Africa Takes
@africatakes.bsky.social
Just an intelligence analyst looking for a space to air his opinions on developments in Africa without implicating his employer.
In terms of the community, quite large Tuareg and Fulani populations. That might indicate quite high levels of sympathy for autonomy and there have been reports of abuses against civilians which would likely enhance that. But it’s a more complicated picture with lots of inter-Tuareg competition
July 20, 2025 at 5:41 PM
In terms of the community, quite large Tuareg and Fulani populations. That might indicate quite high levels of sympathy for autonomy and there have been reports of abuses against civilians which would likely enhance that. But it’s a more complicated picture with lots of inter-Tuareg competition
Oh yes I see what you meant. Tactically you are correct, but for the junta is was quite an important propaganda piece, used to justify the break with France and the revocation of the Algiers accord.
July 20, 2025 at 5:37 PM
Oh yes I see what you meant. Tactically you are correct, but for the junta is was quite an important propaganda piece, used to justify the break with France and the revocation of the Algiers accord.
I think they ideally want the whole city. This was the capital for a prospective independent state of Azawad. In the long term, their movement needs the city back.
July 19, 2025 at 6:22 PM
I think they ideally want the whole city. This was the capital for a prospective independent state of Azawad. In the long term, their movement needs the city back.
Isn’t that what Lance is doing? The difference between a mental illness and a mental disorder, appears to be largely one of semantics.
July 8, 2025 at 11:39 AM
Isn’t that what Lance is doing? The difference between a mental illness and a mental disorder, appears to be largely one of semantics.
they will continue to essentially look the other way. To make statements, to make small symbolic displays of opposition. But essentially do little to nothing to help the DRC, which is being pushed into making concessions to their aggressor.
March 14, 2025 at 9:19 PM
they will continue to essentially look the other way. To make statements, to make small symbolic displays of opposition. But essentially do little to nothing to help the DRC, which is being pushed into making concessions to their aggressor.
sustainably and ethically sourced. To do anything else would be to acknowledge their role in a crime. That would be too inconvenient. And so, until the European Commission can be compelled to grow some backbone or to place human suffering above economic wellbeing,
March 14, 2025 at 9:19 PM
sustainably and ethically sourced. To do anything else would be to acknowledge their role in a crime. That would be too inconvenient. And so, until the European Commission can be compelled to grow some backbone or to place human suffering above economic wellbeing,
But in a world where access to minerals is becoming increasingly contested, and China looks set to dominate access to the resources necessary to power a Green energy revolution, the EU prefers to pretend. It prefers the lie that these minerals are
March 14, 2025 at 9:19 PM
But in a world where access to minerals is becoming increasingly contested, and China looks set to dominate access to the resources necessary to power a Green energy revolution, the EU prefers to pretend. It prefers the lie that these minerals are
The EU could put serious pressure on Rwanda, they could make the minerals deal conditional on Rwandan withdrawal, they could acknowledge that the minerals they would be purchasing would actually be coming from the DRC.
March 14, 2025 at 9:19 PM
The EU could put serious pressure on Rwanda, they could make the minerals deal conditional on Rwandan withdrawal, they could acknowledge that the minerals they would be purchasing would actually be coming from the DRC.
by ordinance from the UAE, limiting conflict to an insurgency in rural areas, similar to conditions in Oromia. Alternatively it could act as a catalyst for a wider conflict with Eritrea, raising the prospect of prolonged violence.
March 12, 2025 at 10:39 PM
by ordinance from the UAE, limiting conflict to an insurgency in rural areas, similar to conditions in Oromia. Alternatively it could act as a catalyst for a wider conflict with Eritrea, raising the prospect of prolonged violence.
Either way, the instability in Tigray is likely to build in the coming weeks, raising the risk of further armed conflict in Tigray. There is a possibility this will be highly localised, and Tigray forces will be unsupported and won’t be able to resist an Ethiopian army bolstered
March 12, 2025 at 10:39 PM
Either way, the instability in Tigray is likely to build in the coming weeks, raising the risk of further armed conflict in Tigray. There is a possibility this will be highly localised, and Tigray forces will be unsupported and won’t be able to resist an Ethiopian army bolstered
Abiy has stated he is determined to secure maritime access. With rapprochement with Somalia ongoing, the Somaliland deal is likely dead, Eritrea might be the only option left.
March 12, 2025 at 10:39 PM
Abiy has stated he is determined to secure maritime access. With rapprochement with Somalia ongoing, the Somaliland deal is likely dead, Eritrea might be the only option left.
Perhaps recent claims that Eritrea is stoking the instability (to which there is likely some truth) will form the basis of justification of greater hostility with Eritrea in the event of a resumption of fighting in Tigray.
March 12, 2025 at 10:39 PM
Perhaps recent claims that Eritrea is stoking the instability (to which there is likely some truth) will form the basis of justification of greater hostility with Eritrea in the event of a resumption of fighting in Tigray.
Perhaps, Addis feels that it’s better to force detractors to break the agreement, challenge it again, giving it the opportunity to take on a weakened enemy and then force it to accept poor agreements. This would possibly create conditions favourable to Amhara.
March 12, 2025 at 10:39 PM
Perhaps, Addis feels that it’s better to force detractors to break the agreement, challenge it again, giving it the opportunity to take on a weakened enemy and then force it to accept poor agreements. This would possibly create conditions favourable to Amhara.
The peace agreement is good for Addis, it’s important for its effort to re-engage with the international community and right now security forces are dealing with insurgencies in Oromia and Amhara. So why not deal with this challenge in Tigray sooner?
March 12, 2025 at 10:39 PM
The peace agreement is good for Addis, it’s important for its effort to re-engage with the international community and right now security forces are dealing with insurgencies in Oromia and Amhara. So why not deal with this challenge in Tigray sooner?
Much of the Tigray Defence Forces now seem to be coalescing around the Tigrayan faction hostile to Addis and are now actively removing TIA officials outside Mekele. Addis risks a Tigray increasingly united against it.
March 12, 2025 at 10:39 PM
Much of the Tigray Defence Forces now seem to be coalescing around the Tigrayan faction hostile to Addis and are now actively removing TIA officials outside Mekele. Addis risks a Tigray increasingly united against it.
Yes it is probably in the federal government’s interest to keep Tigray divided and weaken the TPLF, but the Tigray interim authority (TIA) is the faction that has been most willing to work with Addis Ababa and they are finding themselves increasingly isolated in Tigray.
March 12, 2025 at 10:39 PM
Yes it is probably in the federal government’s interest to keep Tigray divided and weaken the TPLF, but the Tigray interim authority (TIA) is the faction that has been most willing to work with Addis Ababa and they are finding themselves increasingly isolated in Tigray.
This is such a key window into the breakdown in morale and discipline following the fall of Bukavu. Fights with allies trying to acquire the arms they need to resist the M23. At this point it seems the only thing that might slow the M23 down is overstretch.
February 20, 2025 at 10:21 PM
This is such a key window into the breakdown in morale and discipline following the fall of Bukavu. Fights with allies trying to acquire the arms they need to resist the M23. At this point it seems the only thing that might slow the M23 down is overstretch.
expires the current allegations and rumours of corruption will transform into legal charges. So quietly agitating and mobilising for greater power might be too tempting to resist. However, if he is unsuccessful, the next time we see tanks in Harare, they won’t be for display.
February 20, 2025 at 9:32 PM
expires the current allegations and rumours of corruption will transform into legal charges. So quietly agitating and mobilising for greater power might be too tempting to resist. However, if he is unsuccessful, the next time we see tanks in Harare, they won’t be for display.
Chiwenga likely suspects that tanks in the streets of Harare will sufficiently evoke memories of Mugabe’s fall that Mnangagwa will get the picture about where power really lies. But will he? Mnangagwa still has allies and he will likely be concerned that when his term
February 20, 2025 at 9:32 PM
Chiwenga likely suspects that tanks in the streets of Harare will sufficiently evoke memories of Mugabe’s fall that Mnangagwa will get the picture about where power really lies. But will he? Mnangagwa still has allies and he will likely be concerned that when his term
It’s possible that this attempt to placate his critics has been interpreted as a recognition of his vulnerability, and so Chiwenga has used his influence in the military to demonstrate to Mnangagwa very clearly, the consequences of trying to extend his power again.
February 20, 2025 at 9:32 PM
It’s possible that this attempt to placate his critics has been interpreted as a recognition of his vulnerability, and so Chiwenga has used his influence in the military to demonstrate to Mnangagwa very clearly, the consequences of trying to extend his power again.
This resistance has been sufficient to force Mnangagwa to publicly state that he won’t extend his term. However there was little confidence he would commit to this promise and many suspected he would continue to covertly use his allies to push for an extension.
February 20, 2025 at 9:32 PM
This resistance has been sufficient to force Mnangagwa to publicly state that he won’t extend his term. However there was little confidence he would commit to this promise and many suspected he would continue to covertly use his allies to push for an extension.