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Tom Groat

@tomrg.bsky.social

330 followers 470 following 3.1K posts

Reporter for my local newspaper, former teacher. Used to be Shazom123 on the bird site. History, politics, football, TV and plenty of random stuff.

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Tom Groat @tomrg.bsky.social · 6h

But he’s doing everything (and so is congress and the SCOTUS) to make sure he is an all powerful lame duck.
I’m imagining this just leads to graft, political disillusion, entrenchment of structural problems and eventually president Nick Fuentes.

Tom Groat @tomrg.bsky.social · 7h

This has been a fascinating chat, thank you very much. And it’s only possible because of amazing technical revolutions - that I, ironically, am arguing to be wary of!
But I need to get to sleep.

Tom Groat @tomrg.bsky.social · 7h

Yes. I find the linking of investment to invention is the problem.
Poor inventions are over hyped to gather investment. This incentives mass investment in poor products, creating bubbles and market disruption.

I don’t know how to fix this. But I know we should be more wary of it.

Tom Groat @tomrg.bsky.social · 7h

Fair point. I was thinking of chips and phones.

Tom Groat @tomrg.bsky.social · 7h

It wasn’t that big a budget. It was hyped because, thanks to CGI it could be made quickly and (reasonably) cheaply. It was followed by other (bigger) films such as skyline.
But there is a trajectory there. Quality graphics get cheaper and more accessible. AI fastforwards this.
-that’s my argument.

Tom Groat @tomrg.bsky.social · 7h

I get this, and two make hardware, so function much like typical companies have since the 1600’s.

Tom Groat @tomrg.bsky.social · 7h

And if they don’t it’ll be ….
Where’s the logical proof that string AI is coming, that is not based on “well we can do things now we couldn’t five years ago, so in 5 years time we must be able to…” that logic gave us cryogenics, and 500 years ago the dream of base metals into gold…

Tom Groat @tomrg.bsky.social · 7h

Yes! And every new idea is hyped as “get in now before other do, this could change the world!”
And the idea turns out to be augmented glasses, or the metaverse, or 3D cinema.
So much gets wasted and everything is overhyped.

Tom Groat @tomrg.bsky.social · 7h

Also we may have just been through the big period of change. What if the revolution has happened and all the new ideas - sold to us as the next ‘google’ or smart phone, are just refinements on old ones?
This is not a game changer, it’s an iPod nano.

Tom Groat @tomrg.bsky.social · 8h

They all existed before the internet. It did not require the invention of telecommunications.
Wi fi, that’s a game changer, and mobile signal. I’d put them in my small set of revolutionary ideas.
But I still think they only come along once every 10 years.

Tom Groat @tomrg.bsky.social · 8h

Ah, now that could be it.
If it can create new software - from a very basic prompt, so we only need to imagine the solution. Then I can see that being revolutionary.
I’ll give you that.
Provided it works.
Which I expect it will, given time.

Tom Groat @tomrg.bsky.social · 8h

We are chatting here now in a way that would be impossible in the 90’s or even in the early 2000s given my location!
I’m also getting pings from all the other apps, having other conversations and watching video online.
This phone is revolutionary. How is AI?

Tom Groat @tomrg.bsky.social · 8h

We are a bit into the digital weeds here. At least for me.
As a consumer. What do I see or experience that is different. That is revolutionary? How does your parameter network affect my life?
Having this phone in my hand has completely changed it. (For good or for ill).

Tom Groat @tomrg.bsky.social · 8h

But how, as a viewer, are they any different?
I can watch Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow in 04, and now any Saturday morning commercial can have better production values.
But it’s not the same change as having a smart phone in my pocket. That’s revolutionary.

Tom Groat @tomrg.bsky.social · 8h

They have major flaws in their designs, and can only make profit by not honouring their original premise.

Tom Groat @tomrg.bsky.social · 8h

Also, how much money does Facebook actually make? From what I’ve read Twitter/X is a massive loss maker. Netflix is an unsustainable model. This is the reasons behind the enshitification of online services, isn’t it.

Tom Groat @tomrg.bsky.social · 8h

Yes, this is what I’m looking at. Because this is what gets hyped and sold. This is what they say will be the next internet, to generate heat, give them investment and then they cash in before it either works, or more often than not, does not.

Tom Groat @tomrg.bsky.social · 8h

I mean you never had to pay for the internet, it was a platform that allowed other businesses to set themselves up.
The infrastructure was not patented and the people who wrote the original code and played out the structure did not become billionaires.

Tom Groat @tomrg.bsky.social · 8h

In terms of hardware, we are now used to our phones being able to do just about anything. How is this a revolutionary leap. It seems to me as though it is a leap forward, but still on the same path.
It’s not moving from the desktop to the mobile device which was genuinely revolutionary.

Tom Groat @tomrg.bsky.social · 8h

It produces impressive results (but people were bowled over by the CG effects on terminator 2) but I’m still to see the real ‘revolution’ part.
Maybe I haven’t thought through all the implications yet.

Tom Groat @tomrg.bsky.social · 8h

It can generate answers and put them in a concise phrase - but google was getting there (this is lien we’ve leaped 5 years over night).
It can generate text, but so could old programmes.
How is it different from an old programme, just with a fantastically bigger data set, and speed?

Tom Groat @tomrg.bsky.social · 8h

You understand it on a much greater level than I do. But to me, its effect is not unlike we have just pressed fast forward on where things were going.
We had video created by computers that looked almost lifelike, but took years to make.
Now it’s there in seconds.

Tom Groat @tomrg.bsky.social · 8h

The internet was a huge leap. But no one is promising an advance as large as that.
It was also never monetised. In fact, if anything, for arts and news etc, it has been too free.
I’m thinking of ones that make their inventor/investor lots of money.

Tom Groat @tomrg.bsky.social · 9h

Yeah, that would probably be my suggestion too.

Tom Groat @tomrg.bsky.social · 9h

Thank you very much.