #inflation #interestrates #governmentdebt #globalmacro #thinicemacro
Trump's Tariff Win: Lower Inflation Outside the US
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
Recent developments strengthen the case that #UStariffs will lower #inflation in affected economies.
#Trump #Eurozone #ECB #Japan #BoJ #euro #yen #China #exports #tradewar #centralbanks #globalmacro #thinicemacro
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
Recent developments strengthen the case that #UStariffs will lower #inflation in affected economies.
#Trump #Eurozone #ECB #Japan #BoJ #euro #yen #China #exports #tradewar #centralbanks #globalmacro #thinicemacro
Trump's Tariff Win: Lower Inflation Outside the US
Case for disinflation everywhere else now stronger
open.substack.com
August 10, 2025 at 10:28 AM
Trump's Tariff Win: Lower Inflation Outside the US
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
Recent developments strengthen the case that #UStariffs will lower #inflation in affected economies.
#Trump #Eurozone #ECB #Japan #BoJ #euro #yen #China #exports #tradewar #centralbanks #globalmacro #thinicemacro
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
Recent developments strengthen the case that #UStariffs will lower #inflation in affected economies.
#Trump #Eurozone #ECB #Japan #BoJ #euro #yen #China #exports #tradewar #centralbanks #globalmacro #thinicemacro
FX and Stock Prices: Look Under the Hood
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
#Equity #investors should look under the hood for the drivers of exchange rate moves to appreciate the read across for #stocks.
#thinicemacro #globalmacro #USeconomy #stockmarket #Europe #EU
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
#Equity #investors should look under the hood for the drivers of exchange rate moves to appreciate the read across for #stocks.
#thinicemacro #globalmacro #USeconomy #stockmarket #Europe #EU
FX and Stock Prices: Look Under the Hood
Is a strong currency good or bad for stocks?
open.substack.com
August 2, 2025 at 1:19 PM
FX and Stock Prices: Look Under the Hood
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
#Equity #investors should look under the hood for the drivers of exchange rate moves to appreciate the read across for #stocks.
#thinicemacro #globalmacro #USeconomy #stockmarket #Europe #EU
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
#Equity #investors should look under the hood for the drivers of exchange rate moves to appreciate the read across for #stocks.
#thinicemacro #globalmacro #USeconomy #stockmarket #Europe #EU
Dispatch€s from Frankfurt: ECB: July Pause, Tariffs Are Close open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
#ECB look to leave rates unch July 24. My central case remains for one more cut. A further increase in effective #tariff rate would tilt risks to 1.50%. #euroarea #US #Trump #euro #Lagarde #thinicemacro
#ECB look to leave rates unch July 24. My central case remains for one more cut. A further increase in effective #tariff rate would tilt risks to 1.50%. #euroarea #US #Trump #euro #Lagarde #thinicemacro
Dispatch€s from Frankfurt: ECB: July Pause, Tariffs Are Close
The elephant in the room
open.substack.com
July 21, 2025 at 7:53 AM
Dispatch€s from Frankfurt: ECB: July Pause, Tariffs Are Close open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
#ECB look to leave rates unch July 24. My central case remains for one more cut. A further increase in effective #tariff rate would tilt risks to 1.50%. #euroarea #US #Trump #euro #Lagarde #thinicemacro
#ECB look to leave rates unch July 24. My central case remains for one more cut. A further increase in effective #tariff rate would tilt risks to 1.50%. #euroarea #US #Trump #euro #Lagarde #thinicemacro
Bank of Japan: Whack-a-Mole open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
Why the #BankofJapan just can't normalize policy.
#yen #JPY #Ueda #Japan #trilemma #volatility #Trump #tariffs #normalization #interestrates #yieldcurvecontrol #financialstability #fiscalsustainability
Why the #BankofJapan just can't normalize policy.
#yen #JPY #Ueda #Japan #trilemma #volatility #Trump #tariffs #normalization #interestrates #yieldcurvecontrol #financialstability #fiscalsustainability
Bank of Japan: Whack-a-Mole
The trilemma strikes back
open.substack.com
July 12, 2025 at 9:54 AM
Bank of Japan: Whack-a-Mole open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
Why the #BankofJapan just can't normalize policy.
#yen #JPY #Ueda #Japan #trilemma #volatility #Trump #tariffs #normalization #interestrates #yieldcurvecontrol #financialstability #fiscalsustainability
Why the #BankofJapan just can't normalize policy.
#yen #JPY #Ueda #Japan #trilemma #volatility #Trump #tariffs #normalization #interestrates #yieldcurvecontrol #financialstability #fiscalsustainability
My Thin Ice Macroeconomics #blog on #Substack has been growing nicely.
But having a #Nobel #economist subscribe feels like a special recognition 😊 (🙏 @pkrugman.bsky.social)
If you haven’t yet, make sure you subscribe, it’s free: open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
#thinicemacro #thinicemacroeconomics
But having a #Nobel #economist subscribe feels like a special recognition 😊 (🙏 @pkrugman.bsky.social)
If you haven’t yet, make sure you subscribe, it’s free: open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
#thinicemacro #thinicemacroeconomics
July 10, 2025 at 8:56 AM
My Thin Ice Macroeconomics #blog on #Substack has been growing nicely.
But having a #Nobel #economist subscribe feels like a special recognition 😊 (🙏 @pkrugman.bsky.social)
If you haven’t yet, make sure you subscribe, it’s free: open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
#thinicemacro #thinicemacroeconomics
But having a #Nobel #economist subscribe feels like a special recognition 😊 (🙏 @pkrugman.bsky.social)
If you haven’t yet, make sure you subscribe, it’s free: open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
#thinicemacro #thinicemacroeconomics
ECB Strategy: Back to the Future open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
A close, critical look at the #ecb's updated #strategy. #Lagarde #thinicemacro #globalmacro #centralbanks #eurozone #europe #europeaneconomy #markets #euro
A close, critical look at the #ecb's updated #strategy. #Lagarde #thinicemacro #globalmacro #centralbanks #eurozone #europe #europeaneconomy #markets #euro
ECB Strategy: Back to the Future
Four critiques and a question
open.substack.com
July 6, 2025 at 5:48 PM
ECB Strategy: Back to the Future open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
A close, critical look at the #ecb's updated #strategy. #Lagarde #thinicemacro #globalmacro #centralbanks #eurozone #europe #europeaneconomy #markets #euro
A close, critical look at the #ecb's updated #strategy. #Lagarde #thinicemacro #globalmacro #centralbanks #eurozone #europe #europeaneconomy #markets #euro
Inching Towards Fiscal Dominance open.substack.com/pub/thinicem... Check out my latest #Substack, subscription is free!
#FederalReserve #Trump #fiscaldominance #Fedindependence #inflation #governmentdebt #debt #USTreasury #fiscalpolicy #QE #Powell #globalmacro #thinicemacro
#FederalReserve #Trump #fiscaldominance #Fedindependence #inflation #governmentdebt #debt #USTreasury #fiscalpolicy #QE #Powell #globalmacro #thinicemacro
Inching Towards Fiscal Dominance
One decision at a time
open.substack.com
June 29, 2025 at 12:21 PM
Inching Towards Fiscal Dominance open.substack.com/pub/thinicem... Check out my latest #Substack, subscription is free!
#FederalReserve #Trump #fiscaldominance #Fedindependence #inflation #governmentdebt #debt #USTreasury #fiscalpolicy #QE #Powell #globalmacro #thinicemacro
#FederalReserve #Trump #fiscaldominance #Fedindependence #inflation #governmentdebt #debt #USTreasury #fiscalpolicy #QE #Powell #globalmacro #thinicemacro
The #oilprice is up 15%+ past days. That’s not moving the needle for #USconsumers - the share of #gasoline and other #energy products in total #consumption spending (#PCE) is a v low 2%. The divergence has increased since the #pandemic due to strong income growth. #Fed #thinicemacro #globalmacro
June 17, 2025 at 2:08 PM
The #oilprice is up 15%+ past days. That’s not moving the needle for #USconsumers - the share of #gasoline and other #energy products in total #consumption spending (#PCE) is a v low 2%. The divergence has increased since the #pandemic due to strong income growth. #Fed #thinicemacro #globalmacro
The Geopolitical Euro open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
The Geopolitical Euro
Bulgaria accession edition
open.substack.com
June 17, 2025 at 2:06 PM
The Geopolitical Euro open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
Dispatch€s from Frankfurt: ECB: Mission Accomplished open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
I maintain my baseline for a 1.75% terminus in September.
#ecb #ecbmeeting #governingcouncil #lagarde #eurozone #euro #inflation #tariffs #globalmacro #thinicemacro
I maintain my baseline for a 1.75% terminus in September.
#ecb #ecbmeeting #governingcouncil #lagarde #eurozone #euro #inflation #tariffs #globalmacro #thinicemacro
Dispatch€s from Frankfurt: ECB: Mission Accomplished
Keeping inflation on target will likely require one more cut
open.substack.com
June 5, 2025 at 3:49 PM
Dispatch€s from Frankfurt: ECB: Mission Accomplished open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
I maintain my baseline for a 1.75% terminus in September.
#ecb #ecbmeeting #governingcouncil #lagarde #eurozone #euro #inflation #tariffs #globalmacro #thinicemacro
I maintain my baseline for a 1.75% terminus in September.
#ecb #ecbmeeting #governingcouncil #lagarde #eurozone #euro #inflation #tariffs #globalmacro #thinicemacro
Dispatch€s from Frankfurt: ECB: Rates Cut While U Wait open.substack.com/pub/thinicem... My preview of next week's #ECB meeting!
#Lagarde #tariffs #inflation #euro #Trump #centralbankmeetings #globalmacro #thinicemacro
#Lagarde #tariffs #inflation #euro #Trump #centralbankmeetings #globalmacro #thinicemacro
Dispatch€s from Frankfurt: ECB: Rates Cut While U Wait
... for the trade negotiations
open.substack.com
May 28, 2025 at 6:26 PM
Dispatch€s from Frankfurt: ECB: Rates Cut While U Wait open.substack.com/pub/thinicem... My preview of next week's #ECB meeting!
#Lagarde #tariffs #inflation #euro #Trump #centralbankmeetings #globalmacro #thinicemacro
#Lagarde #tariffs #inflation #euro #Trump #centralbankmeetings #globalmacro #thinicemacro
Germany's Investment Blockage open.substack.com/pub/thinicem... Temper your #euro bullishness!
Germany's Investment Blockage
... may be worse than you think
open.substack.com
May 25, 2025 at 12:02 PM
Germany's Investment Blockage open.substack.com/pub/thinicem... Temper your #euro bullishness!
We the People vs Capitalism open.substack.com/pub/thinicem... There is a tension between #MAGA and investors: the latter want constraints on the executive. #Trump #dollar #USTreasuries #debt #Fed #globalmacro #thinicemacro
We the People vs Capitalism
Trump, investors, the Fed, and the dollar
open.substack.com
May 12, 2025 at 6:52 AM
We the People vs Capitalism open.substack.com/pub/thinicem... There is a tension between #MAGA and investors: the latter want constraints on the executive. #Trump #dollar #USTreasuries #debt #Fed #globalmacro #thinicemacro
Do Sell in May open.substack.com/pub/thinicem... Why the current #sweetspot for #USequities can't last. #tariffs #stocks #fed #Trump #taxcuts #USTreasury #profits #margins #globalmacro #thinicemacro
Do Sell in May
The current sweet spot for stocks won't last
open.substack.com
May 4, 2025 at 2:52 PM
Do Sell in May open.substack.com/pub/thinicem... Why the current #sweetspot for #USequities can't last. #tariffs #stocks #fed #Trump #taxcuts #USTreasury #profits #margins #globalmacro #thinicemacro
