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tlalpha.bsky.social
Tier1 Alpha
@tlalpha.bsky.social
Harnessing Market Structure through Options, Volatility, Passive flows, and Systematic Rebalancing. Exclusively Distributed through @Hedgeye
Vanguard TDFs switched to a threshold strategy around 2021. This, combined with daily rebalancing from inflows/outflows, shook out most of this effect.

Interestingly, this means TDFs are usually around 2% off their glidepath targets and typically overweight stocks vs bonds.
March 22, 2025 at 11:56 PM
Interested in some weekend reading on Market Structure?

This is a great book to get started.
March 16, 2025 at 6:02 AM
Traditional breadth models have lost some of their signal strength in recent years as $SPX has become increasingly top-heavy. However, with index leaders on the decline, these models may start to regain some relevance.

Currently, 200-day breadth sits at just 38% of the index.
March 13, 2025 at 1:07 AM