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Survivability, Counterforce Targeting, and Nuclear Use

Syed Ali Zia Jaffery @alizia1992.bsky.social · Jul 28

My latest Substrack sheds some light on the disadvantages of counterforce targeting.

open.substack.com/pub/alizia19...

I recently read Dr.

Elusive Stability | Syed Ali Zia Jaffery | Substack

Syed Ali Zia Jaffery @alizia1992.bsky.social · Jul 27

Subscribe to my Substack, Elusive Stability, in which I share my takes on a bevy of strategic, security, and foreign policy issues. Launched last week, Elusive Stability has released 5 posts on some interesting topics.

open.substack.com/pub/alizia19...

Elusive Stability is a platform dedicated to identifying, discussing, and critiquing the sources of strategic subversion, especially through Pakistan's vantage point. Come here to think deeply, questi...

InFocus With Ejaz Haider EP71: Deterrence in the New Nuclear Age

Syed Ali Zia Jaffery @alizia1992.bsky.social · Jul 25

Out Now! In the latest episode of InFocus With Ejaz Haider at @CSSPR_UOL , Ejaz Haider hosted @nktpnd.bsky.social to discuss the May crisis between India and Pakistan, which set a number of dangerous precedents and thresholds.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=il_G...

The Enemy Gets a Vote: Robert McNamara and the Cuban Missile Crisis

www.youtube.com

Syed Ali Zia Jaffery @alizia1992.bsky.social · Jul 24

While the Dovals, Shahs, and Singhs help Modi to unsuccessfully deny Pakistan's its agency, John F. Kennedy had the sage Bob McNamara by his side!

My latest Substack looks at how McNamara convinced Kennedy to empathize with the Soviet Union.

open.substack.com/pub/alizia19...

Over the past decade, the Narendra Modi-led Indian government has, both in peacetime and crises, tried to deny Pakistan's agency.

Reflections on the Third Nuclear Age

Syed Ali Zia Jaffery @alizia1992.bsky.social · Jul 22

My latest Substrack delves into the Third Nuclear Age.
open.substack.com/pub/alizia19...

Recently, I hosted Dr.

Time for Washington to Win Tehran’s Trust

Syed Ali Zia Jaffery @alizia1992.bsky.social · Jul 21

My latest Substack on why the onus is on Washington to win Tehran’s trust.

"An unwillingness on the part of the U.S. to win Iran's trust will be bad news. It will further subvert diplomacy, leaving Iran on its own and unaccountable."

open.substack.com/pub/alizia19...

Last month, Iran was brazenly attacked by two nuclear-armed countries in Israel and the U.S.

CSSPR Webinar Series: Ali Zia in Conversation with Dr. Ludovica Castelli

Reposted by Syed Ali Zia Jaffery

Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · Jul 21

Just launched: Elusive Stability by @alizia1992.bsky.social. If you care about where South Asian nuclear and strategic debates are headed, this Substack will shape how we think about tomorrow’s crises today.

Syed Ali Zia Jaffery @alizia1992.bsky.social · Jul 20

I am happy to launch my Substack, Elusive Stability. Subscribe, engage, and take the debate forward.

open.substack.com/pub/alizia1992…

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Syed Ali Zia Jaffery @alizia1992.bsky.social · Jul 20

I am happy to launch my Substack, Elusive Stability. Subscribe, engage, and take the debate forward.

open.substack.com/pub/alizia1992…

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Syed Ali Zia Jaffery @alizia1992.bsky.social · Jul 16

Enjoyed speaking with @ludovicacast.bsky.social on her excellent co-authored book, The Global Third Nuclear Age. youtu.be/i2QFk0atuIg?...

https://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/australi…

Syed Ali Zia Jaffery @alizia1992.bsky.social · Jul 11

In my latest article for Australian Outlook, I argue that the U.S. must win Iran's trust if it wants to reach a new nuclear agreement. It should renounce regime change while dropping its zero-enrichment demand. www.internationalaffairs.org.au/australi…

Syed Ali Zia Jaffery @alizia1992.bsky.social · Jul 6

@ludovicacast.bsky.social

Syed Ali Zia Jaffery @alizia1992.bsky.social · Jul 6

In the next episode of the Centre for Security, Strategy and Policy Research (CSSPR) Webinar Series, I look forward to hosting Ludovica Castelli , PhD for a conversation on her excellent co-authored book, "The Global Third Nuclear Age. The book can be read here: lnkd.in/g-gdG25P

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Syed Ali Zia Jaffery @alizia1992.bsky.social · Jun 27

It is India's unsafeguarded facilities and fissile materials that the world must worry about. I discussed all this in my recent @CSSPR_UOL conversation with @mansoorahmed.bsky.social youtu.be/QxZ_vYvpLFA?...

CSSPR Webinar Series: Ali Zia in Conversation With Dr. Mansoor Ahmed

CSSPR Webinar Series: Ali Zia in Conversation With Dr. Mansoor Ahmed

Syed Ali Zia Jaffery @alizia1992.bsky.social · Jun 24

I hosted Dr. @mansoorahmed.bsky.social for a discussion on the recent Indo-Pak crisis, India"s evolving strategic posture, and conventional and nuclear deterrence dynamics. Given the situation in the Middle East, we also delved into Iran’s nuclear program.

youtu.be/QxZ_vYvpLFA?...

Syed Ali Zia Jaffery @alizia1992.bsky.social · Jun 23

President Trump is not the only one who has bypassed the Congress while employing force. According to a Congressional Research Service report, from 1789 until 2020, approximately 10% of U.S. military engagements abroad were subjected to congressional approval or
authorization.

InFocus With Ejaz Haider EP69: Will Trump Enter the War?

Syed Ali Zia Jaffery @alizia1992.bsky.social · Jun 20

What to make of the IAEA's response to Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities? How compliant has Iran been with the NPT? Ejaz Haider hosted Dr. Tariq Rauf.

youtu.be/vt5lojoSGls?...

Fast Wars, Steady Thresholds: Why South Asia’s Nuclear Restraint Persists in a Compressed Battlespace

Syed Ali Zia Jaffery @alizia1992.bsky.social · Jun 14

Fighting, at the end of the day, is a tactical action in service of politico-strategic objectives. Israel is unlikely to achieve any of its overarching ones.

Syed Ali Zia Jaffery @alizia1992.bsky.social · Jun 13

Israel has established complete air superiority over Iran, and that is quite telling. Iran was far too reliant on its indirect, proxy-centered strategy. Since the Axis has fallen, Iran has been in doldrums.

Syed Ali Zia Jaffery @alizia1992.bsky.social · Jun 13

There is enough evidence to suggest that nuclear weapons are considered critical to regime survival. The ongoing Israeli operation and statements from U.S. officials are likely to be construed as an existential threat.

Syed Ali Zia Jaffery @alizia1992.bsky.social · Jun 13

This is an excellent piece by @rabsaa.bsky.social for TheWire.in ,explaining how nuclear weapons continue to play a stabilizing role in South Asia. She rightly argues that the next crisis will start from a higher baseline. Worth your while.

thewire.in/security/sou...

Applying Herman Kahn’s escalation ladder to the May 2025 events between India and Pakistan demonstrates that the conflict largely occupied the middle rungs. But the question remains: is the threshold ...

thewire.in

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Syed Ali Zia Jaffery @alizia1992.bsky.social · Jun 13

A nuclear non-NPT state has attacked a non-nuclear NPT state, but not many will talk about this while discussing the challenges that the NPT-based NPR faces.

Syed Ali Zia Jaffery @alizia1992.bsky.social · Jun 13

Israel has launched airstrikes on Iranian targets. If the objective is to stop Iran from going nuclear, this approach defies military and strategic logic.

Don’t Blame Pakistan for the Taliban’s Takeover of Kabul

Syed Ali Zia Jaffery @alizia1992.bsky.social · Jun 12

Yesterday, I heard Yalda Hakim wrongly accuse Pakistan of bringing the Taliban back into power. This claim is bogus. In a 2021 The National Interest article ,I explained why Pakistan cannot be blamed for the capitulation of the Ghani government.

nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/do...

In a recent interview to The Washington Post, Pakistan’s National Security Adviser Moeed Yusuf vehemently argued that Pakistan should not be blamed for the swift takeover of Kabul by the Afghan Taliba...

nationalinterest.org