Revisiting The Burning Questions From The Early Season
As all get ready to sit back and enjoy the last stretch of the regular season, doesn't it just seem like it’s all going too quickly? What do you mean it’s already week 13? It seems like it was just yesterday that the news of the Micah Parsons trade was breaking, when we were all collectively realizing what the stakes of this season were going to be.
The Packers have entered the final stretch of the 2025 season. From Thanksgiving to New Years, the team will fight to put itself in a position to make a Super Bowl run. This means two things: winning football games to secure an advantageous road through the playoffs, while staying healthy enough to stay effective in those playoffs.
The road to actually making the playoffs is laid out for the Packers, and it’s exceedingly simple: Just Win, Baby.
When playoff scenarios start coming to the forefront in the next couple of weeks, you might notice that the Packer’s scenarios are a bit simpler than most, and that’s thanks to that third column in the Packers record. Unless another NFC contender records a tie over the course of the season, it makes all of the usual tiebreakers irrelevant, because it’s impossible for the Packers to actually match another team’s records. That means strength of schedule, divisional record, and common opponents are largely unnecessary.
Wins are all that matters now, and that is what makes the Packers current three-game win streak so important.
Now, way back on Oct 8th I wrote about what I thought the “burning questions” of the next stretch of the season would be. At the time, the Packers were coming out of their bye, fresh off that pivotal tie against the Cowboys and a (still) puzzling loss to the Browns.
Today, I’ll be taking a look back at those questions, and how the team has responded over the course of the season.
Can the offensive line gel together?
This was the #1 question for the Packers at the time of my last article, and it remains so now.
The line has undergone a few changes in that time. Firstly, longtime Packer Elton Jenkins has quite possibly played his last snaps in the Green and Gold, after suffering a lower leg fracture against the Eagles. The team has inserted Sean Rhyan into center in his place, seemingly clearing the way for Jordan Morgan to play right guard full time. Instead, he’s been all but benched in favor of rookie Anthony Belton, having played zero snaps against the Lions on Thanksgiving and only 21 (all in the first half) against the Vikings a few days before, his lowest snap count since week 1.
So, we have, in essence, two new starters along the line that was struggling earlier in the year.
An area where the line certainly seems to have improved over the last couple of weeks is in run blocking.
Over the last three weeks, the team has somewhat improved in the key stat that one can use to measure OL performance in the rushing game: yards before contact. The question is, is it enough? If we compare the OL’s performance over the last three weeks, compared to the rest of the season, you can see a small improvement. Over the last three weeks, the Packers are averaging about 1.33 yards before contact when rushing the ball, whereas over the rest of the season they had been averaging a mark around 1.17 yards. While both of those numbers are still below league average, there’s a bit of an encouraging sign in this progress.
In my last article I noted a slight difference in the OL’s effectiveness when it came to running man blocking scheme vs zone blocking, and I wanted to offer a slight follow up to that. At the time, the split between the two schemes was nearly even, but has tilted more heavily towards zone running as the season has gone on. The split currently sits at 49% zone to 41% man.
As far as the overall effectiveness of those schemes, PFF grades heavily imply that the players perform better under the man-gap blocking scheme. Under that scheme, Rasheed Walker, Sean Rhyan, Zach Tom, and Darian Kinnard all grade as average or above performers, while only Tom and Kinnard are graded as average or above in zone blocking. The raw numbers back this up too. The Packers have a higher yards per attempt (4.47 vs 3.77), first down % (31.17% vs 23.03%), and explosive run rate (11.69% vs 8.48%).
In pass blocking, Zach Tom’s return to the lineup from injuries has been a major factor. He’s been the Packers’ best lineman by far over the course of the season, and that steady play has been key. Overall, the Packers have improved their sack rate over the last few weeks, going from a 2.9% to a 2.1%, but seen a slight rise in pressures allowed, as that number has risen from 40.50% to 49.47%.
How will Christian Watson’s return impact the offense?
This is an easy one. The answer is: beyond our wildest expectations.
We all knew what Watson would bring to the offense when he returned: elite athleticism blended with elite size. The ability to take the top off of any defense in the league, and a unique “gravity” that the team uses to create spacing opportunities for others on underneath and intermediate routes.
What I think has been the most impressive aspect of Watson’s return, however, is how polished it all looks for him now. Route running. Releases off the LOS. The contested catches.
A year ago, Watson was probably not the receiver that the team would be looking for on a nine yard out route. Now? He caught two of those on Thursday, both for first downs.
This isn’t the time or space to get into a WR1 debate, but I will leave you with some numbers. Since returning back into the lineup in week eight, he has the eighth most yards among receivers (363), the sixth most yards per reception (17.3), the second highest average depth of target (19.4), is tied for the fifth most touchdowns, has the most contested catches (18), has the sixth highest overall grade from PFF (84.6) and has zero drops.
If this keeps up, I think Watson might be in line for a true multi-year extension this offseason, on top of the one year deal he signed earlier in the season. The Packers should absolutely look to get this done, as the price is only going to keep going up.
How has the run/pass ratio developed?
When I had written my last article, the extremely low passing rate was a confusing bug in the system. Now, it’s understood to be a feature of the 2025 Packers offense. The high running rate is here to stay.
At the time, the Packers had a 55-45 split between passing and rushing, which put them as the fourth highest run-happy offense in the league. As it stands today, that number has shifted an entire… one percent. They now have the third highest running rate in the entire league, with a split of 56-44.Keeping us company in the top five among this stat are the Seahawks, the Ravens, the Lions, and the Eagles. Arguably, five Super Bowl contenders.
At this point, I think it’s just time to accept that this is what the 2025 version of the Packers offense is going to look like, as well as having an understanding that it’s almost definitely a product of the offensive line’s limitations.
What does the ceiling look like for the cornerbacks?
As it turned out, this question may have actually been a bit misphrased. Instead of wondering what the ceiling of the cornerback group was as a whole, the better question to ask would have been: What is the most effective group of cornerbacks to have on the field together? And whew boy, has that question been answered.
At the time of writing, the Nate Hobbs experiment had only just gotten underway. Now, injuries and poor play on the field have made the contract Green Bay awarded him over the offseason look more and more regrettable.
The best three cornerbacks on the Packers are Keisean Nixon, Carrington Valentine, and Javon Bullard. I certainly hope that any further attempts to establish a rotation at cornerback will fall by the wayside, until next training camp.
Does the defense have any more tricks up its sleeve?
Jeff Hafley’s unit is performing as one of the best units in the NFL, basically any way that you look at it. The major theme of this defense through the season is preventing explosive plays via heavy use of cover-3, keeping their back seven in coverage while relying on their front four to generate a pass rush without much blitzing help.
The Packers blitz at one of the lowest rates in the entire league, at 19.7%, but are still generating pressure at a very solid 47.8%. Could that be better with a bit of blitzing mixed in? Yes. But I believe this is the adjustment that Jeff Hafley needs to make with the secondary that we have. Don’t get me wrong, I think this is a really good secondary, especially in the safety room. But having Micah Parsons allows you to devote more resources to that deep game.
Do I think the defense has any “tricks” left? No. I think Hafley has found the formula that really works for his personnel, and the next evolution is additional pass rushing production coming from the four down linemen we already have. But that’s a different conversation altogether.
What is going on with the Special Teams?
I have no idea.
Imagine trying to go back to the time that my last article was written, and attempting to explain the kicking drama that had engulfed the fanbase for a few months.
We now know the outcome of all that McManus/Havrisik discussion. McManus remains the team’s starting kicker, and Havrisik was recently signed onto Green Bay’s practice squad. For the meantime, it seems like the team will be sticking with McManus through the remainder of the 2025 season, while Havrisik will need to wait for his next opportunity. Though it’s possible that the two kickers might find themselves in competition again next year, I would suspect that Havrisik will be signed by another team before too long.
Now, to say that the issues at kicker are settled is another matter entirely. McManus remains inconsistent at best, and has been one of the worst kickers in the NFL if we are being honest. While he has made every attempt from within the 39 yard range, he struggles from beyond that. He’s made only 3 out of 7 attempts from 40-49 yards and is only 2 out of 4 from 50+. Simply put, those numbers just aren’t good enough in today’s day and age, where even 50 yard field goals seem like automatic points. If you didn’t get enough kicking competition drama during the 2024 training camp saga of Anders Carlson and Greg Joseph, don’t fret. I fear we’ve got another one in the near future.
Meanwhile, there seems to be a bit of stability at who exactly the team’s returners are, which is a relief considering the constant rotation that fans witnessed through the first few games. Bo Melton and Savion Williams seem to be taking the majority of kick returns now, while Romeo Doubs is the punt returner. While I do think that Williams has a lot of potential as a kick returner, the lack of a real punt returner-type on the roster continues to confuse and baffle me. I know a typical punt returner body type (slender, shorter) isn’t exactly MLF’s cup of tea at wide receiver or cornerback, but the lack of yards gained on these attempts is not exactly contributing positively to the field position game.
Conclusion
It’s always important to sit back and get some perspective on a long season. Looking back on where the Packers sat at the earlier parts of the season and seeing the hints of what was to come later is incredibly interesting.
I can only imagine what looking back on this exact moment will feel like, months down the line. The Packers seem like a team that is right there with the rest of the NFC. Heck, with the entire NFL. This season feels as wide open as any in memory. Green Bay has a chance to seize the top. What do they need to do in order to make that happen? Stay tuned…
Filed Under: FeaturedKalani Jones
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Co-Owner of the thirteen time world champion Green Bay Packers. Sometimes I write about them. Follow me on Twitter at https://x.com/kjones_in_co and on Substack for film breakdowns!
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NFL Categories: Green Bay PackersTags: Green Bay PackersMatt LaFluerNFC NorthMicah ParsonsJeff Hafley
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