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Tobias Gerstenberg @tobigerstenberg.bsky.social · 7d

I had a wonderful time visiting UC Irvine to give a talk in the cognitive science colloquium. Thank you @annaleshinskaya.bsky.social for being a fantastic host, and to all the other faculty, students, and postdocs I got to meet during my visit 🙏

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Reposted by Tobias Gerstenberg

Cognition @cognitionjournal.bsky.social · 17d

"A signaling theory of self-handicapping"

📢New from: @yangxiang.bsky.social @gershbrain.bsky.social @tobigerstenberg.bsky.social

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

A signaling theory of self-handicapping

People use various strategies to bolster the perception of their competence. One strategy is self-handicapping, by which people deliberately impede th…

www.sciencedirect.com

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Reposted by Tobias Gerstenberg

Yang Xiang @yangxiang.bsky.social · 20d

Now out in Cognition, work with the great @gershbrain.bsky.social @tobigerstenberg.bsky.social on formalizing self-handicapping as rational signaling!
📃 authors.elsevier.com/a/1lo8f2Hx2-...

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Tobias Gerstenberg @tobigerstenberg.bsky.social · 22d

Yes, the physics engine will always simulate a full trajectory -- although we see in people's eye-movements that they sometimes only consider partial trajectories, and that they jump quickly from one critical point in the trajectory (e.g. an obstacle collision) to another point.

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Tobias Gerstenberg @tobigerstenberg.bsky.social · 23d

Simulating world models supports strong multimodal inferences. Prior work modeled multimodal inference as optimal averaging. But in the "Sound + Ball Occluded" condition each modality alone is useless (only hearing sounds, or only seeing obstacles). Combining both sources reveals what happened!

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Tobias Gerstenberg @tobigerstenberg.bsky.social · 23d

The Sequential Sampler accurately captures people's judgments and eye-movements across the three inference conditions.

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Tobias Gerstenberg @tobigerstenberg.bsky.social · 23d

The model also predicts eye-movements. It assumes that people look at visual features of the scene, but also at dynamic features that are the consequence of mentally simulating how the ball would fall and collide with the obstacles and walls if it was dropped into the different holes.

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Tobias Gerstenberg @tobigerstenberg.bsky.social · 23d

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Tobias Gerstenberg @tobigerstenberg.bsky.social · 23d

We develop a sequential sampling model which assumes that people simulate different possibilities proportional to their plausibility. The model performs Bayesian inference by conditioning on the available evidence step-by-step.

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Tobias Gerstenberg @tobigerstenberg.bsky.social · 23d

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Tobias Gerstenberg @tobigerstenberg.bsky.social · 23d

In the inference task, participants get different combinations of evidence:

(1) No Sound + Ball Visible: Only see the ball.
(2) Sound + Ball Visible: Hear collisions, then see the ball.
(3) Sound + Ball Occluded: Hear collisions, don't see the ball.

We record judgments ⚖️ and eye-movements 👀.

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Tobias Gerstenberg @tobigerstenberg.bsky.social · 23d

In the prediction task, participants click 10 times where the ball will allowing them to express their uncertainty in a structured way. Their predictions are very well explained (r=0.99) by a physics simulation model that assumes that people are unsure about how the ball drops and how it collides.

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Tobias Gerstenberg @tobigerstenberg.bsky.social · 23d

We created "Plinko" - a physics reasoning task where people:

🔮 PREDICT where a ball will land (forward reasoning)
🕵️ INFER where a ball came from using visual + auditory cues (backward reasoning)

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Tobias Gerstenberg @tobigerstenberg.bsky.social · 23d

🚨 NEW PREPRINT: Multimodal inference through mental simulation.

We examine how people figure out what happened by combining visual and auditory evidence through mental simulation.

Paper: osf.io/preprints/ps...
Code: github.com/cicl-stanfor...

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Tobias Gerstenberg @tobigerstenberg.bsky.social · 23d

This is an epic paper!

I very much enjoyed chatting with @dyamins.bsky.social about the connections between world models and counterfactual simulation.

Dan Yamins @dyamins.bsky.social · 23d

Here is our best thinking about how to make world models. I would apologize for it being a massive 40-page behemoth, but it's worth reading. arxiv.org/pdf/2509.09737

arxiv.org

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Reposted by Tobias Gerstenberg

Rachit Dubey @rachitdubey.bsky.social · Sep 3

My lab at UCLA is hiring 1-2 PhD students this cycle!

Join us to work at the intersection of cognitive science and AI applied to pressing societal challenges like climate change.

More info about me: rachit-dubey.github.io

My lab: ucla-cocopol.github.io

Please help repost/spread the word!

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Reposted by Tobias Gerstenberg

Mike Frank @mcxfrank.bsky.social · Sep 2

*Sharing for our department’s trainees*

🧠 Looking for insight on applying to PhD programs in psychology?

✨ Apply by Sep 25th to Stanford Psychology's 9th annual Paths to a Psychology PhD info-session/workshop to have all of your questions answered!

📝 Application: tinyurl.com/pathstophd2025

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Tobias Gerstenberg @tobigerstenberg.bsky.social · Aug 20

congratulations 🎉

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Reposted by Tobias Gerstenberg

Russ Poldrack @russpoldrack.org · Aug 20

Our department is seeking applicants for an Assistant Professor position with a focus on affective science. Please apply and/or pass this along to anyone who might be interested! facultypositions.stanford.edu/en-us/job/49...

Stanford | Faculty Positions: Details - Assistant Professor, Psychology

facultypositions.stanford.edu

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Reposted by Tobias Gerstenberg

tal boger @talboger.bsky.social · Aug 19

On the left is a rabbit. On the right is an elephant. But guess what: They’re the *same image*, rotated 90°!

In @currentbiology.bsky.social, @chazfirestone.bsky.social & I show how these images—known as “visual anagrams”—can help solve a longstanding problem in cognitive science. bit.ly/45BVnCZ

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Reposted by Tobias Gerstenberg

Erik Brockbank @erikbrockbank.bsky.social · Aug 12

How do we predict what others will do next? 🤔
We look for patterns. But what are the limits of this ability?
In our new paper at CCN 2025 (@cogcompneuro.bsky.social), we explore the computational constraints of human pattern recognition using the classic game of Rock, Paper, Scissors 🗿📄✂️

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Reposted by Tobias Gerstenberg

Setayesh Radkani @setayeshradkani.bsky.social · Aug 8

🚨Out in PNAS🚨
with @joshtenenbaum.bsky.social & @rebeccasaxe.bsky.social

Punishment, even when intended to teach norms and change minds for the good, may backfire.

Our computational cognitive model explains why!

Paper: tinyurl.com/yc7fs4x7
News: tinyurl.com/3h3446wu

🧵

PNAS

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), a peer reviewed journal of the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) - an authoritative source of high-impact, original research that broadly spans...

tinyurl.com

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Tobias Gerstenberg @tobigerstenberg.bsky.social · Aug 2

Brilliant keynote by @laurennross.bsky.social at #cogsci2025 on cognitive science and its philosophy. Lauren pointed out the myriad ways in which cogsci and philosophy support and benefit one another, using explanation and causal reasoning as case studies. Thank you for a great talk!! 🙏

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Tobias Gerstenberg @tobigerstenberg.bsky.social · Aug 1

Josh Tenenbaum's inspiring keynote at #cogsci2025 on growing vs scaling AI, the big questions of cognitive science, and the many open questions for the field.

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Reposted by Tobias Gerstenberg

Stratis Tsirtsis @stratiss.bsky.social · Aug 1

Last week I had the pleasure of presenting a 2.5-hour tutorial on "Counterfactuals in Minds and Machines" at UAI 2025 in Rio 🇧🇷, prepared together with @autreche.bsky.social and @tobigerstenberg.bsky.social. We've made all materials and references available here: learning.mpi-sws.org/counterfactu...

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