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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 9d

Lastly, Eric Adams’ (and Jim Walden’s) name will remain on the ballot.

Absentee and early mail ballots started going out in the mail over a week ago.

So Cuomo’s people will need to do some sort of public education campaign to NOT to vote for Adams for the low engagement voters.

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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 9d

So the question for them becomes — does my disdain of Cuomo outweigh my fear of a Mamdani mayoralty?

Or maybe I just like Sliwa and want to vote for him even knowing he has no path to victory?

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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 9d

But a lot of Rs simply don’t like Cuomo.

Despite some chicanery with the IDC, he signed a lot of progressive legislation when he was governor (gun control, gay marriage, eliminating most cash bail, etc).

And many Rs still resent his handling of COVID (vaccines, lockdowns, etc).

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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 9d

Sliwa is still very popular among Republicans, conservatives, Trump voters & Staten Islanders

Polls in the coming weeks will tell us if that support starts to collapse & shift toward Cuomo (i.e. if Sliwa voters start to think of this is a two-person race & want to stop Mamdani)

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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 9d

With Sliwa all but certain to stay in the race (he said he turned down seven-figure offers to drop out), Cuomo’s best strategy moving forward is to convince Sliwa voters that they are wasting their vote — and essentially helping Mamdani — if they vote for Sliwa instead of Cuomo.

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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 9d

But more impactful than movement in the polls is money.

Cuomo’s people expect tens of millions of dollars to flow to his campaign/super PACs in the home stretch from anti-Mamdani donors

But Adams frequently cited fundraising troubles, so it’s unclear if that’ll come to fruition

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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 9d

Here are the polls from September for the full field and the three-way field.

The ones that are highlighted tested both scenarios.

Sliwa exiting the race was always going to be more impactful than Adams leaving the race, but Sliwa isn’t going anywhere.

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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 9d

In the September polls that tested a full field & one with just Mamdani/Cuomo/Sliwa, here’s how Adams’ voters broke:

🟡 52% went to Cuomo
🔴 17% went to Sliwa
🔵 10% went to Mamdani
⚫️ 21% went to undecided

So Cuomo basically nets ~4 points, but he’s still down by ~15 points.

Phil Lewis @phillewis.bsky.social · 10d

NEW YORK (AP) — New York City Mayor Eric Adams ends his reelection campaign.

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Reposted by Adam Carlson

G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 13d

I’ve seen a lot of coverage over a poll saying Dems are “too focused” on climate change and LGBTQ issue. But voters say the Republican Party is not focused enough on jobs and affordability — issues much more predictive of voting — and far too much on immigration.

open.substack.com/pub/gelliott...

Are Democrats "talking too much" about left-wing issues?

The data mostly do not justify the conclusions people are drawing

open.substack.com

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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 13d

Very tough to run for third consecutive Democratic term in the statehouse, and Sherrill is not exactly a world beater of a candidate.

And to his credit, Ciattarelli has run a pretty disciplined campaign.

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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 13d

Ciattrelli hasn’t cracked 43% in an independent poll

He has a path, but he’ll have to scratch and claw his way to adding any extra percentage points on his way to 50%

It’s doable, but it would require a major fumble by Sherrill down the home stretch give who the undecideds are

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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 13d

Reasons why this Emerson poll is tied:
— Murphy’s approval rating is -10
— Ciattarelli leads by 26 points among independents

Reasons why Sherrill is still favored:
— 72% of undecided voters are women
— 62% of undecideds are Harris voters
— 18% of Black voters are undecided

New Jersey Monitor @newjerseymonitor.com · 13d

New poll finds dead heat in NJ governor’s race newjerseymonitor.com/briefs/new-p...

New poll finds dead heat in NJ governor's race • New Jersey Monitor

Rep. Mikie Sherrill and former Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli are in a statistical tie, according to an Emerson College Poll released Thursday.

newjerseymonitor.com

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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 13d

Thank you so much to @dwbeard.bsky.social, @davidnir.com & guest host @joesudbay.bsky.social for having me on!

Listen here:

Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/0Mtu...

Apple Podcasts: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...

Bluesky

y.bsky.social

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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 13d

I’ve been a huge fan of @thedownballot.bsky.social (and its previous iterations at Daily Kos Elections and as The Swing State Project) for nearly two decades.

So it was a huge honor to be interviewed on their podcast yesterday.

We talked polling philosophy, NYC, NJ, VA, Prop 50 & more.

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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 13d

@joesudbay.bsky.social asked me to post here more, so I’m gonna try to

Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 13d

If you’re looking for a reason why Mamdani might overperform his polling and break 50%

www.foxnews.com/politics/fox...

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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 13d

If you’re looking for a reason why Mamdani might overperform his polling and break 50%

www.foxnews.com/politics/fox...

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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · Aug 1

Ayyy that’s my poll

Jacob Kornbluh @jacobkornbluh.bsky.social · Jul 29

Also in Zenith Research/Public Progress Solutions poll:

Mamdani has 43% of the Jewish vote, including 67% among younger Jewish voters aged 18-44.

Cuomo at 26%, and 33% among Conservative/Orthodox Jews.

Adams at 15% with Jews, at 27% with Con/Ortho.

Mamdani has 21% among Ortho.

(Sample 152 LV)

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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · Jul 29

Stay tuned for the release of a brand new, first of its kind, fully independent NYC mayor general election poll from Zenith Research (me) and Public Progress Solutions (Amit Singh Bagga) this afternoon.

More ways to cut the data of this race than you’ve seen in any previous poll.

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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · Jul 8

P.S. Keep your eyes peeled for some public releases, hopefully coming over the next few weeks.

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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · Jul 8

So let's do things differently.

Let's challenge some assumptions.

Let's shake up some established norms.

Let's following the data wherever it leads.

Let's be transparent about our process and methodology.

And let's have some fun while we're doing it!

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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · Jul 8

My goal with Zenith is to build something that’s constantly evolving with the world around us, steers clear of DC groupthink & is unafraid of ruffling some feathers

If you’re interested working together or want to learn more about us, check us out:

zenith-research.com

Zenith Research

zenith-research.com

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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · Jul 8

Some personal news — I am beyond excited to be formally launching my own polling firm, Zenith Research!

After over a dozen years working in the industry, I wanted to build something on my own — with a fresh, independent, methodologically rigorous & radically transparent approach.

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Reposted by Adam Carlson

Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · May 5

Someone out there has the chance to make an excellent hire right now:

Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · May 5

Hi everyone — I was laid off from my job on Friday

If you know of any open opportunities in polling or market research (full-time or contracts/consulting), please let me know. I have 12 years of experience in the industry

If you don’t, please consider reposting/sharing

Thanks!

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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · May 5

www.linkedin.com/in/adamcarls...

Adam Carlson - Fishbone Advisors | LinkedIn

Strategic research and insights leader with 12 years of experience at the intersection of… · Experience: Fishbone Advisors · Education: The George Washington University · Location: Brooklyn · 500+ con...

www.linkedin.com

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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · May 5

Hi everyone — I was laid off from my job on Friday

If you know of any open opportunities in polling or market research (full-time or contracts/consulting), please let me know. I have 12 years of experience in the industry

If you don’t, please consider reposting/sharing

Thanks!

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