Adam #LondonCityTrader
@adamharrisuk.bsky.social
🇬🇧 Pro-Democracy Financial Markets Trader, Analyst and Content Provider for U.S., U.K., and E.U.
Author | Speaker | Doer
Author | Speaker | Doer
6/6
TL;DR: Cutting rates into rising inflation = short-term sugar rush, long-term stagflation hangover. Tight policy cools demand without crashing growth. Watch FOMC dots. #FedWatch #Inflation
TL;DR: Cutting rates into rising inflation = short-term sugar rush, long-term stagflation hangover. Tight policy cools demand without crashing growth. Watch FOMC dots. #FedWatch #Inflation
October 29, 2025 at 2:27 PM
6/6
TL;DR: Cutting rates into rising inflation = short-term sugar rush, long-term stagflation hangover. Tight policy cools demand without crashing growth. Watch FOMC dots. #FedWatch #Inflation
TL;DR: Cutting rates into rising inflation = short-term sugar rush, long-term stagflation hangover. Tight policy cools demand without crashing growth. Watch FOMC dots. #FedWatch #Inflation
5/6
Only cut if inflation’s pure supply-shock & growth’s collapsing. If core PCE >2% and rising? Hold or hike. Dual mandate says price stability first. Markets price 25-50 bps cuts in ‘25—data could flip that script.
Only cut if inflation’s pure supply-shock & growth’s collapsing. If core PCE >2% and rising? Hold or hike. Dual mandate says price stability first. Markets price 25-50 bps cuts in ‘25—data could flip that script.
October 29, 2025 at 2:27 PM
5/6
Only cut if inflation’s pure supply-shock & growth’s collapsing. If core PCE >2% and rising? Hold or hike. Dual mandate says price stability first. Markets price 25-50 bps cuts in ‘25—data could flip that script.
Only cut if inflation’s pure supply-shock & growth’s collapsing. If core PCE >2% and rising? Hold or hike. Dual mandate says price stability first. Markets price 25-50 bps cuts in ‘25—data could flip that script.
4/6
Dangers:
✅ USD weakens → imported inflation (oil/food up)
✅ Asset bubbles (stocks, housing)
✅ Inequality widens (rich get richer)
Easy money now = “higher for longer” pain later.
Dangers:
✅ USD weakens → imported inflation (oil/food up)
✅ Asset bubbles (stocks, housing)
✅ Inequality widens (rich get richer)
Easy money now = “higher for longer” pain later.
October 29, 2025 at 2:27 PM
4/6
Dangers:
✅ USD weakens → imported inflation (oil/food up)
✅ Asset bubbles (stocks, housing)
✅ Inequality widens (rich get richer)
Easy money now = “higher for longer” pain later.
Dangers:
✅ USD weakens → imported inflation (oil/food up)
✅ Asset bubbles (stocks, housing)
✅ Inequality widens (rich get richer)
Easy money now = “higher for longer” pain later.
3/6
Real rates go negative (nominal < inflation). Savers get crushed, debtors party. Signals Fed’s soft on prices → expectations unanchor. Once people expect 5-6% inflation, it’s baked into contracts & harder to kill.
Real rates go negative (nominal < inflation). Savers get crushed, debtors party. Signals Fed’s soft on prices → expectations unanchor. Once people expect 5-6% inflation, it’s baked into contracts & harder to kill.
October 29, 2025 at 2:27 PM
3/6
Real rates go negative (nominal < inflation). Savers get crushed, debtors party. Signals Fed’s soft on prices → expectations unanchor. Once people expect 5-6% inflation, it’s baked into contracts & harder to kill.
Real rates go negative (nominal < inflation). Savers get crushed, debtors party. Signals Fed’s soft on prices → expectations unanchor. Once people expect 5-6% inflation, it’s baked into contracts & harder to kill.
2/6
1970s proof: Fed cut rates from 9%→4% as inflation hit 6%→11%. Took Volcker’s 20% hikes + deep recession to fix it. Cutting now risks the same wage-price doom loop: workers demand raises → firms hike prices → repeat.
1970s proof: Fed cut rates from 9%→4% as inflation hit 6%→11%. Took Volcker’s 20% hikes + deep recession to fix it. Cutting now risks the same wage-price doom loop: workers demand raises → firms hike prices → repeat.
October 29, 2025 at 2:27 PM
2/6
1970s proof: Fed cut rates from 9%→4% as inflation hit 6%→11%. Took Volcker’s 20% hikes + deep recession to fix it. Cutting now risks the same wage-price doom loop: workers demand raises → firms hike prices → repeat.
1970s proof: Fed cut rates from 9%→4% as inflation hit 6%→11%. Took Volcker’s 20% hikes + deep recession to fix it. Cutting now risks the same wage-price doom loop: workers demand raises → firms hike prices → repeat.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD 114,964, +3.3%) held firm inside 108k–120k. Acting as “digital gold,” it followed equities and bullion higher. Watch $119.7k for breakout; $108.5k for support. ₿
September 12, 2025 at 5:26 PM
Bitcoin (BTC/USD 114,964, +3.3%) held firm inside 108k–120k. Acting as “digital gold,” it followed equities and bullion higher. Watch $119.7k for breakout; $108.5k for support. ₿
Gold shone bright: XAU/USD closed 3,644 (+6.0%). The biggest breakout in months as investors sought insurance against policy confusion. First support sits around 3,600; dips likely bought. 🪙
September 12, 2025 at 5:26 PM
Gold shone bright: XAU/USD closed 3,644 (+6.0%). The biggest breakout in months as investors sought insurance against policy confusion. First support sits around 3,600; dips likely bought. 🪙
Equities powered ahead: the S&P 500 closed 6,595 (+1.6%), hitting new highs. In the UK, the FTSE 100 rose to 9,298 (+0.8%). Falling yields and risk appetite lifted global indices despite macro noise. 📈
September 12, 2025 at 5:26 PM
Equities powered ahead: the S&P 500 closed 6,595 (+1.6%), hitting new highs. In the UK, the FTSE 100 rose to 9,298 (+0.8%). Falling yields and risk appetite lifted global indices despite macro noise. 📈
5/5
📉📈 Verdict: A path exists (SpaceX + a Tesla re-acceleration), but requires clean execution, fewer controversies, and no major legal hits. Odds <50% in the medium term; watch Starship milestones, Tesla margins, and FSD/legal outcomes. 👀
📉📈 Verdict: A path exists (SpaceX + a Tesla re-acceleration), but requires clean execution, fewer controversies, and no major legal hits. Odds <50% in the medium term; watch Starship milestones, Tesla margins, and FSD/legal outcomes. 👀
September 8, 2025 at 9:41 AM
5/5
📉📈 Verdict: A path exists (SpaceX + a Tesla re-acceleration), but requires clean execution, fewer controversies, and no major legal hits. Odds <50% in the medium term; watch Starship milestones, Tesla margins, and FSD/legal outcomes. 👀
📉📈 Verdict: A path exists (SpaceX + a Tesla re-acceleration), but requires clean execution, fewer controversies, and no major legal hits. Odds <50% in the medium term; watch Starship milestones, Tesla margins, and FSD/legal outcomes. 👀