🟢changing target location
🟢improving technique
🟢changing average strike location
While this is an extreme example (water), imagine making these kinds of improvements on every single shot you hit.
🟢changing target location
🟢improving technique
🟢changing average strike location
While this is an extreme example (water), imagine making these kinds of improvements on every single shot you hit.
And the predicted score would be 3.29
And the predicted score would be 3.29
Now 90% of the shots fall within the acceptable area
Now 90% of the shots fall within the acceptable area
And predicted score would be 3.47
And predicted score would be 3.47
Meaning, 25% more shots fall within 25 yards of max.
Meaning, 25% more shots fall within 25 yards of max.
Strikes outside of the area will fall short (combination of fat contact and loss of smash).
So around 45% of shots are falling 25 yards short of max
Strikes outside of the area will fall short (combination of fat contact and loss of smash).
So around 45% of shots are falling 25 yards short of max
51% x 2.9
11% x 3.4
38% x 5
a predicted score of 3.75
But let's take it a step further
51% x 2.9
11% x 3.4
38% x 5
a predicted score of 3.75
But let's take it a step further
The player now decides to ignore the flag and target the back-middle of the green
The player now decides to ignore the flag and target the back-middle of the green
17% x 2.9
6% x 3.4
77% x 5
Average predicted score = 4.55
Likely higher given that they will probably take more than 3 shots to get in the hole from the drop zone
17% x 2.9
6% x 3.4
77% x 5
Average predicted score = 4.55
Likely higher given that they will probably take more than 3 shots to get in the hole from the drop zone
Predicted score AT LEAST 5 (assumes they make par from the drop zone, on average).
Predicted score AT LEAST 5 (assumes they make par from the drop zone, on average).
(predicted score of 3.4)
(predicted score of 3.4)
(10% holed - the rest 2-putts)
(10% holed - the rest 2-putts)
So they pull the club that they hit 160 on their best shots.
These are their predicted results - imagine if they play this hole 100 times.
So they pull the club that they hit 160 on their best shots.
These are their predicted results - imagine if they play this hole 100 times.
Each red X represents 1/100 shot, or we could say it's a 1% probability.
The best shots for this player are around 160 yards
Each red X represents 1/100 shot, or we could say it's a 1% probability.
The best shots for this player are around 160 yards
Luckily, the green is pretty big - 45x45 yards.
Luckily, the green is pretty big - 45x45 yards.