Adam Wolfe
@adamkwolfe.bsky.social
An economist at Absolute Strategy Research.
Probably would have been worth mentioning somewhere in this article that the "corporate profits" series that they're talking about only covers the industrial sector, not the whole economy .... www.ft.com/content/58a3...
China corporate profits set for third year of declines
Oversupply drives intense competition that is undermining prices and profitability
www.ft.com
January 13, 2025 at 9:11 AM
Probably would have been worth mentioning somewhere in this article that the "corporate profits" series that they're talking about only covers the industrial sector, not the whole economy .... www.ft.com/content/58a3...
China is in for a rough year, but its fiscal policy has already become more stimulative than most seem to think. As I note in this Economist article, moving the restructuring of local debts outside of the fiscal perimeter has freed up CNY1.2tn for supporting domestic demand next year,
China’s economy is in for another rough year
Bold action is needed to turn things around
www.economist.com
December 19, 2024 at 12:11 PM
China is in for a rough year, but its fiscal policy has already become more stimulative than most seem to think. As I note in this Economist article, moving the restructuring of local debts outside of the fiscal perimeter has freed up CNY1.2tn for supporting domestic demand next year,
Thanks, @jdmayger.bsky.social, for the quote in this Bloomberg article on tariff avoidance in the US. I estimate US Customs missed upwards of $160 billion of imports from China last year in their trade data... www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Trump China Tariff Plan Has $64 Billion Hole in Missing Imports
President-elect Donald Trump has promised to impose 10% tariffs on all imports from China as soon as he takes office next month.
www.bloomberg.com
December 5, 2024 at 3:40 PM
Thanks, @jdmayger.bsky.social, for the quote in this Bloomberg article on tariff avoidance in the US. I estimate US Customs missed upwards of $160 billion of imports from China last year in their trade data... www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Did higher US tariffs cause upwards of $160 billion of Chinese imports to go missing from the US Customs data last year?
Probably, yes.
www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-us...
Probably, yes.
www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-us...
December 5, 2024 at 2:20 PM
Did higher US tariffs cause upwards of $160 billion of Chinese imports to go missing from the US Customs data last year?
Probably, yes.
www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-us...
Probably, yes.
www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-us...
It's good to see a major news organisation highlighting that China became the leading exporter of cars not by selling EVs but rather by reorienting a small portion of its now unneeded ICE production capacity to foreign markets. I've been banging on about this for years, to little effect.
How China Became the World’s Largest Car Exporter
Tariffs from the United States and other countries are unlikely to stop China’s auto export dominance.
www.nytimes.com
November 29, 2024 at 3:57 PM
It's good to see a major news organisation highlighting that China became the leading exporter of cars not by selling EVs but rather by reorienting a small portion of its now unneeded ICE production capacity to foreign markets. I've been banging on about this for years, to little effect.
China’s 30-year government bond yield has fallen below that of Japan. This, naturally, has sparked another round of stories about the “Japanification” of China. These stories are mostly nonsense though. Let me explain.
November 29, 2024 at 12:45 PM
China’s 30-year government bond yield has fallen below that of Japan. This, naturally, has sparked another round of stories about the “Japanification” of China. These stories are mostly nonsense though. Let me explain.
The PBoC “will likely continue to support the yuan for a while given its financial stability concerns about a bigger devaluation. But if a trade war does kick off, the PBOC might allow more depreciation to protect China’s exports and improve its negotiating position.”
China’s Dream of ‘Powerful Currency’ Runs Into Trump’s Return
China’s President Xi Jinping wants a “powerful currency” that is stable enough to play a rising role in global trade. Donald Trump’s return looks set to challenge that ambition.
www.bloomberg.com
November 18, 2024 at 8:31 AM
The PBoC “will likely continue to support the yuan for a while given its financial stability concerns about a bigger devaluation. But if a trade war does kick off, the PBOC might allow more depreciation to protect China’s exports and improve its negotiating position.”
Xi seems to be saying that the Inca civilization had Chinese roots in his letter to Peru. That seems like a weird claim, but I haven't really followed the recent, official rewriting of ancient history that closely. Anyone know where this is coming from? english.news.cn/20241114/4f5...
Full Text of Chinese president's signed article in Peruvian media
english.news.cn
November 15, 2024 at 9:59 AM
Xi seems to be saying that the Inca civilization had Chinese roots in his letter to Peru. That seems like a weird claim, but I haven't really followed the recent, official rewriting of ancient history that closely. Anyone know where this is coming from? english.news.cn/20241114/4f5...
The PBoC's FX policy is a big question for the forthcoming round of the US-China trade war. Will it allow CNY weakness like in 2018 (protect exports)? Or prop up the CNY like it has more recently (protect financial stability)? Today's fixing rate suggests was in line with the latter.
November 13, 2024 at 9:54 AM
The PBoC's FX policy is a big question for the forthcoming round of the US-China trade war. Will it allow CNY weakness like in 2018 (protect exports)? Or prop up the CNY like it has more recently (protect financial stability)? Today's fixing rate suggests was in line with the latter.