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Andrew Sissons

@acjsissons.bsky.social

7.4K followers 850 following 5.6K posts

Day job: climate change, heat pumps, energy at Nesta Other stuff: low-fi economics on growth, cities & economic geography, general UK policy, occasional basic charts Bristol, he/him, lots of parenting / caring. Personal account.

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Andrew Sissons @acjsissons.bsky.social · Feb 14

New personal post: is net zero good or bad for growth?

This is a long post on a tricky topic, so this is a thread too.
I wrote it because people are making strong claims about net zero without really paying attention to the facts. And the facts keep changing

acjsissons.medium.com/is-net-zero-...

Is net zero good or bad for growth?

The underlying facts about net zero and growth keep changing. The proponents for each side, however, do not tend to change their minds…

acjsissons.medium.com

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Reposted by Andrew Sissons

James Murray @james-bg.bsky.social · 4h

Nesta expands free heat pump for heat pump engineers scheme. www.businessgreen.com/news/4520071...

Nesta launches heat pump 'giveaway' scheme for engineers

'Start at Home' initiative aims to help tackle skills gap that is expected to require 38,000 heat pump engineers over the coming years

www.businessgreen.com

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Andrew Sissons @acjsissons.bsky.social · 17h

Sure, but any decisions we make now are based on future wind farms (generally at fairly competitive prices).

We can’t do anything about the contracts agreed back in the 2010s (short of ripping up contracts), and nor would we build renewables at those prices again

Andrew Sissons @acjsissons.bsky.social · 22h

Ian makes a fair point here that the actual BTP position may be more nuanced than the story implies

Ian @ianpatterson.com · 1d

There was a chap from BTP interviewed on R4 Today earlier. It's nothing to do with how long a bike is left for, it's a rough budget for how much time someone can review CCTV for. The BBC seem to think someone can only watch CCTV linearly at 1x speed, not (say) do binary search and use xX speed

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Andrew Sissons @acjsissons.bsky.social · 22h

Thanks - that makes sense.

My worry is that if you say this kind of thing publicly, you reduce the deterrent effect (in so far as it still exists). So better to retain ambiguity than admit you don’t investigate. But I can see the story doing a lot of that

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Andrew Sissons @acjsissons.bsky.social · 23h

Thanks - so BTP were saying they wouldn't spend more than 2 hours reviewing footage? Or was it just a general comment that they can't spend too much time reviewing footage?

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Andrew Sissons @acjsissons.bsky.social · 23h

Well yes, most of the currently active CfDs are from AR1 and before, before prices fell.
The most recent auction, AR6 (the one everyone is saying was expensive) came in at around £75 in 2024 prices.

Andrew Sissons @acjsissons.bsky.social · 1d

The headline is obviously what campaigners say, but the statement from BTP seems to corroborate the “won’t investigate if left over 2 hours” substance, unless I’m missing something?

Andrew Sissons @acjsissons.bsky.social · 1d

Policing is 100% not my area, but… it seems like a very bad idea to publicly announce that you won’t investigate most bike thefts from stations?

www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Bike thefts at stations 'decriminalised'

The British Transport Police will not investigate many categories of bicycle theft, the BBC learns.

www.bbc.co.uk

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Reposted by Andrew Sissons

Renewal @renewaljournal.bsky.social · 1d

"Most of us basically love our country, even if begrudgingly – not the version we’re told to, or even presented with, but the one we really see and live in every day. Silly Sausage Britain is the Britain most of us reside in, and love."

@sofiejenkinson.bsky.social on "Mr Blobby patriotism"

Mr Blobby patriotism

Over recent weeks I have found myself thinking about the country we live in, what it feels like and what I like, and love, about it. I guess I found myself thinking about this because of the summer w...

renewal.org.uk

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Andrew Sissons @acjsissons.bsky.social · 2d

Andrew Sissons @acjsissons.bsky.social · 3d

I’d have to check the supply and use tables for this, but my guess is: it’s a bit, but not the biggest factor.
Food inflation and wage growth (partly due to minimum wage) will be the major drivers I expect. But various cost-of-doing-business costs, including rates and utility bills a factor

Andrew Sissons @acjsissons.bsky.social · 3d

I did an old thread on the enormous recent rise in insurance costs btw.
Insurance is a relatively small part of consumer and business spending, but the price increases since 2021 have been eye-watering, especially for car insurance

Andrew Sissons @acjsissons.bsky.social · Dec 4

I've had a look into this question - how much a role have insurance costs played in the cost of living crisis - and I have some tentative answers.

Tl;dr - insurance costs have gone up a lot, but it's not that big an element of either household or business spending.
(Quick thread)

Andrew Sissons @acjsissons.bsky.social · Nov 25

Question: are there any good estimates for how much of the “cost of living crisis” is down to insurance costs?

Andrew Sissons @acjsissons.bsky.social · 3d

I’m sure we’ve talked about insurance before! And concluded it’s mainly higher claims with a bit of interest rates and other factors?

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Andrew Sissons @acjsissons.bsky.social · 4d

Hope you’re coping ok this weekend!

Andrew Sissons @acjsissons.bsky.social · 4d

Did not know this - makes sense though!

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Andrew Sissons @acjsissons.bsky.social · 4d

(Of course, Arthur was up for most of the night and is struggling to regulate today. Pretty sure it’s the weather)

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Andrew Sissons @acjsissons.bsky.social · 4d

Changes in air pressure can have a big effect on our sensory systems. This is a big deal for most autistic people, but many neurotypical people have sensory preferences too. We should pay more attention to them!

www.autistica.org.uk/what-is-auti...

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Reposted by Andrew Sissons

Andrew Sissons @acjsissons.bsky.social · 4d

Another possible AI bubble I am worried about is all the start-ups and companies that have been pushed by investors to pivot to AI-based business models.

If that turns out to be a dead end for many of them, it could really hurt future productivity growth, perhaps more than if the big AI firms fail

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Reposted by Andrew Sissons

Andrew Sissons @acjsissons.bsky.social · 4d

I've been playing around with visualising CPI figures, and the striking thing about food and eating out is that they are such a big part of our consumption basket.
Both have gone up in price a fair bit since 2008, and that has made a big overall contribution to inflation...

Bubble chart shows different goods and services in the CPI basket. The x axis is how much we consume, based on CPI weight. Eating Out and Food are the two largest categories on that scale. The y axis is how much prices have risen between 2008 and 2024. Tobacco, energy, insurance and public transport stand out as high inflation items. Eating out and food are around 60 - 70% rise in prices since 2008.
The colour of the bubbles also has darker colours for higher inflation from 2021 to 2024. Energy and insurance have the highest inflation recently.

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Andrew Sissons @acjsissons.bsky.social · 4d

So if a typical household is spending something like £150 a month on their energy bill, then they're spending something like £700 a month on food and eating out combined (or at least that's what the inflation basket includes)

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Andrew Sissons @acjsissons.bsky.social · 4d

The clickable chart here is much easier to use.
public.flourish.studio/visualisatio...

And if you missed the alt text:
- X axis is how much we consume (CPI weights)
- Size of bubbles is also how much we consume
- Y axis is 2008 - 2024 inflation
- Colour is 2021 - 2024 inflation

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Andrew Sissons @acjsissons.bsky.social · 4d

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Andrew Sissons @acjsissons.bsky.social · 4d

Roy Wood would be happy with that

Andrew Sissons @acjsissons.bsky.social · 4d

They’re really nice aren’t they. I think this is the first one I’ve seen in the wild - makes a change from the not-very-wholesome graffiti phase on St Michael’s Hill

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Andrew Sissons @acjsissons.bsky.social · 4d

Yes, a very striking deep voice