albertward.bsky.social
@albertward.bsky.social
Senior Fellow @ More in Common, PhD political science from Oxford, views my own (+new on here)
Both are drawing on deprivation, but they’re mobilising different social coalitions, and responding to different material pressures (you can also see this when you model lots of other different kinds of deprivation)
February 11, 2026 at 1:52 PM
Both are drawing on deprivation, but they’re mobilising different social coalitions, and responding to different material pressures (you can also see this when you model lots of other different kinds of deprivation)
Both the Greens and Reform tend to poll better in more deprived areas, but the similarities largely stop there. You can see this using data from @moreincommonuk.bsky.social's latest MRP
February 11, 2026 at 1:52 PM
Both the Greens and Reform tend to poll better in more deprived areas, but the similarities largely stop there. You can see this using data from @moreincommonuk.bsky.social's latest MRP
And we forget that this is also a wider phenomenon (esp in Europe) and not constrained to Britain
February 10, 2026 at 10:50 AM
And we forget that this is also a wider phenomenon (esp in Europe) and not constrained to Britain
British voters have never been more mistrustful of their leaders, and unless you're exceptionally lucky or an exceptional political talent then PMs will have to struggle against this
February 10, 2026 at 10:50 AM
British voters have never been more mistrustful of their leaders, and unless you're exceptionally lucky or an exceptional political talent then PMs will have to struggle against this
Yes Keir Starmer is the most unpopular PM in history and yes, this is partly a reflection of the man, but people forget its also a sign of the times
February 10, 2026 at 10:50 AM
Yes Keir Starmer is the most unpopular PM in history and yes, this is partly a reflection of the man, but people forget its also a sign of the times
The largest polling deficit that a government came back to win was in 1992, when the Tories came from over 25 points behind to win (6/)
February 3, 2026 at 11:10 AM
The largest polling deficit that a government came back to win was in 1992, when the Tories came from over 25 points behind to win (6/)
2019 you might say is another case of this, but really the clusterf*ck around june/july 2019 is hard to draw lessons from, mostly because of Brexit (4/)
February 3, 2026 at 11:10 AM
2019 you might say is another case of this, but really the clusterf*ck around june/july 2019 is hard to draw lessons from, mostly because of Brexit (4/)
In most recent cases when a government came from behind to win (e.g. 2005, 2015) they only had to overcome a polling deficit of only a few percentage points (this is 2015) (3/)
February 3, 2026 at 11:10 AM
In most recent cases when a government came from behind to win (e.g. 2005, 2015) they only had to overcome a polling deficit of only a few percentage points (this is 2015) (3/)
A reminder that not all modern Western leaders are doomed to eternal unpopularity (at least when voters believe their country is existentially threatened + you have Trump as your foil) from @angusreidinstitute.bsky.social
January 27, 2026 at 11:40 AM
A reminder that not all modern Western leaders are doomed to eternal unpopularity (at least when voters believe their country is existentially threatened + you have Trump as your foil) from @angusreidinstitute.bsky.social
He's not stupid - he knows that his popularity is partly (mostly?) just as a foil for starmer/this gov't; so why light it on fire (and lose an election perhaps) by taking the reins now
January 26, 2026 at 10:49 AM
He's not stupid - he knows that his popularity is partly (mostly?) just as a foil for starmer/this gov't; so why light it on fire (and lose an election perhaps) by taking the reins now
Although weaker support for general tax increases to fund specific things (even the nhs) (2)
January 21, 2026 at 10:14 AM
Although weaker support for general tax increases to fund specific things (even the nhs) (2)
Lots of evidence that there is big support for higher rates of tax at the top end (1)
January 21, 2026 at 10:14 AM
Lots of evidence that there is big support for higher rates of tax at the top end (1)
And that the UK is much like other European countries in this (although again, among the worst)
January 20, 2026 at 10:59 AM
And that the UK is much like other European countries in this (although again, among the worst)
Daily reminder that people are generally sceptical of all their political leaders (although Starmer is the worst of the pack)
January 20, 2026 at 10:59 AM
Daily reminder that people are generally sceptical of all their political leaders (although Starmer is the worst of the pack)
Canadians under age 30 are now much more conservative than those over 60... There is huge anger at the unfairness of the intergenerational deal (older voters getting a larger share of the pie than younger voters) and at rising housing costs, especially in Canada
January 19, 2026 at 10:42 AM
Canadians under age 30 are now much more conservative than those over 60... There is huge anger at the unfairness of the intergenerational deal (older voters getting a larger share of the pie than younger voters) and at rising housing costs, especially in Canada
But the gap between these realities is greatest among young men; there is no suggestion that they will accept the new normal
January 16, 2026 at 5:14 PM
But the gap between these realities is greatest among young men; there is no suggestion that they will accept the new normal
Hard to understand the cultural backlash from some young men against women without seeing how they see it: for them, women (and the women's movement) have totally moved away from their perceived normality
January 16, 2026 at 5:14 PM
Hard to understand the cultural backlash from some young men against women without seeing how they see it: for them, women (and the women's movement) have totally moved away from their perceived normality
Flipside of perspectives on US imperialism: some / many latin americans really want it (same for 1989 invasion of Panama - 92pc of panamanians were in favour) from @atlasintel.bsky.social
January 16, 2026 at 3:07 PM
Flipside of perspectives on US imperialism: some / many latin americans really want it (same for 1989 invasion of Panama - 92pc of panamanians were in favour) from @atlasintel.bsky.social