Ken Caldeira
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kencaldeira.com
Ken Caldeira
@kencaldeira.com

Mostly mentoring a group of postdocs at Stanford.
Senior Scientist at Gates Ventures.
climate / energy / etc
https://sustainablesolutions.stanford.edu/people/ken-caldeira

Posts imperfectly represent the views of my former self and not my employer. .. more

Kenneth Caldeira is an American atmospheric scientist. His areas of research include ocean acidification, climate effects of trees, intentional climate modification, interactions in the global carbon cycle/climate system, and sustainable energy. .. more

Environmental science 45%
Geography 15%
Pinned
Folks, I am really appreciative of people who have followed me and added me to their starter packs.

I post about climate science, energy system transition, and related issues.

I try to restrain myself to information and questions, and try to avoid unseemly opining in public.

This is the type example.

They did not like having Fauci as an independent arbiter of truth that could contradict the infallible word of the supreme leader.

I think this is right.

They do not want any independent arbiters of fact versus fiction.

Any foundation for determination of truth, other than their own word, is a threat to their power.

Dictators need to be able to dictate what is true and what is false.

What is their motivation for destroying the NIH?

@nytimes.com style guide:

"When people we like kill people we don't like so much, the headline shall use the passive voice.

www.nytimes.com/2025/11/22/w...
20 Killed in Israeli Strikes as Israel and Hamas Trade Blame Over Truce
www.nytimes.com

Reposted by Juan Moreno‐Cruz

"The end of progress against extreme poverty?"

We have to work so that current trends are not good predictors of the future.

Thanks: @maxroser.bsky.social @ourworldindata.org

ourworldindata.org/end-progress...

I imagine that in our evolutionary past, it was more important to be accepted by the group than to be right.

So, we are ready to believe (and say) any crazy thing (e.g., religion) if it brings us acceptance from the group.

I am not sure this property has clear ideological coloration.

"Kavanaugh profiling"

Our brains are almost incapable of conceiving of technological change.

How many of us can remember how we did things before the invention of the internet or the mobile phone?

Early Oldowan technology was largely unchanged over a 300,000 year period (2.75−2.44 Ma).

Our recent era of rapid technological change is an anomaly that our evolutionary past did not prepare us for.

Our emotional structures evolved for a very different world.

www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Early Oldowan technology thrived during Pliocene environmental change in the Turkana Basin, Kenya - Nature Communications
Here, the authors present archaeology of the Namorotukunan site in Kenya’s Turkana Basin that demonstrates adaptive shifts in hominin tool-making behaviour spanning 300,000 years and increasing enviro...
www.nature.com

Is this property unique to academic and progressive culture?

Does Trump seem like he is wrestling over questions related to good vs. evil?

Don't you think the MAGA people have settled many ethical questions all too easily?

Reposted by Ken Caldeira

I’m honored to have Ms. Khashoggi with me today standing by my side as we remember her husband and call for transparency and accountability.

We'll continue pressing for the release of the transcript so the American people understand the truth.

If you do things people don't like, "things happen".

This is mafiosi talk, a form of language in which Trump is well versed.
Trump suggests Khashoggi had it coming: "You're mentioning someone that was extremely controversial. A lot of people didn't like that gentleman that you're talking about. Whether you like him or didn't like him, things happen. But he knew nothing about it. You don't have to embarrass our guest."

It's a mistake anyone might have made.

Look at Epstein, for example.
Trump suggests Khashoggi had it coming: "You're mentioning someone that was extremely controversial. A lot of people didn't like that gentleman that you're talking about. Whether you like him or didn't like him, things happen. But he knew nothing about it. You don't have to embarrass our guest."

Dershowitz argues Trump motive to win reelection would not be impeachable (2020)

"Birds of a feather stick together"

www.youtube.com/watch?v=rYbl...

DALYs are the sum of years lost to disability (YLD) and years lost to disease (YLL).

chds.hsph.harvard.edu/joint-modeli...

QALYs (quality adjusted life years) adjusts the DALYs for the quality of life.

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16877455/
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/11910057/
Joint Modeling of DALYs and QALYs – Center for Health Decision Science
chds.hsph.harvard.edu

I am imagining the back and neck pain score highly in the DALY score mostly because of back and neck pain reducing the quality of life.

Also, back and neck pain probably results in less exercise and thereby probably has some mortality knock on effect.

pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC...
Association of Back Pain with Mortality: a Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Cohort Studies
Back pain is the most common cause of disability worldwide. While disability generally is associated with greater mortality, the association between back pain and mortality is unclear. Our objective was to examine whether back pain is associated ...
pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

Looking at deaths instead of DALYs (Disability Adjusted Life Years) emphasizes diseases of the aging.

Still no homicide or terrorism on the list.

I am using 2018 so as not to consider Covid effects.

www.who.int/data/gho/dat...

Here are the DALY statistics for the US (pre-Covid).

Still no homicide or terrorism in the top 10.

Still mostly disease, much of it preventable. (Interesting how back and neck pain scores so highly.)

www.who.int/data/gho/dat...

(Note: Earlier version of this post was for Afghanistan.)

Blanket pardons are coming.

They are all counting on it.

If preemptive pardons were possible, they would have received them already.

One of the problems with most mortality statistics is that the only thing that can cause an additional death is birth.

Everything else just accelerates death.

It would be good to try to create a figure like this in terms of "avoidable life-years lost".

I suspect such a chart might look similar.

Theoretical economists have developed deep and valuable understanding.

However, problems arise when economists:

(1) believe their quantitative predictions;
(2) opine in public about what we should do.

Economic theory is an aid to thought, but quantitative predictive skill is not its forte.

Reposted by Greg Linden

Actual causes of death in the US and media coverage of same.

And then we wonder why people have such a skewed understanding of the world.

@ourworldindata.org is a treasure. Thanks, @hannahritchie.bsky.social and colleagues.

ourworldindata.org/does-the-new...
Temperatures have warmed across the contiguous United States over the last five decades or so during the months of December through February (a rapidly warming season)...

Check out @climatecentral.org's winter package for more information and graphics: www.climatecentral.org/climate-matt... ❄️🥵

Is there something I can read discussing this?

If we could define a util, and how many utils each person had in terms of well-being, I would think one might value one's life in direct proportion to the number of utils.

"Land of the free and home of the brave"

Looks like it might be time to rewrite some lyrics.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Sta...

Is this elasticity included in social cost of carbon calculations?

I notice that Rennert et al (2022) assume direct proportionality.

www.nature.com/articles/s41...