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Will Lowe @conjugateprior.org · 14h

Not really the point, but it's a bit weird to say that Bayes can be 'gamed' by choosing priors to support your conclusion. I mean, how is that gaming? Where's the subterfuge? Do we not make fun of villains who elaborate their plans to the viewer?

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Will Lowe @conjugateprior.org · 18h

fwiw I would agree they're are not _exactly_ the same, but I'd also maintain there are counterfactuals in both and the issue is whether the second set of counterfactuals is sketchier than the first.

There are various high theory answers to that, but tbh I'm more interested in your intuitions.  
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Will Lowe @conjugateprior.org · 18h

or, if that's not doable, explaining how the counterfactuals invoked in it are different from the ones in, say "the difference between the observed average outcome for treated units and the average outcome had none of them been treated (although they were)", to take an ATT example
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Will Lowe @conjugateprior.org · 18h

You're very welcome. Articulating what 'another level' means would be useful.

I think the challenge is to spell out, say, "the proportion of observed statistics more extreme than the observed one if the true parameter took the value 0 (which I think it doesn't)" without any counterfactuals  
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Will Lowe @conjugateprior.org · 21h

Hmm, gives a new meaning to having "a two-pipe problem"

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Will Lowe @conjugateprior.org · 21h

"pre-packaged mulled wine *worth* £110k" is either an amazing scientific breakthrough or just the usual stuff, but in such large quantities that they're going to have to use Malham Tarn to store it.

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Will Lowe @conjugateprior.org · 22h

Weirdly the criteria for naturalization now seem to be the same as for permanent residency which, from the immigrant's perspective, marks an interesting values-based choice point

(There's a relevant convo happening in the UK about ILR but naturally neither country is taking any notice of the other)

𝚃𝚊𝚛𝚊𝚜 𝙶𝚛𝚎𝚜𝚌𝚘𝚎 🚇 @taras-grescoe.com · 22h

“We assume that car use is an incompressible liquid that must be routed somewhere. But it’s more more like a gas that fills whatever space it is given.”

—Ian Lockwood, Harvard Loeb Fellow, transport planner.

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Will Lowe @conjugateprior.org · 22h

Fair. Electoral gain is an empirical question. Frankly I doubt anyone is trying to measure anything that might tell them, both because that's hard and because pure vibing is traditional on immigration issues.

I would note that none of this affects ease of immigration, just later naturalization.

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Will Lowe @conjugateprior.org · 22h

DIN 476, mfers

Gernot Wagner @gwagner.com · 23h

That's the key, yes:

Brain drain = missing brain gain

Won't make for splashy headlines, but let's just say I'm writing a lot of recommendation letters in A4 instead of Letter-sized format these days.

Thijs Heus @thijsheus.bsky.social · 1d

You won't notice those, is my guess. Those are the international postdocs/PhDs who now choose to go back to Europe/China/... instead of taking positions at the flaghsips.
Much of the US brain drain is going to be a lack of brain gain.

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Will Lowe @conjugateprior.org · 23h

I'm secretly sort of relieved that this was the sacrifice

"Look, look we are sooo tough, and now watch as we *smite* this bit of legislation [cheer now please] and reap the votes, having slowed down 500 people's applications for two years (which is about how long it takes in Berlin anyway)"

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Will Lowe @conjugateprior.org · 23h

[record scratch]
I expect you're wondering how I found myself putting "Duflo" on my mute words list.

Well... here it is.

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Will Lowe @conjugateprior.org · 23h

I'm not sure how attractive it could have been given ~500 people seem to have applied for it.

For (afaict mostly hypothetical) US arrivals, the EU blue card and ordinary residency setup seems fine, modulo standard Amt intractability. Allowing multiple passports is the low key game changer imho.

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Gernot Wagner @gwagner.com · 23h

That's the key, yes:

Brain drain = missing brain gain

Won't make for splashy headlines, but let's just say I'm writing a lot of recommendation letters in A4 instead of Letter-sized format these days.

Thijs Heus @thijsheus.bsky.social · 1d

You won't notice those, is my guess. Those are the international postdocs/PhDs who now choose to go back to Europe/China/... instead of taking positions at the flaghsips.
Much of the US brain drain is going to be a lack of brain gain.

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Will Lowe @conjugateprior.org · 23h

Possibly just because I was just rereading transacl.org/ojs/index.ph... but I feel like it wouldn't have hurt them to acknowledge the last 20 years of statistical annotator models. In particular the partially pooled versions.

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