The “current conditions” subcomponent is down, I think that’s what he was referring to

E.g. my favorite version (whatever it is) has triggered, therefore we are in recession.

Like I said, I really appreciate the paper! Thanks for sharing your thoughts here too.

That said, it may make sense to explicitly state the “best” rule (some version of the U6) to give readers/users a guide. Of course, there is risk in that they may take it as ok to ignore the others. But the risk in not stating, it may encourage the cherrypicking you are trying to prevent.

Thanks again. I appreciate the paper and your discussion. I think it makes sense to use “domain knowledge” (ie economic theory) to trim the set of rules to ones that are theoretically justified, either before or after the search. This comes across in the paper too.

It seems it’s against the spirit of your paper a bit, but I wonder about weights on these different rules in a BMA probit framework (eg Owyang, Piger, Wall 2015 jeremypiger.com/assets/files...)

Thanks for the detailed response. I like the theoretical argument. It seems you are recommending not choosing any single specific alternative, but instead using broader slack measures and keeping an open mind.

Nice paper, Mark. What is the modified rule? 3 month MA of U6 rises by 0.5 pp above its 18 month MA? Sorry if I missed it in the paper.

And run y ~ log(x).
And use follower counts from before the election.

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

April 2 as in the rates he announced on april 2? Or the lower rates pre- April 2?

Paulie at Go Physio is both a PT and bike fitter. I have used him for both and have had a good experience. If looking for something cheaper/more informal, you might want to search around local bike shops.

The “dont worry” case is that it’s easier for We ❤️ Mpls to shift caucus percentages because caucuses are a relatively small number of people. The marginal W10 general election voter is likely just as progressive.

Single series graphs look ok. Multiple series graphs look horrible, especially the third series “dotted” line. The dashes and dots are spaced too far apart and the dots are too small.

Massively exaggerating the extent of the (very real) problem and then calling a large portion of the country a “thown-away zone” isn’t helpful. ✌🏻

Yes, the “thrown-away zones” where income is up nearly 70%. Not a thriving zone like yours, where incomes are up “maybe, 10%-15%” 🙄

Wherever you live, it is not nationally representative. Nationally, home prices are roughly double that of 2009 while median income is up about 70%.