ajwsmall.bsky.social
Andrew Small
@ajwsmall.bsky.social
2.1K followers 610 following 31 posts
Senior Fellow at GMF. Formerly: European Commission, ECFR. Posting on China / US / Europe Books, articles: andrewsmall.org
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Reposted by Andrew Small
byfordt.bsky.social
Byford Tsang @byfordt.bsky.social · Jul 24
Quick take on EU-China (or China-EU) climate joint statement:
We'll do more of the same and we'll commit to make some commitments later.

vs. last joint statement back in 2021 - in which China stated that it was going to 'strictly control coal consumption (it didn't)
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ajwsmall.bsky.social
Andrew Small @ajwsmall.bsky.social · Jul 24
EU readout on the summit in Beijing today; no surprises… see Finbarr’s thread for more
fbermingham.bsky.social
Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · Jul 24
ENDS - full readout here:

ec.europa.eu/commission/p...
25th EU-China summit - EU press release
The European Union (EU) and China held their 25th Summit in Beijing on 24 July 2025. The President of the European Council, António Costa, and the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der
ec.europa.eu
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Reposted by Andrew Small
fbermingham.bsky.social
Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · Jul 24
EU-China summit is underway in Beijing.

In this thread I will collate interesting points from remarks and readouts through the day.

First, Xi Jinping's opening remarks, as run by CCTV this morning

news.cctv.cn/2025/07/24/A...
news.cctv.cn
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Reposted by Andrew Small
fbermingham.bsky.social
Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · Jul 23
Looks like the EU and China have a deliverable for their summit.

Joint statement on climate is done, negotiations wrapped up overnight. Will go to ambassadors at Coreper II today for approval
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ajwsmall.bsky.social
Andrew Small @ajwsmall.bsky.social · Jul 21
I have a GMF piece up on the backstory behind this week's low-content EU-China summit. A "success" that won't feel like one: www.gmfus.org/news/just-sh...
Just Showing Up
www.gmfus.org
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Reposted by Andrew Small
gmfus.bsky.social
German Marshall Fund @gmfus.bsky.social · Jun 24
📈 THURSDAY: EU-China Trade Relations Ahead of the July Summit, a virtual discussion with GMF's ‪@noahbarkin.bsky.social‬, Gunnar Wiegand, @ajwsmall.bsky.social‬, Penny Naas and Eva Valle Lagares, Head of Unit, Far East, Directorate-General Trade, ‪@ec.europa.eu‬

🎟️ Register now:
EU-China Trade Relations Ahead of the July Summit
Heightened economic and geopolitical tensions mark the state of EU-China trade relations as a summit between their leaders approaches. How are the two parties navigating the global restructuring…
www.gmfus.org
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Reposted by Andrew Small
fbermingham.bsky.social
Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · Jun 9
New Chinese trade data out today for May may deepen anxiety over trade diversion in Europe.

China's exports to the US down 34.52%
China's exports to the EU up 12%
China's exports to Germany up 21.5%
China's exports to France up 24.1%
China's exports to Netherlands up 7.1%
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ajwsmall.bsky.social
Andrew Small @ajwsmall.bsky.social · Jun 9
Both had hoped to do this with the US…
sensehofstede.nl
Sense Hofstede @sensehofstede.nl · Jun 9
Japan and EU eye launch of ‘competitive alliance’ scheme to boost trade – Kyodo News: ‘Under the framework, Japan and the EU will work together to diversify supply chains for rare earth minerals’ ‘align subsidy conditions for environmental technology’ ‘promote reform of the World Trade Organization’
Japan, EU eye launch of "competitive alliance" scheme to boost trade
Japan and the European Union are preparing to launch an "alliance" framework to beef up their companies' competitiveness by promoting trade and economic security cooperation, diplomatic sour...
english.kyodonews.net
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Reposted by Andrew Small
joristeer.bsky.social
Joris Teer @joristeer.bsky.social · Jun 6
Onshoring / friend-shoring critical raw material value chains should be included in NATO's upcoming 5% target!

My call on European Ministers of Defence to break China's critical raw material chokehold ASAP.

@euiss.bsky.social

www.iss.europa.eu/publications...
European Ministers of Defence - Save Europe, invest in mining!
Critical materials are the backbone of modern defence. For Europe's rearmament to succeed, the EU defence ministers must break Beijing's chokehold on these essential resources.
www.iss.europa.eu
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Reposted by Andrew Small
noahbarkin.bsky.social
Noah Barkin @noahbarkin.bsky.social · May 14
Merz messages on China in Bundestag speech:
- China will remain "important partner" of Germany & Europe
- Germany to pursue strategic de-risking, reduce one-sided dependencies.
- Relations w/China increasingly defined by systemic rivalry.
- Growing ties between China & Russia of "great concern"
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Reposted by Andrew Small
fbermingham.bsky.social
Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · May 9
China's trade data for April came out this morning.

Have just had the chance to do some sums based on last April's numbers, and for Europe it is an absolute bloodbath.

EU exports to China are down by huge numbers, while China's exports to EU members keep surging

🧵
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ajwsmall.bsky.social
Andrew Small @ajwsmall.bsky.social · May 9
Xi’s visit to Moscow this week is a usefully-timed reminder to European policymakers of the hard ceiling on China-Europe relations in the coming years. My @gmfus.bsky.social colleagues put a neat little video together laying it out... More here: www.linkedin.com/posts/andrew...
gmfus.bsky.social
German Marshall Fund @gmfus.bsky.social · May 7
🇨🇳🇷🇺 President Xi is in Moscow this week, demonstrating his deepening ties with President Putin.

What are the security implications of Russia & China’s closer relationship, and what questions do European leaders face? GMF Senior Fellow @ajwsmall.bsky.social answers. www.youtube.com/shorts/hSqo1...
Putin and Xi's Deepening Ties
YouTube video by The German Marshall Fund of the United States
www.youtube.com
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ajwsmall.bsky.social
Andrew Small @ajwsmall.bsky.social · May 7
A few quick thoughts on how China is likely to deal with the current situation with India-Pakistan (since I am getting some questions...)
ajwsmall.bsky.social
Andrew Small @ajwsmall.bsky.social · May 7
Thanks for the nice mention, Patrick. Here’s a quick rundown of how things have evolved since the book was published. Basic equation is the same: China supports Pakistan with military kit, diplomatic shielding, does not provide significant assistance to Pakistan in conflict scenarios beyond that 1/9
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ajwsmall.bsky.social
Andrew Small @ajwsmall.bsky.social · May 7
China won't want a significant escalation (few do) but I suspect won’t mind an opportunity to test Chinese against Western weapons systems on India's side. I doubt Beijing will see the Indian strikes as excessively escalatory. A kind of re-run of 2019 would IMO be fine from China’s perspective 9/9
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ajwsmall.bsky.social
Andrew Small @ajwsmall.bsky.social · May 7
Further back in time, there was some coordination and complementarity between Chinese and US approaches (see Kargil, Twin Peaks, even Mumbai). But that hasn’t been the case since Uri - now China’s expectation is that US will provide forms of support to India, and it will do likewise for Pakistan
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ajwsmall.bsky.social
Andrew Small @ajwsmall.bsky.social · May 7
China will certainly tilt in Pakistan’s direction though - I expect providing intelligence support and diplomatic support (as we’ve already seen at the UN). This isn’t just about China-Pak relations, but demonstration effect to others that they “look after their friends” 7/9
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ajwsmall.bsky.social
Andrew Small @ajwsmall.bsky.social · May 7
China won’t want to be seen to be too embroiled in Pak response (beyond the unavoidable fact that they will be using Chinese weapons): it's trying to stabilize ties with India now (as with many others) to consolidate China's position to face the US so will tread more delicately than a year or so ago
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ajwsmall.bsky.social
Andrew Small @ajwsmall.bsky.social · May 7
That doesn’t change the fundamental role that Pakistan plays for China as counterbalance / second front pressure on India. And Beijing has never minded a bit of “re-hyphenation” of India with Pakistan- same will hold now at a moment characterized by huge international economic opportunity for India
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ajwsmall.bsky.social
Andrew Small @ajwsmall.bsky.social · May 7
China-Pak ties are far worse than a decade ago. Beijing’s disappointment with CPEC, concerns about failure to protect Chinese nationals, broader unhappiness with Pak internal security landscape, economic & political situation, put relations on a lower ebb (though they don’t dramatize that in public)
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ajwsmall.bsky.social
Andrew Small @ajwsmall.bsky.social · May 7
CPEC did add a new factor: in the early years, as investments surged, China put extra stress on on Pak maintaining stability with India to ensure their economic interests weren’t harmed. But CPEC has stalled and the importance of the economic relationship has dipped again 3/9
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ajwsmall.bsky.social
Andrew Small @ajwsmall.bsky.social · May 7
But: the Chinese kit is much better, and the balance of the weapons systems that Pakistan uses is now far more China-centric (also a byproduct of developments in US-Pak & US-India ties). Old version was low-end plus nukes / delivery systems; new version includes advanced platforms 2/9
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ajwsmall.bsky.social
Andrew Small @ajwsmall.bsky.social · May 7
Thanks for the nice mention, Patrick. Here’s a quick rundown of how things have evolved since the book was published. Basic equation is the same: China supports Pakistan with military kit, diplomatic shielding, does not provide significant assistance to Pakistan in conflict scenarios beyond that 1/9
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Reposted by Andrew Small
fbermingham.bsky.social
Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · May 2
Breaking: Ireland's data protection watchdog, acting for the EU, fined TikTok a huge 530 million euro for failing to ensure European users' personal data is shielded from access by Chinese authorities

TikTok admitted hosting European data in China

www.barrons.com/news/tiktok-...
TikTok Fined 530 Mn Euros In EU Over China Data Transfer
Ireland's data protection watchdog, acting on behalf of the EU, fined TikTok a massive 530 million euros ($600 million) Friday for failing to ensure European users' personal data is shielded from acce...
www.barrons.com
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Reposted by Andrew Small
fbermingham.bsky.social
Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · Apr 24
EU spokesperson tells me: no plans to drop sanctions on China just because Beijing s lifting sanctions on some MEPs

"The EU has not observed changes in the human rights situation in China/Xinjiang. Therefore, the Council maintains the China/Xinjiang - related designations"
fbermingham.bsky.social
Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · Apr 24
In case you missed it last night:

China is dropping sanctions on EU lawmakers, in place since 2021, as it looks to capitalise from the US' hostile turn towards Europe

www.scmp.com/news/china/d...
European Parliament in ‘final stage’ talks with China to drop lawmaker sanctions
‘It has always been the EP’s intention to have sanctions lifted and resume relations with China,’ spokesperson says.
www.scmp.com
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Reposted by Andrew Small
melissakchan.bsky.social
Melissa Chan @melissakchan.bsky.social · Apr 18
🎙️ Can Germany cope with Xi and Trump at the same time? That was the question on Berlin Briefing. Thank you @richardwalker.bsky.social for having me on the podcast, and good to always hear what @ajwsmall.bsky.social of @gmfus.bsky.social has to say! 🔗 WATCH/LISTEN: www.dw.com/en/dwcom-ber...
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