@ttunguz.bsky.social
Despite open-source AI models being 10-100x cheaper, proprietary providers haven’t lost pricing power. OpenRouter’s data reveals a market splitting in two.
December 16, 2025 at 10:42 PM
Despite open-source AI models being 10-100x cheaper, proprietary providers haven’t lost pricing power. OpenRouter’s data reveals a market splitting in two.
It’s not often that venture capital thinks about the credit markets. I remember becoming a venture capitalist three months before Lehman fell, when mortgage securities topped the news of the global financial crisis.
December 15, 2025 at 6:37 PM
It’s not often that venture capital thinks about the credit markets. I remember becoming a venture capitalist three months before Lehman fell, when mortgage securities topped the news of the global financial crisis.
No, founders are not adopting Bryan Johnson’s regimen to reverse aging. Quite the opposite : the average founder raising capital ages six months every year.
December 12, 2025 at 8:38 PM
No, founders are not adopting Bryan Johnson’s regimen to reverse aging. Quite the opposite : the average founder raising capital ages six months every year.
Enterprises learned a lesson from cloud data warehouses. They handed over both data & compute, then watched as the most strategic asset in their business, how they operate, became someone else’s leverage, which created an opportunity for Iceberg.
Fool me once…
Fool me once…
December 10, 2025 at 8:15 PM
Enterprises learned a lesson from cloud data warehouses. They handed over both data & compute, then watched as the most strategic asset in their business, how they operate, became someone else’s leverage, which created an opportunity for Iceberg.
Fool me once…
Fool me once…
A new study from OpenAI shows AI saves the average white-collar worker 54 minutes per day. Where does all that value go?
December 9, 2025 at 6:10 PM
A new study from OpenAI shows AI saves the average white-collar worker 54 minutes per day. Where does all that value go?
Streaming is the next category to consolidate within the modern data stack. IBM announced its intent to acquire Confluent.
December 8, 2025 at 8:31 PM
Streaming is the next category to consolidate within the modern data stack. IBM announced its intent to acquire Confluent.
Since I watched software engineers using AI, I’ve become jealous.
I’ve seen the most sophisticated software engineers assign 15 to 20 coding tasks in GitHub to an AI. They play foosball. They grab coffee. They return to evaluate the agent’s work.
I’ve seen the most sophisticated software engineers assign 15 to 20 coding tasks in GitHub to an AI. They play foosball. They grab coffee. They return to evaluate the agent’s work.
December 5, 2025 at 9:08 PM
Since I watched software engineers using AI, I’ve become jealous.
I’ve seen the most sophisticated software engineers assign 15 to 20 coding tasks in GitHub to an AI. They play foosball. They grab coffee. They return to evaluate the agent’s work.
I’ve seen the most sophisticated software engineers assign 15 to 20 coding tasks in GitHub to an AI. They play foosball. They grab coffee. They return to evaluate the agent’s work.
While OpenAI signed $1.15 trillion in compute contracts through 2035, DeepSeek trained a frontier model for $6 million. This was 2025’s central question : are we building on bedrock or quicksand?
The top 10 posts of 2025 examined some of these topics :
The top 10 posts of 2025 examined some of these topics :
December 3, 2025 at 5:04 PM
While OpenAI signed $1.15 trillion in compute contracts through 2035, DeepSeek trained a frontier model for $6 million. This was 2025’s central question : are we building on bedrock or quicksand?
The top 10 posts of 2025 examined some of these topics :
The top 10 posts of 2025 examined some of these topics :
I remember hosting a dinner of sales leaders to talk about AI. I asked them what will your CRM do for you in the future?
Nearly unanimously came the reply : enable salespeople to spend most of their time with customers.
Nearly unanimously came the reply : enable salespeople to spend most of their time with customers.
December 1, 2025 at 5:43 PM
I remember hosting a dinner of sales leaders to talk about AI. I asked them what will your CRM do for you in the future?
Nearly unanimously came the reply : enable salespeople to spend most of their time with customers.
Nearly unanimously came the reply : enable salespeople to spend most of their time with customers.
Private equity firms have emerged as the newest distribution channel for AI startups.
While public companies have decreased from 6,639 in 2000 to 3,550 in 2024, PE-owned companies in the US have grown from 1,950 to 14,300. The rate of growth continues to accelerate.
While public companies have decreased from 6,639 in 2000 to 3,550 in 2024, PE-owned companies in the US have grown from 1,950 to 14,300. The rate of growth continues to accelerate.
November 25, 2025 at 9:16 PM
Private equity firms have emerged as the newest distribution channel for AI startups.
While public companies have decreased from 6,639 in 2000 to 3,550 in 2024, PE-owned companies in the US have grown from 1,950 to 14,300. The rate of growth continues to accelerate.
While public companies have decreased from 6,639 in 2000 to 3,550 in 2024, PE-owned companies in the US have grown from 1,950 to 14,300. The rate of growth continues to accelerate.
The AI market today is bacon in a hot skillet. Everything is sizzling, moving, & changing at an incredible pace. We’re all watching it closely.
November 21, 2025 at 9:48 PM
The AI market today is bacon in a hot skillet. Everything is sizzling, moving, & changing at an incredible pace. We’re all watching it closely.
Two revelations this week have shaken the narrative in AI : Nvidia’s earnings & this tweet about Gemini.
The AI industry spent 2025 convinced that pre-training scaling laws had hit a wall. Models weren’t improving just from adding more compute during training.
The AI industry spent 2025 convinced that pre-training scaling laws had hit a wall. Models weren’t improving just from adding more compute during training.
November 20, 2025 at 8:17 PM
Two revelations this week have shaken the narrative in AI : Nvidia’s earnings & this tweet about Gemini.
The AI industry spent 2025 convinced that pre-training scaling laws had hit a wall. Models weren’t improving just from adding more compute during training.
The AI industry spent 2025 convinced that pre-training scaling laws had hit a wall. Models weren’t improving just from adding more compute during training.
70% of production AI teams use open source models. 72.5% connect agents to databases, not chat interfaces. This is what 375 technical builders actually ship - & it looks nothing like Twitter AI.
November 17, 2025 at 11:30 PM
70% of production AI teams use open source models. 72.5% connect agents to databases, not chat interfaces. This is what 375 technical builders actually ship - & it looks nothing like Twitter AI.
Ten months ago, DeepSeek collapsed AI training costs by 90% using distillation - transferring knowledge from larger models to smaller ones at a fraction of the cost.
November 13, 2025 at 10:22 PM
Ten months ago, DeepSeek collapsed AI training costs by 90% using distillation - transferring knowledge from larger models to smaller ones at a fraction of the cost.
By Monday lunch, I had burned through my Claude code credits. I’d been warned ; damn the budget, full prompting ahead.
November 12, 2025 at 9:51 PM
By Monday lunch, I had burned through my Claude code credits. I’d been warned ; damn the budget, full prompting ahead.
Datadog is becoming a platform company, & its Q3 2025 results underscore how successful this transition is. If nothing else, the consistency around 25% growth for the last 12 quarters exemplifies this point.
November 10, 2025 at 6:43 PM
Datadog is becoming a platform company, & its Q3 2025 results underscore how successful this transition is. If nothing else, the consistency around 25% growth for the last 12 quarters exemplifies this point.
Just how much are we spending on AI?
Compared to other massive infrastructure projects, AI is the sixth largest in US history, so far.
Compared to other massive infrastructure projects, AI is the sixth largest in US history, so far.
November 6, 2025 at 11:41 PM
Just how much are we spending on AI?
Compared to other massive infrastructure projects, AI is the sixth largest in US history, so far.
Compared to other massive infrastructure projects, AI is the sixth largest in US history, so far.
I sleep better knowing my agents work through the night. Less work for me in the morning.
My podcast processor transcribes & analyzes conversations. I started on my laptop, needed a little database to collect podcast data & metadata, & booted up a DuckDB instance.
My podcast processor transcribes & analyzes conversations. I started on my laptop, needed a little database to collect podcast data & metadata, & booted up a DuckDB instance.
October 31, 2025 at 11:39 PM
I sleep better knowing my agents work through the night. Less work for me in the morning.
My podcast processor transcribes & analyzes conversations. I started on my laptop, needed a little database to collect podcast data & metadata, & booted up a DuckDB instance.
My podcast processor transcribes & analyzes conversations. I started on my laptop, needed a little database to collect podcast data & metadata, & booted up a DuckDB instance.
Microsoft & Google both announced earnings yesterday, & the scale of AI adoption remains staggering. The infrastructure businesses are growing at accelerating growth rates that are the envy of businesses one-hundredth the size.
October 30, 2025 at 4:21 PM
Microsoft & Google both announced earnings yesterday, & the scale of AI adoption remains staggering. The infrastructure businesses are growing at accelerating growth rates that are the envy of businesses one-hundredth the size.
As the world follows every whisper & rumor from AI, what has happened to public SaaS?
The answer is not much! All the fun is in the private markets.
Multiples haven’t moved outside of a narrow band since the post-Covid crash in 2022.
The answer is not much! All the fun is in the private markets.
Multiples haven’t moved outside of a narrow band since the post-Covid crash in 2022.
October 27, 2025 at 7:19 PM
As the world follows every whisper & rumor from AI, what has happened to public SaaS?
The answer is not much! All the fun is in the private markets.
Multiples haven’t moved outside of a narrow band since the post-Covid crash in 2022.
The answer is not much! All the fun is in the private markets.
Multiples haven’t moved outside of a narrow band since the post-Covid crash in 2022.
There’s this notion that product market fit is this binary condition that once you pass the gate, you’re done. And that’s no longer the case. Product market fit is like United Miles. You continue to fly to maintain 1K.
October 23, 2025 at 7:23 PM
There’s this notion that product market fit is this binary condition that once you pass the gate, you’re done. And that’s no longer the case. Product market fit is like United Miles. You continue to fly to maintain 1K.
When I worked at Google, I was lucky to collaborate with some of the brightest machine-learning (ML) engineers. They worked on feature engineering. By picking the factors to guide the ML model, their advances could generate tens to hundreds of millions of additional revenue.
October 20, 2025 at 7:19 PM
When I worked at Google, I was lucky to collaborate with some of the brightest machine-learning (ML) engineers. They worked on feature engineering. By picking the factors to guide the ML model, their advances could generate tens to hundreds of millions of additional revenue.
It’s 9:30 AM. Do you know where your agent is?
As we enter the era of agentic AI, this is an increasingly important question. ChatGPT launched the consumer use of AI, compressing all of human knowledge into a single model. Now we are asking AI to act on our behalf at work.
As we enter the era of agentic AI, this is an increasingly important question. ChatGPT launched the consumer use of AI, compressing all of human knowledge into a single model. Now we are asking AI to act on our behalf at work.
October 17, 2025 at 9:13 PM
It’s 9:30 AM. Do you know where your agent is?
As we enter the era of agentic AI, this is an increasingly important question. ChatGPT launched the consumer use of AI, compressing all of human knowledge into a single model. Now we are asking AI to act on our behalf at work.
As we enter the era of agentic AI, this is an increasingly important question. ChatGPT launched the consumer use of AI, compressing all of human knowledge into a single model. Now we are asking AI to act on our behalf at work.
I asked Claude this morning about the most important news in tech. A few follow-up questions about Salesforce’s Dreamforce, Samsung’s XR headset, & TSMC earnings later, I popped over to ChatGPT Pulse. It suggested some updates about the Fed’s rates policy.
October 16, 2025 at 4:58 PM
I asked Claude this morning about the most important news in tech. A few follow-up questions about Salesforce’s Dreamforce, Samsung’s XR headset, & TSMC earnings later, I popped over to ChatGPT Pulse. It suggested some updates about the Fed’s rates policy.
Why was the Fivetran-dbt merger all but inevitable?
Fivetran & dbt Labs announced their merger yesterday. The all-stock deal combines two companies into an entity approaching $600 million in ARR.
Fivetran & dbt Labs announced their merger yesterday. The all-stock deal combines two companies into an entity approaching $600 million in ARR.
October 14, 2025 at 10:03 PM
Why was the Fivetran-dbt merger all but inevitable?
Fivetran & dbt Labs announced their merger yesterday. The all-stock deal combines two companies into an entity approaching $600 million in ARR.
Fivetran & dbt Labs announced their merger yesterday. The all-stock deal combines two companies into an entity approaching $600 million in ARR.