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Alicia Garcia Herrero 艾西亞 @aligarciaherrero.bsky.social · 17h

Basically, while the tone towards China may be worse, the actions might not be. And the problem they have is that the US is not willing to do more on China. So it’s going to be very hard for Takaichi to get the US on the Japanese side on that front.

Alicia Garcia Herrero 艾西亞 @aligarciaherrero.bsky.social · 17h

Takaichi’s nationalist stance would also lead to increased military spending, mainly benefiting the US, though foreign policy towards China might be moderated by the coalition with the pacifist Komeito party.

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Alicia Garcia Herrero 艾西亞 @aligarciaherrero.bsky.social · 17h

There is a risk that the BOJ does not hike again, but because her policies are so expansionary and inflationary, there might be a hike in December.

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Alicia Garcia Herrero 艾西亞 @aligarciaherrero.bsky.social · 17h

You can already see that there’s going to be an additional increase in #Japanese government bond yields, because people know there will be more supply and a weaker #yen. I think that’s what’s going to happen: a bigger fiscal deficit and the delay in the #BOJ hike to December.

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Alicia Garcia Herrero 艾西亞 @aligarciaherrero.bsky.social · 17h

My views for @scmpnews.bsky.social: “ #Takaichi’s commitment to fiscal expansion and her reluctance for further rate hikes could lead to “problematic” outcomes.“

www.scmp.com/economy/glob...

‘Mixed bag’: how Japan’s PM-in-waiting may fuel growth, defence – and debt

After the ruling Liberal Democratic Party elects new leader, economists assess what lies ahead.

www.scmp.com

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Alicia Garcia Herrero 艾西亞 @aligarciaherrero.bsky.social · 3d

Some thoughts for @financialtimes.com: "The scheme will probably target a 'more reduced but very talented pool' ".

www.ft.com/content/01a0...

China’s visa scheme for global tech workers draws backlash at home

K-visas designed to attract overseas Chinese and applicants from global south come amid weak jobs market

www.ft.com

Alicia Garcia Herrero 艾西亞 @aligarciaherrero.bsky.social · 5d

My paper for journal Financial and Economic Review: "How Close is #China’s Medium-Term Outlook to That of #Japan?"
hitelintezetiszemle.mnb.hu/sw/static/fi...

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Alicia Garcia Herrero 艾西亞 @aligarciaherrero.bsky.social · 6d

Mi entrevista con @Capital Radio: #China entra en una desaceleración "sana": "No iba a ningún lado su exceso de producción".

www.youtube.com/watch?v=TGGe...

China entra en una desaceleración "sana": "No iba a ningún lado su exceso de producción"

YouTube video by Capital Radio

www.youtube.com

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Alicia Garcia Herrero 艾西亞 @aligarciaherrero.bsky.social · 9d

Views for SCMP: "China might also be increasing its holdings of the euro–given a rise in exports to Europe in recent months – as well as other currencies such as the British pound and Swiss franc, which could be contributing to the rise in its foreign exchange reserves."
www.scmp.com/economy/glob...

As China keeps cutting US Treasury holdings, where are its investments going?

With China’s holdings at their lowest since 2009, analysts said the country’s central bank could be turning to European assets and gold.

www.scmp.com

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Alicia Garcia Herrero 艾西亞 @aligarciaherrero.bsky.social · 9d

Do join us if interested!
#ForoLaToja2025
#ForoLaToja
#VinculoAtlantico

www.linkedin.com/posts/forola...

#forolatoja2025 #forolatoja #vinculoatlantico | Foro La Toja

📌 ¿Cómo ha cambiado el contexto económico tras el retorno de Trump a la Casa Blanca? A un mes de cumplirse el primer aniversario del regreso del presidente estadounidense a la Casa Blanca, la mesa "L...

www.linkedin.com

Alicia Garcia Herrero 艾西亞 @aligarciaherrero.bsky.social · 9d

"It is the technology embedded in the industrial products, in the industrial capacity … that makes China kind of impossible to avoid. Everything you buy has a Chinese component in it.”

Alicia Garcia Herrero 艾西亞 @aligarciaherrero.bsky.social · 9d

Views for @scmpnews.bsky.social: “The big issue for the #EU was its reliance on #China’s highly developed industrial capacity – rather than the #technology itself. "
www.scmp.com/news/china/d...

50 years on, has China left Europe behind in the race for a hi-tech future?

Chinese firms have caught up with and in some cases overtaken their European rivals, putting the EU on the defensive.

www.scmp.com

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Reposted by Alicia Garcia Herrero 艾西亞

Bruegel @bruegel.org · 13d

🌏 China can decarbonise the world – but even that won’t fix its overcapacity problem

🏭 What actions can China take to overcome its overcapacity problem and pivot from manufacturing to infrastructure?

🖊️ By @aligarciaherrero.bsky.social and Haoxin Mu
🔗 Read the paper here: buff.ly/fkVx5Bd

China can decarbonise the world – but even that won’t fix its overcapacity problem

China is on track to meet global green-tech demand but needs to pivot from manufacturing to infrastructure

www.bruegel.org

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Alicia Garcia Herrero 艾西亞 @aligarciaherrero.bsky.social · 16d

Mi #Tribuna para @elpais sobre la sombra de #Putin detrás de la decisión que ha tomado #China para cambiar el orden global: la de confrontación/fuerza en vez de la del multilateralismo puesto que, total, está muerto. Solo en la #UE no nos lo acabamos de creer.. elpais.com/opinion/2025...

La sombra de Putin tras el nuevo orden chino

El desafío del presidente ruso a Occidente, sin aparentes consecuencias negativas, anima a Xi Jinping a endurecer su discurso

elpais.com

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Alicia Garcia Herrero 艾西亞 @aligarciaherrero.bsky.social · 16d

Here are my thoughts for Bloomberg #DayBreak today on #Trump-#Xi's upcoming encounter at the #APEC meeting. also
on the #BoJ's struggle to normalize monetary policy and the # PBoC's snail-paced rate cut, trying to protect. Chinese banks' margin.

Watch from 16'.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=lHa5...

Markets Weigh Trump-Xi Call, H1-B Visa Fee Hike | Bloomberg: The Asia Trade, 9/22/25

YouTube video by Bloomberg Television

www.youtube.com

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Alicia Garcia Herrero 艾西亞 @aligarciaherrero.bsky.social · 19d

The ideas I shared with @yahoofinance.com

#Trump is desperate for good news, which is why he is calling #Xi. The lowest-hanging fruit is to announce an in-person meeting (#Apec /#Beijing), which Trump is justifying with a phirric victory on #Tiktok!
uk.finance.yahoo.com/video/trump-...

Trump-Xi call: What investors are watching for

After the TikTok framework, can the US and China find more common ground in their bilateral trade relationship? Alicia Garcia Herrero is the Chief economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis. She joins Mark...

uk.finance.yahoo.com

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Alicia Garcia Herrero 艾西亞 @aligarciaherrero.bsky.social · 19d

- as well as other currencies such as the British pound and Swiss franc, which could be contribution to the rise in its foreign exchange reserves."

www.scmp.com/economy/glob...

As China keeps cutting US Treasury holdings, where are its investments going?

With China’s holdings at their lowest since 2009, analysts said the country’s central bank could be turning to European assets and gold.

www.scmp.com

Alicia Garcia Herrero 艾西亞 @aligarciaherrero.bsky.social · 19d

Views for @scmpnews.bsky.social on the future of #European #bonds:"China might also be increasing its holdings of the euro - given a rise in exports to Europe in recent months

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Alicia Garcia Herrero 艾西亞 @aligarciaherrero.bsky.social · 20d

Views for @lemonde.fr : "One-third of exports go to the US, compared to only 15% in 2021, making #Taiwan particularly vulnerable to fluctuations in #US policy."

www.lemonde.fr/en/opinion/a...

'Want to know how the global tech industry is doing? Follow Taiwan's GDP'

COLUMN. Electronic chips produced by Taiwan's tech giants, including Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) and Foxconn, are its most powerful weapon against a potential invasion by China, ...

www.lemonde.fr

Alicia Garcia Herrero 艾西亞 @aligarciaherrero.bsky.social · 21d

#BoJ preview: Groping through high global uncertainty deserves cautious approach to hike
aliciagarciaherrero.substack.com/p/boj-previe...

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Reposted by Alicia Garcia Herrero 艾西亞

Bruegel @bruegel.org · 21d

📊 The September update of the #China Economic Database is out now!

🪙 NEW: analysis of China’s fiscal and monetary stimulus policies.

🔗 buff.ly/hLeKNeu
🖋️ @aligarciaherrero.bsky.social, Michal Krystyanczuk, Robin Schindowski, Théo Storella and Jianwei Xu
#EconSky

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Alicia Garcia Herrero 艾西亞 @aligarciaherrero.bsky.social · 22d

Such deals reflect a pragmatic shift in U.S.– #China economic relations, where targeted compromises may pave the way for continued dialogue amid geopolitical tensions.

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Alicia Garcia Herrero 艾西亞 @aligarciaherrero.bsky.social · 22d

While the agreement allows #TikTok to remain operational in the #U.S. under U.S.-controlled ownership, it as part of a larger strategic negotiation encompassing tariffs, tech policy, and financial cooperation.

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Alicia Garcia Herrero 艾西亞 @aligarciaherrero.bsky.social · 22d

Views for @reuters.com: The broader implications for economic diplomacy between the two powers.

www.reuters.com/world/china/...

US, China reach framework deal on TikTok; Trump and Xi to speak on Friday

The United States and China reached a framework agreement to switch short-video app TikTok to U.S.-controlled ownership that will be confirmed in a call between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday, U.S. officials said.

www.reuters.com

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Alicia Garcia Herrero 艾西亞 @aligarciaherrero.bsky.social · 22d

China’s #Corporate Squeeze: What Falling Markup Reveals About Economic #Involution
aliciagarciaherrero.substack.com/p/chinas-cor...

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