Dan Pritchard - Another fananalyst data nerd
@1874pritch.bsky.social
Probably gonna be a bit looser on here
Ball knower, ⚽ Data Science with tactical context, probably politics & pop culture too
Subscribe to my Substack! I'll start posting when my PhD is finished...promise
Available for freelance analysis & writing, just
Ball knower, ⚽ Data Science with tactical context, probably politics & pop culture too
Subscribe to my Substack! I'll start posting when my PhD is finished...promise
Available for freelance analysis & writing, just
Then you go to physical therapy to tie yourself in a pretzel to hit that one specific muscle because you can't just stretch your arse.
Proof that Evolution has no foresight because Bipedalism has a lot to answer for.
Proof that Evolution has no foresight because Bipedalism has a lot to answer for.
December 10, 2025 at 10:04 AM
Then you go to physical therapy to tie yourself in a pretzel to hit that one specific muscle because you can't just stretch your arse.
Proof that Evolution has no foresight because Bipedalism has a lot to answer for.
Proof that Evolution has no foresight because Bipedalism has a lot to answer for.
A much more succinct way of putting it.
Points on the board + the model likes us because we beat Arsenal with improving underlying numbers.
Points on the board + the model likes us because we beat Arsenal with improving underlying numbers.
December 8, 2025 at 12:53 PM
A much more succinct way of putting it.
Points on the board + the model likes us because we beat Arsenal with improving underlying numbers.
Points on the board + the model likes us because we beat Arsenal with improving underlying numbers.
The inverse example is Wolves & Sunderland who are both relegation fight bad in underlying numbers. But because Wolves don't have points on the board they're 98% to go down because they aren't fancied in any of the simulated games too. Sunderland probably aren't fancied either but have points, so 4%
December 8, 2025 at 11:28 AM
The inverse example is Wolves & Sunderland who are both relegation fight bad in underlying numbers. But because Wolves don't have points on the board they're 98% to go down because they aren't fancied in any of the simulated games too. Sunderland probably aren't fancied either but have points, so 4%
I agree 80% is too high, the Opta model has a history of that though.
I think it's points on the board + the first 5 genuinely awful games have less & less weight on the calculations as we go on & those numbers have improved recently so the model fancies us more in the upcoming sim games.
I think it's points on the board + the first 5 genuinely awful games have less & less weight on the calculations as we go on & those numbers have improved recently so the model fancies us more in the upcoming sim games.
December 8, 2025 at 11:22 AM
I agree 80% is too high, the Opta model has a history of that though.
I think it's points on the board + the first 5 genuinely awful games have less & less weight on the calculations as we go on & those numbers have improved recently so the model fancies us more in the upcoming sim games.
I think it's points on the board + the first 5 genuinely awful games have less & less weight on the calculations as we go on & those numbers have improved recently so the model fancies us more in the upcoming sim games.
They'll have a team attack & defence ranking that uses something close to 70% xG 30% goals (or a scale that ranks xG higher in early season, goals later). Then use that to modify itself so our attack will get a bigger bump for chances at Arsenal compared to Burnley. Maybe there's squad value too.
December 8, 2025 at 11:10 AM
They'll have a team attack & defence ranking that uses something close to 70% xG 30% goals (or a scale that ranks xG higher in early season, goals later). Then use that to modify itself so our attack will get a bigger bump for chances at Arsenal compared to Burnley. Maybe there's squad value too.
The Opta supercomputer is a bit of a meme for the analytics community because it's not that great but the model will be based on both, points on the board are important. I think it is overvaluing a win against Arsenal with good xG & out recent catching up to results in our underlying numbers.
December 8, 2025 at 11:03 AM
The Opta supercomputer is a bit of a meme for the analytics community because it's not that great but the model will be based on both, points on the board are important. I think it is overvaluing a win against Arsenal with good xG & out recent catching up to results in our underlying numbers.
Not that those things aren't great because I don't share their philosophy. They're really damn good but the subtext is there & that shifts your view what a time it is forming.
December 4, 2025 at 4:03 PM
Not that those things aren't great because I don't share their philosophy. They're really damn good but the subtext is there & that shifts your view what a time it is forming.
With the exception of the Paul Verhoeven stuff most gen X favourites are Reagan-pilled.
Ghostbusters - academics find success as a private business that sticks it to the EPA
Die Hard - all-American cop takes on those well dressed Europeans
In Rambo subtext is just text. Cons forgot how to make art.
Ghostbusters - academics find success as a private business that sticks it to the EPA
Die Hard - all-American cop takes on those well dressed Europeans
In Rambo subtext is just text. Cons forgot how to make art.
December 4, 2025 at 4:01 PM
With the exception of the Paul Verhoeven stuff most gen X favourites are Reagan-pilled.
Ghostbusters - academics find success as a private business that sticks it to the EPA
Die Hard - all-American cop takes on those well dressed Europeans
In Rambo subtext is just text. Cons forgot how to make art.
Ghostbusters - academics find success as a private business that sticks it to the EPA
Die Hard - all-American cop takes on those well dressed Europeans
In Rambo subtext is just text. Cons forgot how to make art.
Yeah that PSG game was the one. Unfortunately they're yet to show that mentality when the chips are down for a semi final or at Old Trafford but I'm pretty confident Unai will get them there.
December 4, 2025 at 9:35 AM
Yeah that PSG game was the one. Unfortunately they're yet to show that mentality when the chips are down for a semi final or at Old Trafford but I'm pretty confident Unai will get them there.
You'd think but growing up there I know a decent number of people with accent's that strong.
December 1, 2025 at 6:37 PM
You'd think but growing up there I know a decent number of people with accent's that strong.
I was going to ask if you & Rich can tell the difference Grealish's Brummie & Jude's more generic midlands accent but then remembered that Grealish's accent is so strong that visiting aliens could tell the difference.
December 1, 2025 at 6:21 PM
I was going to ask if you & Rich can tell the difference Grealish's Brummie & Jude's more generic midlands accent but then remembered that Grealish's accent is so strong that visiting aliens could tell the difference.
Yeah like Grace I can pick out a strong US accent like Texas, NY or Boston specifically but outside of that it's very broad like west coast, southern or Midwestern. But ask me to pick out most Canadians & I'm lost.
December 1, 2025 at 5:43 PM
Yeah like Grace I can pick out a strong US accent like Texas, NY or Boston specifically but outside of that it's very broad like west coast, southern or Midwestern. But ask me to pick out most Canadians & I'm lost.
I don't know if it's bad to the American ear because I thought for years that Hugh Laurie's House accent was woeful, only to find out they all thought he was one of them.
December 1, 2025 at 5:13 PM
I don't know if it's bad to the American ear because I thought for years that Hugh Laurie's House accent was woeful, only to find out they all thought he was one of them.
Bit of column A, bit of column B, but their first year has been so bad that even when they're now trying to implement an actual popular policy (National ID polled pretty well pre-election), people have turned against it.
Stamer is so bad that he can't enact popular policy anymore.
Stamer is so bad that he can't enact popular policy anymore.
November 19, 2025 at 3:43 AM
Bit of column A, bit of column B, but their first year has been so bad that even when they're now trying to implement an actual popular policy (National ID polled pretty well pre-election), people have turned against it.
Stamer is so bad that he can't enact popular policy anymore.
Stamer is so bad that he can't enact popular policy anymore.
I think they should think about the things he says for longer than 30 seconds. Should put that notion right out of their heads.
November 15, 2025 at 6:40 PM
I think they should think about the things he says for longer than 30 seconds. Should put that notion right out of their heads.
There's the other side of that coin with the occasional beach football game of two sides with nothing to play for having a kick out & attempting passes & take ons they wouldn't usually.
All turnovers, no tracking back, pure fun vibes.
All turnovers, no tracking back, pure fun vibes.
November 14, 2025 at 1:55 PM
There's the other side of that coin with the occasional beach football game of two sides with nothing to play for having a kick out & attempting passes & take ons they wouldn't usually.
All turnovers, no tracking back, pure fun vibes.
All turnovers, no tracking back, pure fun vibes.
My vibesy take is they just decided ok then we'll attack with more players & because everyone else is obsessed with having 5-7 guys back it's paying dividends.
November 7, 2025 at 7:49 AM
My vibesy take is they just decided ok then we'll attack with more players & because everyone else is obsessed with having 5-7 guys back it's paying dividends.
Leaving twitter has meant I see so much less of this type of discourse & it's a vast improvement.
Have people decided he's a bad egg despite every media appearance he's done ever, or seriously thinking Rogers should be starting ahead of him?
Have people decided he's a bad egg despite every media appearance he's done ever, or seriously thinking Rogers should be starting ahead of him?
November 6, 2025 at 3:07 PM
Leaving twitter has meant I see so much less of this type of discourse & it's a vast improvement.
Have people decided he's a bad egg despite every media appearance he's done ever, or seriously thinking Rogers should be starting ahead of him?
Have people decided he's a bad egg despite every media appearance he's done ever, or seriously thinking Rogers should be starting ahead of him?
On that I just come back to how efficient & effective the attack was when Asensio was there with McGinn & Rogers either side, there was less pace than now.
There were also games without Tielemans in the pivot during that time too, the xG didn't suffer as much as now, not even close.
There were also games without Tielemans in the pivot during that time too, the xG didn't suffer as much as now, not even close.
November 4, 2025 at 9:46 AM
On that I just come back to how efficient & effective the attack was when Asensio was there with McGinn & Rogers either side, there was less pace than now.
There were also games without Tielemans in the pivot during that time too, the xG didn't suffer as much as now, not even close.
There were also games without Tielemans in the pivot during that time too, the xG didn't suffer as much as now, not even close.
Yeah that's my feeling too, Guessand puts in good shift so got the nod for this tough set of fixtures, kept it tight & nicked a couple for 6 points, not bad at all. Wouldn't be surprised to see the split 2 in Europe as a testing ground.
November 3, 2025 at 4:34 PM
Yeah that's my feeling too, Guessand puts in good shift so got the nod for this tough set of fixtures, kept it tight & nicked a couple for 6 points, not bad at all. Wouldn't be surprised to see the split 2 in Europe as a testing ground.
Yeah I'm definitely seeing that too. Lots more dropping in & running it up the left. I think it might be a result of slowing though.
I think it can be used to give more width like you say but there's got to be another runner like Malen there if that's where we're going.
I think it can be used to give more width like you say but there's got to be another runner like Malen there if that's where we're going.
November 3, 2025 at 4:19 PM
Yeah I'm definitely seeing that too. Lots more dropping in & running it up the left. I think it might be a result of slowing though.
I think it can be used to give more width like you say but there's got to be another runner like Malen there if that's where we're going.
I think it can be used to give more width like you say but there's got to be another runner like Malen there if that's where we're going.
To give them some credit Slot returned to last season with the more combative Dom in the middle & Bradley as the RB. Stopped us just dominating that area physically.
Concerned that Watkins isn't getting separation from his defender & occupying both CBs, was key for us. Totally different output.
Concerned that Watkins isn't getting separation from his defender & occupying both CBs, was key for us. Totally different output.
November 3, 2025 at 8:19 AM
To give them some credit Slot returned to last season with the more combative Dom in the middle & Bradley as the RB. Stopped us just dominating that area physically.
Concerned that Watkins isn't getting separation from his defender & occupying both CBs, was key for us. Totally different output.
Concerned that Watkins isn't getting separation from his defender & occupying both CBs, was key for us. Totally different output.