Trita Parsi
@tparsi.bsky.social
2010 Grawemeyer Award for Ideas Improving World Order Recipient. Executive VP @quincyinst. Author of Losing an Enemy, Single Roll of the Dice & Treacherous Alliance. Views are my own.
Told @esaagar and @krystalball:
"If Trump really does not want war [with Iran], then he should not accept the premise of the Israeli position, because the Israeli premise is designed to get the US into war with Iran."
www.youtube.com/watch?v=hi5C...
"If Trump really does not want war [with Iran], then he should not accept the premise of the Israeli position, because the Israeli premise is designed to get the US into war with Iran."
www.youtube.com/watch?v=hi5C...
US RUSHES Mil Equipment To Iran As Last Ditch Diplomacy Breaks Out
YouTube video by Breaking Points
www.youtube.com
February 3, 2026 at 6:56 PM
Told @esaagar and @krystalball:
"If Trump really does not want war [with Iran], then he should not accept the premise of the Israeli position, because the Israeli premise is designed to get the US into war with Iran."
www.youtube.com/watch?v=hi5C...
"If Trump really does not want war [with Iran], then he should not accept the premise of the Israeli position, because the Israeli premise is designed to get the US into war with Iran."
www.youtube.com/watch?v=hi5C...
Told @aje that we don't know the validity of Iran's belief that it can inflict such damage on the US that a small war can lead to Trump dropping his maximalist positions.
Hopefully, we will never need to find out if Tehran simply picks up the phone and calls Trump directly.
Hopefully, we will never need to find out if Tehran simply picks up the phone and calls Trump directly.
February 2, 2026 at 2:27 AM
Told @aje that we don't know the validity of Iran's belief that it can inflict such damage on the US that a small war can lead to Trump dropping his maximalist positions.
Hopefully, we will never need to find out if Tehran simply picks up the phone and calls Trump directly.
Hopefully, we will never need to find out if Tehran simply picks up the phone and calls Trump directly.
The primary audience for Iran's warnings is Trump himself - Tehran is trying to dispel Trump's sense that Iran is on the brink. Some in Tehran believe a small confrontation may be necessary to make Trump drop his maximalist demands and get him to negotiate more realistically.
February 2, 2026 at 2:21 AM
The primary audience for Iran's warnings is Trump himself - Tehran is trying to dispel Trump's sense that Iran is on the brink. Some in Tehran believe a small confrontation may be necessary to make Trump drop his maximalist demands and get him to negotiate more realistically.
Direct talks between Iranian officials and Trump himself may appear completely unrealistic, but some of the main turning points in the US-Iran drama were caused by moves that most believe were completely impossible. I don't see what the Iranian shave tolose by trying this card.
February 2, 2026 at 2:15 AM
Direct talks between Iranian officials and Trump himself may appear completely unrealistic, but some of the main turning points in the US-Iran drama were caused by moves that most believe were completely impossible. I don't see what the Iranian shave tolose by trying this card.
Told @AJEnglish that the most effective way to walk away from the precipice of war is for Tehran to talk directly to Trump - not to negotiate, but to defuse tensions and broaden the parameters for the negotiations.
February 2, 2026 at 2:13 AM
Told @AJEnglish that the most effective way to walk away from the precipice of war is for Tehran to talk directly to Trump - not to negotiate, but to defuse tensions and broaden the parameters for the negotiations.
Failing to do so is strategic malpractice on par with Ayatollah Khomeini's refusal to accept an end to the war with Iraq in 1982.//
February 1, 2026 at 11:21 PM
Failing to do so is strategic malpractice on par with Ayatollah Khomeini's refusal to accept an end to the war with Iraq in 1982.//
...by changing the redlines and parameters for the talks: Direct engagement between Tehran and wants himself. Tehran can simply pick up the phone and talk directly with Trump to defuse the situation and set the stage for much more realistic and constructive negotiations.
February 1, 2026 at 11:21 PM
...by changing the redlines and parameters for the talks: Direct engagement between Tehran and wants himself. Tehran can simply pick up the phone and talk directly with Trump to defuse the situation and set the stage for much more realistic and constructive negotiations.
While I agree that Trump's maximalist demands and threat-intense approach need to be amended, Tehran is still refusing the most effective deescalatory card, which could not only eliminate the risk for war in the shortrun, but also set the stage for a solution that can hold in the long run...>>
February 1, 2026 at 11:21 PM
While I agree that Trump's maximalist demands and threat-intense approach need to be amended, Tehran is still refusing the most effective deescalatory card, which could not only eliminate the risk for war in the shortrun, but also set the stage for a solution that can hold in the long run...>>
So the combination of Trump's threat-intense, maximalist diplomacy and Tehran's calculation that it can "correct" Trump's strategy through a limited but highly intense war, leads both toward a larger war that neither actually wants.
February 1, 2026 at 11:21 PM
So the combination of Trump's threat-intense, maximalist diplomacy and Tehran's calculation that it can "correct" Trump's strategy through a limited but highly intense war, leads both toward a larger war that neither actually wants.
But it is important to understand that Trump himself has destroyed much of the credibility of those in Tehran who prefer a bolder diplomatic path rather than this confrontation-first, diplomacy-later approach, because of the deceit he engaged in back in June 2024.
February 1, 2026 at 11:21 PM
But it is important to understand that Trump himself has destroyed much of the credibility of those in Tehran who prefer a bolder diplomatic path rather than this confrontation-first, diplomacy-later approach, because of the deceit he engaged in back in June 2024.
This, in turn, will lead to Trump opting for more realistic demands and parameters, the calculation goes. Whether Tehran really can either strike that hard or absorb the US's massive strikes is unclear to me.
February 1, 2026 at 11:21 PM
This, in turn, will lead to Trump opting for more realistic demands and parameters, the calculation goes. Whether Tehran really can either strike that hard or absorb the US's massive strikes is unclear to me.
It will be long, bloody, and costly, rather than the quick, bloodless, and glorious assessment the Iranians believe Trump has.
February 1, 2026 at 11:21 PM
It will be long, bloody, and costly, rather than the quick, bloodless, and glorious assessment the Iranians believe Trump has.
The idea being that Iran takes massive hits but also strikes back in an unprecedented way throughout the region and against US troops with mass casualties, in order to dispel Trump's belief that a war with Iran can resemble the military operation in Venezuela.
February 1, 2026 at 11:21 PM
The idea being that Iran takes massive hits but also strikes back in an unprecedented way throughout the region and against US troops with mass casualties, in order to dispel Trump's belief that a war with Iran can resemble the military operation in Venezuela.
Some in Tehran prefer a limited military confrontation (not a symbolic one) in order to "correct" Trump's assessment and push him to negotiate more realistically.
February 1, 2026 at 11:21 PM
Some in Tehran prefer a limited military confrontation (not a symbolic one) in order to "correct" Trump's assessment and push him to negotiate more realistically.
Trump is overestimating Iran's regional and internal weakness and believes that pressure and military threats will cause Tehran to yield.
February 1, 2026 at 11:21 PM
Trump is overestimating Iran's regional and internal weakness and believes that pressure and military threats will cause Tehran to yield.
Some thoughts re the state of US-Iran talks...
Neither the US nor Iran is pursuing a diplomatic strategy that is likely to succeed, though both sides overall prefer to avoid war.
>>
Neither the US nor Iran is pursuing a diplomatic strategy that is likely to succeed, though both sides overall prefer to avoid war.
>>
February 1, 2026 at 11:21 PM
Some thoughts re the state of US-Iran talks...
Neither the US nor Iran is pursuing a diplomatic strategy that is likely to succeed, though both sides overall prefer to avoid war.
>>
Neither the US nor Iran is pursuing a diplomatic strategy that is likely to succeed, though both sides overall prefer to avoid war.
>>
So @shadihamid is a great guy, but we have a disagreement on American power (his new book is titled The Case for American Power). We hash it out on the Disagreement Podcast.
I think it ended up being more entertaining than either of us had expected :)
substack.com/@thedisagree...
I think it ended up being more entertaining than either of us had expected :)
substack.com/@thedisagree...
The Case for American Power
A disagreement about Shadi Hamid's recent book and America's role on the global stage
substack.com
January 30, 2026 at 3:56 AM
So @shadihamid is a great guy, but we have a disagreement on American power (his new book is titled The Case for American Power). We hash it out on the Disagreement Podcast.
I think it ended up being more entertaining than either of us had expected :)
substack.com/@thedisagree...
I think it ended up being more entertaining than either of us had expected :)
substack.com/@thedisagree...
"Israel Hayom, the daily closest to the Israeli government, reported that Jordan, the UAE and the UK would provide logistical and intelligence support to the US military in the event of an attack [on Iran]."
www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/iran...
www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/iran...
Iran's battle for survival is the Arab world's fight too
Everyone in the region, whatever their past history with the Islamic Republic, should do their utmost to defend Iran and guarantee its sovereignty
www.middleeasteye.net
January 29, 2026 at 2:02 PM
"Israel Hayom, the daily closest to the Israeli government, reported that Jordan, the UAE and the UK would provide logistical and intelligence support to the US military in the event of an attack [on Iran]."
www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/iran...
www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/iran...
The same people who say that Iran will not become Syria are literally demanding the same things that will ensure that Iran becomes Syria...
January 27, 2026 at 9:43 PM
The same people who say that Iran will not become Syria are literally demanding the same things that will ensure that Iran becomes Syria...
Turkish FM Hakan Fidan cautions against US-Iran.
"Iran is ready to negotiate, but you need to find a way to negotiate in the right way. If they feel cornered, they will prepare for the worst-case scenario."
True, but Iran also needs to speak directly to Trump himself.
"Iran is ready to negotiate, but you need to find a way to negotiate in the right way. If they feel cornered, they will prepare for the worst-case scenario."
True, but Iran also needs to speak directly to Trump himself.
January 25, 2026 at 11:25 PM
Turkish FM Hakan Fidan cautions against US-Iran.
"Iran is ready to negotiate, but you need to find a way to negotiate in the right way. If they feel cornered, they will prepare for the worst-case scenario."
True, but Iran also needs to speak directly to Trump himself.
"Iran is ready to negotiate, but you need to find a way to negotiate in the right way. If they feel cornered, they will prepare for the worst-case scenario."
True, but Iran also needs to speak directly to Trump himself.
Ugly - and frankly embarrassing - scenes continue to take place at protests outside of Iran where various Iranian opposition groups end up using violence against each other.
It's not clear who started this specific fight, but it's clear that this isn't the path to democracy...
It's not clear who started this specific fight, but it's clear that this isn't the path to democracy...
January 21, 2026 at 9:13 PM
Ugly - and frankly embarrassing - scenes continue to take place at protests outside of Iran where various Iranian opposition groups end up using violence against each other.
It's not clear who started this specific fight, but it's clear that this isn't the path to democracy...
It's not clear who started this specific fight, but it's clear that this isn't the path to democracy...
WOW!
At the Israeli-American Council, Miriam Adelson is asked how she is buying influence over American politicians.
"Can you allow me not to answer? ... I want to be truthful, and there are so many things I don't want to talk about."
At the Israeli-American Council, Miriam Adelson is asked how she is buying influence over American politicians.
"Can you allow me not to answer? ... I want to be truthful, and there are so many things I don't want to talk about."
January 18, 2026 at 5:06 PM
WOW!
At the Israeli-American Council, Miriam Adelson is asked how she is buying influence over American politicians.
"Can you allow me not to answer? ... I want to be truthful, and there are so many things I don't want to talk about."
At the Israeli-American Council, Miriam Adelson is asked how she is buying influence over American politicians.
"Can you allow me not to answer? ... I want to be truthful, and there are so many things I don't want to talk about."
Iran's neighbors lobbied Trump against war because they fear destabilization, including secessionist movements that would endanger their own interests.
But they might not be able to stop Trump a second time - his military mobilization may create a momentum of its own.
But they might not be able to stop Trump a second time - his military mobilization may create a momentum of its own.
January 17, 2026 at 11:54 PM
Iran's neighbors lobbied Trump against war because they fear destabilization, including secessionist movements that would endanger their own interests.
But they might not be able to stop Trump a second time - his military mobilization may create a momentum of its own.
But they might not be able to stop Trump a second time - his military mobilization may create a momentum of its own.
Told @cnn that Trump has taken a step back from war with Iran for now. But we are seeing significant assets being brought to the region, signalling that Trump is preparing for a larger attack than we saw in June 2025.
January 17, 2026 at 11:47 PM
Told @cnn that Trump has taken a step back from war with Iran for now. But we are seeing significant assets being brought to the region, signalling that Trump is preparing for a larger attack than we saw in June 2025.