Vítor Constâncio
@vmrconstancio.bsky.social
Former ECB Vice President. President of the Council of ISEG, University of Lisbon. Professor at Navarra University, Masters School, Madrid
The triumph of stable coins and the demise of retail CBDCs. Will wholesale CBDCs be a game changer? See my new post in Substack and subscribe for free.
👇 vconstancio.substack.com/p/the-stable...
👇 vconstancio.substack.com/p/the-stable...
THE STABLECOINS TRIUMPH AND THE RETAIL CBDCs DEMISE (PART 3)
Most countries abandoned retail CBDCs- Will wholesale CBDCs the game-changer?
vconstancio.substack.com
October 15, 2025 at 7:18 PM
The triumph of stable coins and the demise of retail CBDCs. Will wholesale CBDCs be a game changer? See my new post in Substack and subscribe for free.
👇 vconstancio.substack.com/p/the-stable...
👇 vconstancio.substack.com/p/the-stable...
My two new Substack posts: “In the Eye of the Storm” (Parts I and II US markets somewhat stabilised, due to the administration's spin and wishful thinking. Nobody knows how strong the storm will be
here: vtor.substack.com/p/still-in-the…
and here: vtor.substack.com/p/still-in-the���
here: vtor.substack.com/p/still-in-the…
and here: vtor.substack.com/p/still-in-the���
https://vtor.substack.com/p/still-in-the…
May 6, 2025 at 9:21 PM
My two new Substack posts: “In the Eye of the Storm” (Parts I and II US markets somewhat stabilised, due to the administration's spin and wishful thinking. Nobody knows how strong the storm will be
here: vtor.substack.com/p/still-in-the…
and here: vtor.substack.com/p/still-in-the���
here: vtor.substack.com/p/still-in-the…
and here: vtor.substack.com/p/still-in-the���
Reposted by Vítor Constâncio
Link to report: dezernatzukunft.org/overcoming-m...
A big thank you to @jvtk.bsky.social! Possibly of interest to @olafstorbeck.ft.com @eurobriefing.bsky.social @chrisgiles.ft.com @joelsuss.ft.com @klaus-adam.bsky.social @isabelschnabel.bsky.social @vmrconstancio.bsky.social
A big thank you to @jvtk.bsky.social! Possibly of interest to @olafstorbeck.ft.com @eurobriefing.bsky.social @chrisgiles.ft.com @joelsuss.ft.com @klaus-adam.bsky.social @isabelschnabel.bsky.social @vmrconstancio.bsky.social
dezernatzukunft.org
May 5, 2025 at 7:05 AM
Link to report: dezernatzukunft.org/overcoming-m...
A big thank you to @jvtk.bsky.social! Possibly of interest to @olafstorbeck.ft.com @eurobriefing.bsky.social @chrisgiles.ft.com @joelsuss.ft.com @klaus-adam.bsky.social @isabelschnabel.bsky.social @vmrconstancio.bsky.social
A big thank you to @jvtk.bsky.social! Possibly of interest to @olafstorbeck.ft.com @eurobriefing.bsky.social @chrisgiles.ft.com @joelsuss.ft.com @klaus-adam.bsky.social @isabelschnabel.bsky.social @vmrconstancio.bsky.social
Check my new Substack post : THE ECB CUTS RATES. UNFOUNDED TRUMP ENVY
vtor.substack.com?utm_source=n...
vtor.substack.com?utm_source=n...
April 19, 2025 at 10:21 AM
Check my new Substack post : THE ECB CUTS RATES. UNFOUNDED TRUMP ENVY
vtor.substack.com?utm_source=n...
vtor.substack.com?utm_source=n...
Reposted by Vítor Constâncio
CPJ has issued a safety advisory for journalists traveling to or entering the US:
cpj.org/2025/04/cpj-...
cpj.org/2025/04/cpj-...
CPJ issues safety advisory for journalists traveling to the United States - Committee to Protect Journalists
The Committee to Protect Journalists today released a safety advisory covering a wide range of digital, physical, and legal tips aimed at journalists and media workers who plan to visit the United Sta...
cpj.org
April 17, 2025 at 6:53 PM
CPJ has issued a safety advisory for journalists traveling to or entering the US:
cpj.org/2025/04/cpj-...
cpj.org/2025/04/cpj-...
See my Substack post about the new dangerous phase of the crisis: The Apprentice deepens the crisis. open.substack.com/pub/vtor/p/the…
https://open.substack.com/pub/vtor/p/the…
April 12, 2025 at 2:27 PM
See my Substack post about the new dangerous phase of the crisis: The Apprentice deepens the crisis. open.substack.com/pub/vtor/p/the…
Anyhow, US tariffs will be a multiple of what they were. Even if the end would be a 10% tariff on all countries this means a 500% increase. High uncertainty continues as before, and firms will continue to wait for the final negotiations results to make significant decisions.3/3
April 9, 2025 at 7:32 PM
Anyhow, US tariffs will be a multiple of what they were. Even if the end would be a 10% tariff on all countries this means a 500% increase. High uncertainty continues as before, and firms will continue to wait for the final negotiations results to make significant decisions.3/3
Negotiations were already foreseen or ongoing, so the delay just allows more time but may not mean a change in Trump’s underlying intentions. Hope just assumed final big reductions in the tariffs, and global markets soared (!!). Goldman withdrew a recession forecast (!!) 2/
April 9, 2025 at 7:32 PM
Negotiations were already foreseen or ongoing, so the delay just allows more time but may not mean a change in Trump’s underlying intentions. Hope just assumed final big reductions in the tariffs, and global markets soared (!!). Goldman withdrew a recession forecast (!!) 2/
So, Trump just blinked (a little) on tariffs. He delayed for 90 days the high misnamed “reciprocal tariffs” and kept all countries at 10% meanwhile, except China because it already retaliate. So, he tariffs on China to 125%. Now, he will negotiate with dozens of countries 1/
April 9, 2025 at 7:32 PM
So, Trump just blinked (a little) on tariffs. He delayed for 90 days the high misnamed “reciprocal tariffs” and kept all countries at 10% meanwhile, except China because it already retaliate. So, he tariffs on China to 125%. Now, he will negotiate with dozens of countries 1/
The EA inflation deceleration will be helped if the retaliation in the trade war is not concentrated on high across-the-board tariffs, but more selective ones. This then should be accompanied by other retaliations on US firms, e.g. high-tech and financials 6/6
April 9, 2025 at 2:46 PM
The EA inflation deceleration will be helped if the retaliation in the trade war is not concentrated on high across-the-board tariffs, but more selective ones. This then should be accompanied by other retaliations on US firms, e.g. high-tech and financials 6/6
On the contrary, the ECB must cut rates now. It is 100% discounted by the market. Also, inflation in Europe will continue to subside, especially with the decline of oil and gas prices. “Drill, baby, drill” is dead but the high expectations on a recession makes it unnecessary 5/
April 9, 2025 at 2:46 PM
On the contrary, the ECB must cut rates now. It is 100% discounted by the market. Also, inflation in Europe will continue to subside, especially with the decline of oil and gas prices. “Drill, baby, drill” is dead but the high expectations on a recession makes it unnecessary 5/
The FED is in a bind. The tariffs induced price increases impedes beginning cutting rates. It will stay on hold for quite a while until concrete data of unemployment increases materialises. But the floor-system, allows liquidity interventions starting with stopping QT. 4/
April 9, 2025 at 2:46 PM
The FED is in a bind. The tariffs induced price increases impedes beginning cutting rates. It will stay on hold for quite a while until concrete data of unemployment increases materialises. But the floor-system, allows liquidity interventions starting with stopping QT. 4/
The Treasury yields increase aggravate the fear of a repetition of the March 2020 Basis Trade crash involving hedge funds, when the FED had to massively buy Treasury bonds. Some academics and analysts are asking for a FED facility for hedge funds. 3/
April 9, 2025 at 2:46 PM
The Treasury yields increase aggravate the fear of a repetition of the March 2020 Basis Trade crash involving hedge funds, when the FED had to massively buy Treasury bonds. Some academics and analysts are asking for a FED facility for hedge funds. 3/
The Trade war attained a new peak with an added US 50% tariff on China, bringing the total to 104%, and China retaliated again, bringing the total tariff on US to 84%, plus some export restrictions (eg rare earths) and US firms revised treatment 2/
April 9, 2025 at 2:46 PM
The Trade war attained a new peak with an added US 50% tariff on China, bringing the total to 104%, and China retaliated again, bringing the total tariff on US to 84%, plus some export restrictions (eg rare earths) and US firms revised treatment 2/
The Trump crisis just entered a new dangerous phase with the sell-off of Treasury bonds. Yields increased and the dollar continued to depreciate. It seems a market rotation out of US assets. The slide shows the German bunds did not increase as much. US Treasuries losing their save-haven status? 1/
April 9, 2025 at 2:46 PM
The Trump crisis just entered a new dangerous phase with the sell-off of Treasury bonds. Yields increased and the dollar continued to depreciate. It seems a market rotation out of US assets. The slide shows the German bunds did not increase as much. US Treasuries losing their save-haven status? 1/
Professor Scott Galloway
“No company over $1bn in revenue has ever lost 60% of its revenues in a 12 month period in a non-war period. I don’t think that’s ever happened. Twitter is literally the worst-performing business in history since a change in ownership.”
“No company over $1bn in revenue has ever lost 60% of its revenues in a 12 month period in a non-war period. I don’t think that’s ever happened. Twitter is literally the worst-performing business in history since a change in ownership.”
March 18, 2025 at 8:34 PM
Professor Scott Galloway
“No company over $1bn in revenue has ever lost 60% of its revenues in a 12 month period in a non-war period. I don’t think that’s ever happened. Twitter is literally the worst-performing business in history since a change in ownership.”
“No company over $1bn in revenue has ever lost 60% of its revenues in a 12 month period in a non-war period. I don’t think that’s ever happened. Twitter is literally the worst-performing business in history since a change in ownership.”
Tesla’s share price has halved over the past three months, ..hedge fund short sellers have made $16.2bn betting against it. JP Morgan note: “We struggle to think of anything analogous in the history of the automotive industry, in which a brand has lost so much value so quickly.”
March 18, 2025 at 8:34 PM
Tesla’s share price has halved over the past three months, ..hedge fund short sellers have made $16.2bn betting against it. JP Morgan note: “We struggle to think of anything analogous in the history of the automotive industry, in which a brand has lost so much value so quickly.”
FT: “Trump wrote on Truth Social: “CONGESTION PRICING IS DEAD. Manhattan, and all of New York, is SAVED. LONG LIVE THE KING!”
The White House then shared Trump’s quote in social media accompanied with an image of a crowned Trump on a fake Time magazine cover
The White House then shared Trump’s quote in social media accompanied with an image of a crowned Trump on a fake Time magazine cover
February 20, 2025 at 2:22 PM
FT: “Trump wrote on Truth Social: “CONGESTION PRICING IS DEAD. Manhattan, and all of New York, is SAVED. LONG LIVE THE KING!”
The White House then shared Trump’s quote in social media accompanied with an image of a crowned Trump on a fake Time magazine cover
The White House then shared Trump’s quote in social media accompanied with an image of a crowned Trump on a fake Time magazine cover
Trump dangerous attempt to control the FED : “Donald Trump makes push for control of independent US regulators: Executive order will force watchdogs including the Federal Reserve and SEC to submit draft regulations to the White House.”https://www.ft.com/content/9d097840-cad0-49d2-8d27-5f59b4628f10
February 20, 2025 at 2:22 PM
Trump dangerous attempt to control the FED : “Donald Trump makes push for control of independent US regulators: Executive order will force watchdogs including the Federal Reserve and SEC to submit draft regulations to the White House.”https://www.ft.com/content/9d097840-cad0-49d2-8d27-5f59b4628f10
Trump will have his club of autocrats but the US will become internationally weaker, without friends or alliances. It’s also not good for the economy. Trump’s idea of a troika deal for the 3 halfing military expenditures is a pure illusion. Whither Europe alone? 6/6
February 19, 2025 at 8:01 PM
Trump will have his club of autocrats but the US will become internationally weaker, without friends or alliances. It’s also not good for the economy. Trump’s idea of a troika deal for the 3 halfing military expenditures is a pure illusion. Whither Europe alone? 6/6
The dangerous lesson for other countries is that sovereignty depends on having a nuclear deterrent. Will we see growing nuclear proliferation? The XXI Century really begins now and is it going back to the XIXth, with world fragmentation and imperialism? 5/
February 19, 2025 at 8:01 PM
The dangerous lesson for other countries is that sovereignty depends on having a nuclear deterrent. Will we see growing nuclear proliferation? The XXI Century really begins now and is it going back to the XIXth, with world fragmentation and imperialism? 5/
That’s the new international system Trump wanted. A World Troika of autocrats of the US, China and Russia, making deals and expanding their territories. He wants Greenland, Canada.…the others can have...Ukraine, Georgia, Taiwan? Europe doesn’t count- it has no hard power.4/
February 19, 2025 at 8:01 PM
That’s the new international system Trump wanted. A World Troika of autocrats of the US, China and Russia, making deals and expanding their territories. He wants Greenland, Canada.…the others can have...Ukraine, Georgia, Taiwan? Europe doesn’t count- it has no hard power.4/
Realistically, a much different outcome was impossible with Europe also failing Ukraine: “European leaders clashed...in the event of a ceasefire.. the UK offered to put “boots on the ground”, Germany, Italy, Poland and Spain expressed reluctance to do so.”3/
February 19, 2025 at 8:01 PM
Realistically, a much different outcome was impossible with Europe also failing Ukraine: “European leaders clashed...in the event of a ceasefire.. the UK offered to put “boots on the ground”, Germany, Italy, Poland and Spain expressed reluctance to do so.”3/
Trump doubles down on reversing decades of US policy, adopting a pro-Moscow stance. The West and NATO are practically dead. Trump wrote: “A Dictator without Elections, Zelenskyy better move fast or he is not going to have a Country left.” It means, accept the settlement or…2/
February 19, 2025 at 8:01 PM
Trump doubles down on reversing decades of US policy, adopting a pro-Moscow stance. The West and NATO are practically dead. Trump wrote: “A Dictator without Elections, Zelenskyy better move fast or he is not going to have a Country left.” It means, accept the settlement or…2/