Jennifer Lang
@actuarialeye.bsky.social
Sydney based actuary and director looking at the world through an actuarial eye. Lots of statistics, often feminist. She/her
When I did the Tour de Mont Blanc (France, Italy, Switzerland) there were public buses AND banned private parking at many trailheads. We were on a group tour, but still used the public buses in most cases as they were the best option! So much better than the overfull parking lots we have here in Oz.
November 10, 2025 at 4:52 AM
When I did the Tour de Mont Blanc (France, Italy, Switzerland) there were public buses AND banned private parking at many trailheads. We were on a group tour, but still used the public buses in most cases as they were the best option! So much better than the overfull parking lots we have here in Oz.
Thanks, yes will fix!
November 10, 2025 at 4:38 AM
Thanks, yes will fix!
Bottom line is, increased global heating caused by climate change is and will be directly bad for human health and mortality, as well as all the other impacts on our world.
November 10, 2025 at 4:21 AM
Bottom line is, increased global heating caused by climate change is and will be directly bad for human health and mortality, as well as all the other impacts on our world.
There's a whole lot of caveats around this - we could mitigate the worst experience - but there will also be other causes of death not counted here, like bushfire pollution, natural disasters, and increased tropical disasters.
November 10, 2025 at 4:20 AM
There's a whole lot of caveats around this - we could mitigate the worst experience - but there will also be other causes of death not counted here, like bushfire pollution, natural disasters, and increased tropical disasters.
Further research (repackaged by Our World In data) concluded that heat related deaths would increase by 7.68 per 100,000 people by 2030, 20.39 by 2050, and 49.93 by 2090. that’s an increased death rate of 1%, 3% and 7% in 2030, 2050 and 2090 respectively.
November 10, 2025 at 4:19 AM
Further research (repackaged by Our World In data) concluded that heat related deaths would increase by 7.68 per 100,000 people by 2030, 20.39 by 2050, and 49.93 by 2090. that’s an increased death rate of 1%, 3% and 7% in 2030, 2050 and 2090 respectively.
The research I found, from Our World in Data, shows that in the hotter months, Australia is already getting around 0.6% extra deaths every summer due to climate change related heatwaves, or 300-350 extra deaths.
November 10, 2025 at 4:18 AM
The research I found, from Our World in Data, shows that in the hotter months, Australia is already getting around 0.6% extra deaths every summer due to climate change related heatwaves, or 300-350 extra deaths.
Most deaths in heatwaves don't mention heat on the certificate. You probably pictured someone passing out from heat stroke. But this is not how most people die from “heat”. They die from conditions such as cardiovascular or kidney disease, respiratory infections, or diabetes.
November 10, 2025 at 4:17 AM
Most deaths in heatwaves don't mention heat on the certificate. You probably pictured someone passing out from heat stroke. But this is not how most people die from “heat”. They die from conditions such as cardiovascular or kidney disease, respiratory infections, or diabetes.
The extra deaths will mostly be at older age groups, and among those who find it harder to shelter from heat. There are likely to be other climate related reasons death rates will increase – extra pollution from fires, more tropical diseases, natural disasters not included in this number.
November 10, 2025 at 4:16 AM
The extra deaths will mostly be at older age groups, and among those who find it harder to shelter from heat. There are likely to be other climate related reasons death rates will increase – extra pollution from fires, more tropical diseases, natural disasters not included in this number.
In Australia, the number of deaths per annum is likely to increase by around 1% by 2030 up to 7% by the end of this century due to global heating.
November 10, 2025 at 4:16 AM
In Australia, the number of deaths per annum is likely to increase by around 1% by 2030 up to 7% by the end of this century due to global heating.
In Sydney, Australia, Citymapper does this, using the underlying open source map. It also gives you three options depending on your level of comfort with traffic. It's not perfect, but WAAAAY better than google, which doesn't even seem to notice bike lanes half the time.
October 8, 2025 at 4:24 AM
In Sydney, Australia, Citymapper does this, using the underlying open source map. It also gives you three options depending on your level of comfort with traffic. It's not perfect, but WAAAAY better than google, which doesn't even seem to notice bike lanes half the time.
Lucrezia Borgia's hair ( and possibly her rings?) are in a museum in Milan
May 29, 2025 at 7:20 AM
Lucrezia Borgia's hair ( and possibly her rings?) are in a museum in Milan
From memory NZ COVID has always been less than Oz. 2022 the big year in both countries, but lower in NZ. The actuaries institute in Oz will be putting out some international research in a couple of months so I'll post it here.
May 20, 2025 at 2:53 AM
From memory NZ COVID has always been less than Oz. 2022 the big year in both countries, but lower in NZ. The actuaries institute in Oz will be putting out some international research in a couple of months so I'll post it here.
I'm also curious about this, the Covid experience in the last couple of years is significantly better than Australia (very similar before). Vaccination rates don't seem that different. NZers seemed to have retained a bit more of the idea of not going out when you're sick etc - cultural differences?
May 19, 2025 at 10:19 PM
I'm also curious about this, the Covid experience in the last couple of years is significantly better than Australia (very similar before). Vaccination rates don't seem that different. NZers seemed to have retained a bit more of the idea of not going out when you're sick etc - cultural differences?
Definitely true but I did love how easy it was to get across the river, so many bridges for pedestrians and cyclists. Of course I was comparing to Sydney Australia which is not much of a comparison.
May 18, 2025 at 2:56 AM
Definitely true but I did love how easy it was to get across the river, so many bridges for pedestrians and cyclists. Of course I was comparing to Sydney Australia which is not much of a comparison.
I know Paris gets all the credit in France, but I stayed in Toulouse for two weeks last year, and the whole centre was just lovely, hardly any cars, bike share available everywhere (and integrated with the metro system), so many squares to hang out in. www.toulouse-tourisme.com/en/prepare-f...
Getting around Toulouse by bike - Toulouse Tourisme
Cycling is a very practical and eco-friendly way to get around Toulouse with more than 600km of cycling facilities and 300km of cycle paths.
www.toulouse-tourisme.com
May 17, 2025 at 5:27 AM
I know Paris gets all the credit in France, but I stayed in Toulouse for two weeks last year, and the whole centre was just lovely, hardly any cars, bike share available everywhere (and integrated with the metro system), so many squares to hang out in. www.toulouse-tourisme.com/en/prepare-f...
Hi Denis, I still follow your stats, and wondered if you know whether vaccination rates or doses etc in Australia are still being published? I've not looked for a while, and the actuaries are thinking of including them in our annual mortality report.
April 8, 2025 at 6:56 AM
Hi Denis, I still follow your stats, and wondered if you know whether vaccination rates or doses etc in Australia are still being published? I've not looked for a while, and the actuaries are thinking of including them in our annual mortality report.
The full analysis is shown here. /ends www.actuaries.digital/2025/03/20/c...
COVID-19 Deaths the Key Driver for 2024 Excess Mortality to November - Actuaries Digital
In their latest article, the Mortality Working Group shares excess mortality analysis for the first 11 months of 20224.
www.actuaries.digital
March 22, 2025 at 4:15 AM
The full analysis is shown here. /ends www.actuaries.digital/2025/03/20/c...
Our projected deaths were calculated using 2023 mortality rates as a starting point, with long term rates of improvements from non respiratory causes, the same mortality rates for respiratory diseases as 2023, and an assumption of reduced deaths from Covid-19. www.actuaries.digital/2024/04/24/e...
Excess Mortality: Considerations in Moving Away from a Pre-pandemic Baseline - Actuaries Digital
The Mortality Working Group is planning to make a significant change to the baseline (or expected number of deaths) used when measuring excess mortality for Australia.The Working Group intends to move...
www.actuaries.digital
March 22, 2025 at 4:15 AM
Our projected deaths were calculated using 2023 mortality rates as a starting point, with long term rates of improvements from non respiratory causes, the same mortality rates for respiratory diseases as 2023, and an assumption of reduced deaths from Covid-19. www.actuaries.digital/2024/04/24/e...
The table below shows all major causes of deaths for the eleven months to November 2024, with the overall picture showing 1,400 more deaths than our prediction, all of which is explained by the extra deaths from Covid-19.
March 22, 2025 at 4:11 AM
The table below shows all major causes of deaths for the eleven months to November 2024, with the overall picture showing 1,400 more deaths than our prediction, all of which is explained by the extra deaths from Covid-19.
For other causes of death, respiratory deaths (excluding Covid-19) were 7% higher than predicted, with five times as many deaths from Covid-19 as from influenza.
Deaths from cancer wwere 2% lower than predicted.
Deaths from cancer wwere 2% lower than predicted.
March 22, 2025 at 4:10 AM
For other causes of death, respiratory deaths (excluding Covid-19) were 7% higher than predicted, with five times as many deaths from Covid-19 as from influenza.
Deaths from cancer wwere 2% lower than predicted.
Deaths from cancer wwere 2% lower than predicted.
The overall pattern of mortality for the year is shown in this graph, with almost all weeks within the 95% prediction interval, but winter deaths generally higher than projected.
March 22, 2025 at 4:09 AM
The overall pattern of mortality for the year is shown in this graph, with almost all weeks within the 95% prediction interval, but winter deaths generally higher than projected.
The next graph shows the pattern of deaths from Covid-19 in 2024 compared with 2023, also showing the 2023 waves shifted to be at the same time as 2024 to make the comparison easier to see.
March 22, 2025 at 4:07 AM
The next graph shows the pattern of deaths from Covid-19 in 2024 compared with 2023, also showing the 2023 waves shifted to be at the same time as 2024 to make the comparison easier to see.
This graph shows the Covid deaths from and with Covid-19 for 2022, 2023 and 2024, and our predicted level of deaths from Covid-19 during 2024. We had projected two waves of Covid-19 during 2024, both lower than 2023, but instead they were fairly similar.
March 22, 2025 at 4:06 AM
This graph shows the Covid deaths from and with Covid-19 for 2022, 2023 and 2024, and our predicted level of deaths from Covid-19 during 2024. We had projected two waves of Covid-19 during 2024, both lower than 2023, but instead they were fairly similar.