Alex Baker
@aabaker.bsky.social
Former (and hopefully future) Dem. data staffer, AZ->Chicago. Russian-American, Double Devil. Cardinals/Bears fan.
As an Alex who'd been to the donut place across the street from the execution site a couple times it reminds me of this tweet but for fascism.
January 24, 2026 at 10:13 PM
As an Alex who'd been to the donut place across the street from the execution site a couple times it reminds me of this tweet but for fascism.
(DA, Public Admin, Recorder, and Treasurer)
January 18, 2026 at 4:48 AM
(DA, Public Admin, Recorder, and Treasurer)
Wild how for such a "non-human" graph the trend repeats itself in both the 2022 and 2024 NV Sen. primaries (when measuring ratio of primary participation by machine) as well as the failed GOP 2022 canddiates for County Assessor, Clerk, DA, Public Administrator, Treasurer, and Recorder.
January 18, 2026 at 4:47 AM
Wild how for such a "non-human" graph the trend repeats itself in both the 2022 and 2024 NV Sen. primaries (when measuring ratio of primary participation by machine) as well as the failed GOP 2022 canddiates for County Assessor, Clerk, DA, Public Administrator, Treasurer, and Recorder.
I know marketmaker tried it on Philly's Prop 1 in 2021 (a nonbinding referendum politely asking the state to legalize marijuana) and it flagged some heavy-in-favor precincts as incremental fraud. Absolutely a level of false positives baked into the process.
January 17, 2026 at 4:53 PM
I know marketmaker tried it on Philly's Prop 1 in 2021 (a nonbinding referendum politely asking the state to legalize marijuana) and it flagged some heavy-in-favor precincts as incremental fraud. Absolutely a level of false positives baked into the process.
But then introduce partisanship on top of that and you've once again removed any noticeable positive coefficient.
January 17, 2026 at 4:08 AM
But then introduce partisanship on top of that and you've once again removed any noticeable positive coefficient.
Right - when other variables that are downstream from race get added (income, college education, etc.) they actually end up siphoning off some r^2 from race and unflattening the slope for a bit (even if turnout r^2 remains minimal), which is what is taking place in ETA's report.
January 17, 2026 at 4:04 AM
Right - when other variables that are downstream from race get added (income, college education, etc.) they actually end up siphoning off some r^2 from race and unflattening the slope for a bit (even if turnout r^2 remains minimal), which is what is taking place in ETA's report.
Same goes for using the %Black population rate in a given precinct.
January 17, 2026 at 2:41 AM
Same goes for using the %Black population rate in a given precinct.
Jumping in to say I've done the next best thing (since there isn't party registration) by measuring what % of votes in the Aug. 2024 Senate primary in a given precinct were Dem/GOP. When adding that in as a control for non-Detroit Wayne all predictive power for turnout vs. trump_pct disappears.
January 17, 2026 at 2:38 AM
Jumping in to say I've done the next best thing (since there isn't party registration) by measuring what % of votes in the Aug. 2024 Senate primary in a given precinct were Dem/GOP. When adding that in as a control for non-Detroit Wayne all predictive power for turnout vs. trump_pct disappears.
How many other Luigi/Waluigi combos (Pat Toomey/Toohey, John Fetterman/Featherman) does Pennsylvania have in its political past?
May 9, 2025 at 7:33 PM
How many other Luigi/Waluigi combos (Pat Toomey/Toohey, John Fetterman/Featherman) does Pennsylvania have in its political past?
Was browsing UK election results when I noticed who Labour put forth in Aldershot...
July 6, 2024 at 12:42 AM
Was browsing UK election results when I noticed who Labour put forth in Aldershot...
"David Duke? The Spurs G-League shooting guard?"
May 14, 2024 at 4:06 AM
"David Duke? The Spurs G-League shooting guard?"
Ben's appearance in the music video is on a panoply of different TV screens, all talking at me like he's Big Brother's sidekick in 1984 Little Brother, trying to epically own me in a debate about the merits of IngSoc.
January 26, 2024 at 9:32 PM
Ben's appearance in the music video is on a panoply of different TV screens, all talking at me like he's Big Brother's sidekick in 1984 Little Brother, trying to epically own me in a debate about the merits of IngSoc.
Spotted at the Chicago Field Museum:
September 15, 2023 at 2:17 AM
Spotted at the Chicago Field Museum: