alex hayes
@alexpghayes.com
postdoc @ stanford econ + incoming assistant prof @ oregon state statistics. networks, causal inference, contagion, measurement error, #rstats. he/him
https://www.alexpghayes.com
https://www.alexpghayes.com
hmmm something like E[max coreness | author]? napkin sketches suggest this is ~scaled max degree correction parameter of author in DC-SBMs
January 29, 2026 at 7:49 PM
hmmm something like E[max coreness | author]? napkin sketches suggest this is ~scaled max degree correction parameter of author in DC-SBMs
can you say more about how you're running this? i managed to connect claude code to this mcp server but i'm much more interested in getting wolfram connected to a reasoning model
January 29, 2026 at 12:13 AM
can you say more about how you're running this? i managed to connect claude code to this mcp server but i'm much more interested in getting wolfram connected to a reasoning model
can you share any references about these more effective strategies? i'm interested in reading more!
January 29, 2026 at 12:08 AM
can you share any references about these more effective strategies? i'm interested in reading more!
{broom} has a lot of early tidyverse baggage! It's great that other packages have smoothed things out!
January 23, 2026 at 7:38 AM
{broom} has a lot of early tidyverse baggage! It's great that other packages have smoothed things out!
Also it's not simple! I think cognitive aspects of learning the new semi-parametric methods is a fairly serious constraint for applied use
January 1, 2026 at 7:06 PM
Also it's not simple! I think cognitive aspects of learning the new semi-parametric methods is a fairly serious constraint for applied use
Yeah I thought epi used sequential G things? Also, I'm not sure I think of front door as all that morally different from IV
January 1, 2026 at 7:04 PM
Yeah I thought epi used sequential G things? Also, I'm not sure I think of front door as all that morally different from IV
You get a free license through UW
December 31, 2025 at 6:15 PM
You get a free license through UW
@karlrohe.bsky.social both this and the mathematica mcp bit higher up the thread
December 31, 2025 at 5:43 AM
@karlrohe.bsky.social both this and the mathematica mcp bit higher up the thread
I've pulled out of several projects but far before any manuscript writing began
December 23, 2025 at 5:36 AM
I've pulled out of several projects but far before any manuscript writing began
I fairly agnostic about whether or not service is a good thing; think there are many reasonable choices. I'm a lot more interested in how statisticians talk about that choice, and other disciplines respond. The choice has consequences, whatever it is
December 16, 2025 at 12:02 AM
I fairly agnostic about whether or not service is a good thing; think there are many reasonable choices. I'm a lot more interested in how statisticians talk about that choice, and other disciplines respond. The choice has consequences, whatever it is
Ah I must have been thinking of www.degruyterbrill.com/document/doi... without recalling the paper
AUC-Maximizing Ensembles through Metalearning
Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) is often used to measure the performance of an estimator in binary classification problems. An AUC-maximizing classifier can have significant advantages in cases where r...
www.degruyterbrill.com
December 3, 2025 at 2:57 AM
Ah I must have been thinking of www.degruyterbrill.com/document/doi... without recalling the paper
I wonder if there's a way to develop a targeted estimator for ranking observations by P(Y=1|X) via the TMLE machinery. @sherrirose.bsky.social do you know of any work like this?
December 3, 2025 at 2:10 AM
I wonder if there's a way to develop a targeted estimator for ranking observations by P(Y=1|X) via the TMLE machinery. @sherrirose.bsky.social do you know of any work like this?
I suppose in neural net land there's also directly minimizing the (smoothed) AUCROC, but that's less generic since you can't always modify your loss function
December 3, 2025 at 1:56 AM
I suppose in neural net land there's also directly minimizing the (smoothed) AUCROC, but that's less generic since you can't always modify your loss function
I've been seeing his name around the R community for years, and then just the other day I had an issue with {ivreg} and he very kindly helped me out. I'm saddened to learn of his passing.
December 3, 2025 at 1:54 AM
I've been seeing his name around the R community for years, and then just the other day I had an issue with {ivreg} and he very kindly helped me out. I'm saddened to learn of his passing.
If you were going to handle a ranking problem, what kinds of tools would you reach for? Under/over-sampling or something else?
December 3, 2025 at 1:45 AM
If you were going to handle a ranking problem, what kinds of tools would you reach for? Under/over-sampling or something else?
My impression from brief stinks in industry was that folks primarily up/down-sampled because they wanted a system good at ordering samples by P(Y=1|X), and that beyond ranking having a calibrated classifier didn't matter much
December 3, 2025 at 1:45 AM
My impression from brief stinks in industry was that folks primarily up/down-sampled because they wanted a system good at ordering samples by P(Y=1|X), and that beyond ranking having a calibrated classifier didn't matter much
The LW shade made me cackle
November 29, 2025 at 9:51 PM
The LW shade made me cackle
You might also enjoy www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
Gerlach, Martin, Tiago P. Peixoto, and Eduardo G. Altmann. “A Network Approach to Topic Models.” Science Advances 4, no. 7 (2018): 1–11. doi.org/10.1126/scia....
Gerlach, Martin, Tiago P. Peixoto, and Eduardo G. Altmann. “A Network Approach to Topic Models.” Science Advances 4, no. 7 (2018): 1–11. doi.org/10.1126/scia....
A network approach to topic models
A new approach to topic models finds topics through community detection in word-document networks.
www.science.org
November 23, 2025 at 1:38 AM
You might also enjoy www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
Gerlach, Martin, Tiago P. Peixoto, and Eduardo G. Altmann. “A Network Approach to Topic Models.” Science Advances 4, no. 7 (2018): 1–11. doi.org/10.1126/scia....
Gerlach, Martin, Tiago P. Peixoto, and Eduardo G. Altmann. “A Network Approach to Topic Models.” Science Advances 4, no. 7 (2018): 1–11. doi.org/10.1126/scia....
Even if you don't find the main figure concerning, do you find the contrast with pre-registered RCT z-scores concerning? It's hard to imagine a world in which this contrast is benign
November 15, 2025 at 11:58 PM
Even if you don't find the main figure concerning, do you find the contrast with pre-registered RCT z-scores concerning? It's hard to imagine a world in which this contrast is benign