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Adea Gafuri

@adeagafuri.bsky.social

43 followers 34 following 25 posts

Postdoctoral researcher at @UISweden @goteborgsuni alumni | democratization, foreign aid, Western Balkans, IOs, experiments

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Adea Gafuri @adeagafuri.bsky.social · Nov 27

🚨new pub 🚨
Does it matter to citizens where #foreignaid comes from? Survey experiment with citizens in #Serbia (N=2500) now on @SCID__journal :
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
I find that donors' regime and practices impact citizens' views of their local politicians and donors

Adea Gafuri @adeagafuri.bsky.social · Apr 17

#democracyassistance #democracyaid
#OECD-DAC
#USAID #democracy #civilsociety
@vdeminstitute.bsky.social

Adea Gafuri @adeagafuri.bsky.social · Apr 17

To conclude, our findings show a positive link between earmarked aid channelled through CSOs and improvements in civil society and democracy indices. While the effects are modest, the indicate that more significant investments are needed for substantial change.

Adea Gafuri @adeagafuri.bsky.social · Apr 17

Beyond strengthening civil society, we argue that aid channelled through CSOs is also linked to higher democracy levels.
CSOs educate and mobilize citizens and help hold leaders accountable. Our results show modest improvements in democracy levels.

Adea Gafuri @adeagafuri.bsky.social · Apr 17

We find that these associations to be slightly stronger in closed authoritarian regimes.This may be due to closed autocracies coming from lower levels of democracy which allow them to experience relatively larger increases in their democracy scores.

Adea Gafuri @adeagafuri.bsky.social · Apr 17

On average, a one USD per capita increase in democracy aid channelled through CSOs is associated with an increase in civil society robustness of 0.01 units on the Core Civil Society Index scale, ranging from 0 (low) to 1 (high).

Adea Gafuri @adeagafuri.bsky.social · Apr 17

We argue that earmarked democracy aid i.e.,targeted funding channelled through CSOs can strengthen CSOs capacity, is less prone to misallocation, and helps close information gaps.
We find a modest but positive impact of such aid on civil society.

Adea Gafuri @adeagafuri.bsky.social · Apr 17

Our analysis is the most comprehensive to date on earmarked funding via CSOs.
📊 Using data from 128 countries (2005–2021), we test:
a) Does earmarked aid via CSOs strengthen CSOs?
b) How does it work across regime types?
c) Does it improve democracy?

Adea Gafuri @adeagafuri.bsky.social · Apr 17

Aid might not make poor countries rich - but it can strengthen civil society and democracy
📢 In our new open-access study with Marike Blanken &
@FelixWiebrecht
we show how earmarked democracy aid via CSOs empowers CSOs and improves democracy.
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

From Aid to Empowerment: The Impact of Democracy Assistance on Civil Society

A growing body of research indicates that democracy aid improves levels of democracy in recipient countries. However, the precise mechanisms behind this relationship are understudied. Contributing ...

www.tandfonline.com

Adea Gafuri @adeagafuri.bsky.social · Apr 14

We learned a lot from the presented research papers running in two parallel workshop rooms; the networking and collaborative ideas suggest that this is the start of more things to come ✨

Adea Gafuri @adeagafuri.bsky.social · Apr 14

We were also honored to have Professor Paula Pickering who has 25 years of experience working in the region and came all the way from the US, serve as a keynote speaker. We were also delighted to have Aida Hadžialić mayor of Metropolitan Stockholm, welcome everyone.

Adea Gafuri @adeagafuri.bsky.social · Apr 14

We welcomed 20 distinguished scholars in Stockholm from all over the world, who focus on party politics, democratization, Europeanization, geopolitical influence, gender, and climate issues in the Western Balkans.

Adea Gafuri @adeagafuri.bsky.social · Apr 14

Last week @nicholasaylott.bsky.social Johanna Mannergren & I did something very cool!

We hosted the first workshop on 'Contemporary Politics in the Western Balkans, 10–11 April 2025.'
We welcomed 20 distinguished scholars who focus on the Western Balkans at
@uisweden.bsky.social

Adea Gafuri @adeagafuri.bsky.social · Jan 29

@uisweden.bsky.social

Adea Gafuri @adeagafuri.bsky.social · Jan 29

This can explain why protests escalate over projects linked to autocratic donors.
Citizens push against donors who they associate with the risk of corruption and lack of voice in decision-making.
🔗 Read the full article here
@SCID__journal: link.springer.com/article/10.1...

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12116-024-09443-1"

Adea Gafuri @adeagafuri.bsky.social · Jan 29

Citizens see local politicians as unresponsive, regardless of who they cooperate with (a common trend in the Western Balkans). However, they believe democratic donors (mainly the #EU) are more likely to address their demands, if there are mishaps related to projects.

Adea Gafuri @adeagafuri.bsky.social · Jan 29

My latest article in
@SCID__journal
using survey experiments with citizens in Serbia shows that citizens prefer the least donors who are autocratic (where citizens dont get to elect their own representatives) and that they prefer the most cooperation with transparent donors.

Adea Gafuri @adeagafuri.bsky.social · Jan 29

The latest #protests in #Serbia and the resignation of prime minister, over the failed Novi Sad train station renovation by Chinese firms confirm my findings in
@SCID__journal: Serbian citizens prefer democratic donors over autocratic ones, they see them as less corrupt & more responsive

Serbia's Prime Minister Resigns as Mass Protests Rock Country

Amid growing public discontent over the handling of the Novi Sad railway station tragedy, Milos Vucevic announced on Tuesday that he was stepping down as prime minister.

balkaninsight.com

Reposted by Adea Gafuri

Felix Wiebrecht @felixwiebrecht.bsky.social · Dec 12

🚨New Publication! 🚨

This is a special one for me because it’s in @chinaquarterly.bsky.social but also because it looks at the key question that motivated me to do a PhD in the first place!

What’s the point of having authoritarian institutions that by design cannot constrain? A short 🧵

The China Quarterly @chinaquarterly.bsky.social · Dec 12

New (OA) @felixwiebrecht.bsky.social analyses how government departments respond to suggestions from provincial People's Political Consultative Conferences, finding that inclusive institutions in #China can provide a forum for expertise to inform policy-making.
doi.org/10.1017/S030...

Expertise and Responsiveness in People's Political Consultative Conferences | The China Quarterly | Cambridge Core

Expertise and Responsiveness in People's Political Consultative Conferences

Reposted by Adea Gafuri

Demscore @demscore.bsky.social · Dec 19

📅 Save the Dates: #Demscore Conference 2025, June 9-10 in Gothenburg.
📢 Call for Papers and Panels open now, learn more at www.demscore.se/events/demsc...

@ucdp.bsky.social @vdeminstitute.bsky.social
@medem.bsky.social @digitalsocietyproject.org
@sampol.bsky.social @prioresearch.bsky.social

Reposted by Adea Gafuri

Gefjon Off @gefjonoff.bsky.social · Dec 19

‪Grateful for the opportunity to talk about potential divides between young men and women with
@mdressler.bsky.social at FEPS. Truly appreciate the thoughtful questions and time to elaborate on our argument.

Listen here: open.spotify.com/episode/4E2Z...

Adea Gafuri @adeagafuri.bsky.social · Dec 10

Congratulations!

Adea Gafuri @adeagafuri.bsky.social · Nov 27

I thank Agnes Cornell, Amy Alexander & Phil Roessler for their thorough feedback
during the early stages of the experiment. I also thank Monika Bauhr, Ann-Sofie Isaksson, Kristen Kao,
Ellen Lust, & Matthew Winters, @gefjonoff.bsky.social , @jacobgunderson.bsky.social for their valuable suggestions.

Adea Gafuri @adeagafuri.bsky.social · Nov 27

Citizens with authoritarian values often vote for radical right parties. In Serbia, an interesting finding is that voters of the far-right incumbent, known for its authoritarian tendencies, are less likely to oppose cooperation with authoritarian donors.

Adea Gafuri @adeagafuri.bsky.social · Nov 27

Citizens like the least 'authoritarian regimes' even in #Serbia’s context where authoritarian values have
been on the rise. They perceive authoritarian donors are the most likely to engage in corruption and be least responsive to their demands.

Adea Gafuri @adeagafuri.bsky.social · Nov 27

Citizens perceive that democratic donors are more likely to consider citizens' complaints. However, they do not believe that cooperation with democratic donors will improve local politicians' responsiveness toward them.