Ken Caldeira
banner
kencaldeira.com
Ken Caldeira
@kencaldeira.com

Mostly mentoring a group of postdocs at Stanford.
Senior Scientist at Gates Ventures.
climate / energy / etc
https://sustainablesolutions.stanford.edu/people/ken-caldeira

Posts imperfectly represent the views of my former self and not my employer. .. more

Kenneth Caldeira is an American atmospheric scientist. His areas of research include ocean acidification, climate effects of trees, intentional climate modification, interactions in the global carbon cycle/climate system, and sustainable energy. .. more

Environmental science 45%
Geography 15%
Pinned
Folks, I am really appreciative of people who have followed me and added me to their starter packs.

I post about climate science, energy system transition, and related issues.

I try to restrain myself to information and questions, and try to avoid unseemly opining in public.

The Republican Party is betting on one of two things happening:

1. Republicans in power forever;

2. Pardons, collective amnesia and Democratic party leaders saying:

"Let's move on in the name of unity. We need to look forward, not backwards."

Many things can use blockchain without being a cryptocurrency. An argument for blockchain is not an argument for cryptocurrencies.

Cryptocurrency values are highly sensitive to "regulatory arbitrage" and often depend on political favoritism.

clsbluesky.law.columbia.edu/2025/12/05/c...
Cryptocurrency Markets Reveal the Price of Political Patronage
In October 2025, Bitcoin experienced its largest single-day crash since the COVID-19 pandemic, a 20% decline that economist Paul Krugman attributed not to economic fundamentals but to threats again…
clsbluesky.law.columbia.edu

@hausfath.bsky.social Thank you. Excellent work, as always.

What is the rationale for focusing on multi-model means instead of medians?

If I had a collection of thermometers and thought some of them might be broken, I would trust the median rather than an average that included broken thermometers.

What are those "legitimate use cases" for cryptocurrency where normal currencies would not suffice?

Is there any purpose to cryptocurrency other than to facilitate criminal activity?

www.nytimes.com/2025/12/07/t...
How a Cryptocurrency Helps Criminals Launder Money and Evade Sanctions
www.nytimes.com

AI slop = Mute

Reposted by Ken Caldeira

Eos @eos.org · 1d
After 2 years of war, 98% of tree cropland and 75% of greenhouses in Gaza have been destroyed. Remote sensing maps tracking the progression of damage can help identify the best ways to remediate the land and rebuild Gaza’s agricultural sector.
98% of Gaza’s Tree Cropland Destroyed by Israel - Eos
Maps based on remote sensing analysis could inform remediation efforts by identifying whether agricultural lands were damaged by bombs, debris, or forced displacement of its caretakers.
eos.org

A peace prize for his Venezuelan adventure, no doubt.
"The secret of Nazism in practice, as Mein Kampf states time and again, is to do the most outrageously secret things quite openly. The Nazi success with this practice has been so great that there is nothing they will not dare."
- Bella Fromm, Berlin, 3/20/1938
There is no sight that more efficiently puts the lie to immigration “court” than the common sight of children “representing themselves.” Children too small to climb into the chair, children in pajamas who don’t know where they are, children not yet old enough to speak.
Three-year-old child forced to serve as her own attorney in Tucson immigration court
More than a dozen undocumented minors were forced to make their case in front of an immigration judge as the Trump administration ramps up removal proceedings.
coppercourier.com

The Trump Administration and their Republican facilitators are deep into self-parody.

This is why they so dislike the comedians.

The comedians might say something as a joke, but then the Republicans want to implement it as policy.

www.npr.org/2025/12/04/n...
State Department to deny visas to fact checkers and others, citing 'censorship'
The order is focused on applicants for H-1B visas, which are frequently used by tech companies and is part of a campaign by the Trump administration against online content moderation.
www.npr.org

Here is a soundtrack that I produced where the tempo of the music follows the rate of the zoom in the video.

Each beat represents the same amount of zoom.

A new experiment that seems to have worked pretty well.

Thanks Yann Le Bihan for letting me do this!

youtu.be/SvyEYnIKAbA?...
Classical Mandelbrot Zoom (- -) Music by Art of Chance
YouTube video by Yann Le Bihan - Fractals
youtu.be

Reposted by Ken Caldeira

"This new portal gives Californians an easy and safe way to speak up, share what they see, and help us hold people accountable. No one is above the law.” — @governor.ca.gov Gavin Newsom

You are overthinking it.

Say that to your tenure committee.

In many cases, you letter writers will see some sort of statement from you. If you have that opportunity, say that in your statement.

Again, the main thing is the priors of the tenure committee. Do they want to grant you tenure?

And even then it is a crapshoot.

The most important thing is to have a tenure committee composed of people who want to grant you tenure, so they send letter requests out to people who are likely to speak highly of you.

Agreed.

It is a bit of a crapshoot because some letter writers use superlatives freely, while for others, their highest compliment is saying someone is 'good'.

Perhaps the only meaningful thing is when the tenure committee asks letter writers to evaluate someone relative to five other people.

Defined contribution plans put the greatest risk on retirees who will depend on the plans for income.

Since this is most likely to be the primary source of income for low-income people, it increases risk for low-income people.

Defined benefit plans distribute that risk throughout the society.

The headline could have been:

"Trump Looking into Options for Eliminating Social Security Retirement Benefits"

www.cnn.com/2025/12/03/e...
Trump said he’s looking into an Australian-style retirement program for America. Here’s how it works | CNN Business
The Trump administration is looking Down Under for inspiration on how to improve the United States’ retirement savings system.
www.cnn.com

This is one of the all time classics.

Great book !!

Great exposition of how simple structures can produce complicated behavior, and that those structures are not easily determinable from the behavior.

Some should sell a kit to go along with this book.

www.amazon.com/Vehicles-Exp...
Vehicles: Experiments in Synthetic Psychology
Amazon.com: Vehicles: Experiments in Synthetic Psychology: 9780262521123: Braitenberg, Valentino: Books
www.amazon.com

Is anyone working on a constitutional amendment to remove the pardon power from US Presidents and to make it clear that a President is subject to criminal prosecution?

The Founding Fathers never conceived that we would have a criminal President protected by colluding Senators.

Reposted by Ken Caldeira

Full pardon for the convicted drug trafficker who helped move 400 tons of cocaine. Death by airstrike for the guys on the boat www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/1...
Ex-Honduras president, convicted of drug trafficking, freed on Trump pardon
A former DEA agent called the release “devastating”: “It means any attempt to work your investigations to the highest levels is meaningless.”
www.washingtonpost.com
After becoming a congressional leader, a politician’s stock portfolio beats out those of peers by 47 (!!!) percentage points a year through trades timed around bills and firms that later get government contracts

www.nber.org/papers/w34524

via @florianederer.bsky.social

What a topsy-turvy world when Costco shows more of a spine than most of our media outlets and our politicians (of both parties).
For some reason Democratic leaders seem to prefer telling voters what they won’t be able to do, rather than what they’d like to do.

If Hegseth ordered a war crime and lied about it, shouldn’t Ds try for impeachment? Put Rs on the spot. They might get a few defections.

www.axios.com/2025/12/01/j...
Jeffries says not to expect Democrats to pursue Hegseth impeachment over boat strikes
"Republicans will never allow articles of impeachment to be brought to the floor," he said.
www.axios.com

Correct.

Ukraine is 603,628 km2 (233,062 sq mi).

The contiguous United States 8,080,000 km2 (3,120,000 sq mi).

For those of us who don't immediately get the reference.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colour_...
Colour revolution - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org

The Republican Party is betting on one of two things happening:

1. Republicans in power forever;

2. Pardons, collective amnesia and Democratic party leaders saying:

"Let's move on in the name of unity. We need to look forward, not backwards."

They could write other stories that similarly demonstrate lack of self-awareness of personal responsibility:

"Many Fighting Dictatorship in the United States Fear They Are Losing the Information War"

"Many Fighting Corruption in the United States Fear They Are Losing the Information War"

etc