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Amanda Michaud @amandamichaud.bsky.social · Apr 18

PSA: we've switched the .github repository in which we store our data. Check the google site for the change.

‼️Teaser: we will be up on every economist's favorite data site very soon‼️ n/n

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Amanda Michaud @amandamichaud.bsky.social · Apr 18

Counterpoint to doom and gloom: While most of this data suggests the labor market is turning softer, the starting position is, historically, a pretty strong one. 4/n

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Amanda Michaud @amandamichaud.bsky.social · Apr 18

Quits continue to fall, often interpreted as pessimism or precaution against higher uncertainty about whether a new job would be easy to find. Layoffs seem to be creeping up as well. 4/n

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Amanda Michaud @amandamichaud.bsky.social · Apr 18

Optimistic view: labor market is strong, jobs are easy to find, so workers are not worried. BUT we see job finding rates and quits are down so maybe recently laid-off workers are those with the poor job prospects and are too discouraged to search? 3/n

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Amanda Michaud @amandamichaud.bsky.social · Apr 18

Employment to Unemployment flows decline while layoffs remain stable which we show are due to an increase layoffs into non-participation. 2/n

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Amanda Michaud @amandamichaud.bsky.social · Apr 18

Hot off the #QLmonthly presses: the odds a laid off worker exits the labor force altogether is reaching an all time high! Could unemployment rates be artificially low? Check out March's data and our monthly briefing sites.google.com/qlmonthly.co... 1/n

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Amanda Michaud @amandamichaud.bsky.social · Apr 1

www.minneapolisfed.org/institute/co...

Call for Papers | Opportunity & Inclusive Growth Institute

www.minneapolisfed.org

Amanda Michaud @amandamichaud.bsky.social · Apr 1

www.minneapolisfed.org/institute/co...

Call for Papers | Opportunity & Inclusive Growth Institute

www.minneapolisfed.org

Amanda Michaud @amandamichaud.bsky.social · Mar 31

Ahem: I mean papers **in progress** not (necessarily) papers on Economic development (although those are welcomed too) 🤦

Amanda Michaud @amandamichaud.bsky.social · Mar 31

📣 #econsky Each fall, Mpls Fed hosts scholars within 8 years of their PhD for an Early Career Workshop focused on papers **in development** This year's deadline is April 11. Share & help us find the best new 💡 from PhD's 2017-2024! www.minneapolisfed.org/institute/co...

www.minneapolisfed.org

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Amanda Michaud @amandamichaud.bsky.social · Mar 31

📣 #econsky Each fall, Mpls Fed hosts scholars within 8 years of their PhD for an Early Career Workshop focused on papers **in development** This year's deadline is April 11. Share & help us find the best new 💡 from PhD's 2017-2024! www.minneapolisfed.org/institute/co...

www.minneapolisfed.org

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Amanda Michaud @amandamichaud.bsky.social · Mar 28

Lots of skepticism of the Michigan Survey out there from the econ nerds. I'll add the chart below, comparing to CPS quits that K. Ellieroth and I construct. Thanks to my (fantastic) RA
Sara Canilang for showing this to me yesterday.

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Amanda Michaud @amandamichaud.bsky.social · Mar 21

Bottom Line: Quits weaker in level & momentum than other indicators. In forecasting, quits add most info about urate in medium run (+2 quarters). Still, we think current unusual pessimism in quits could reflect increased uncertainty about the future rather than material risks. 7/7

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Amanda Michaud @amandamichaud.bsky.social · Mar 21

2) Quits normally strongly co-move with job finding expectations but have diverged over the last year, falling much more than job finding expectations have fallen. 6/n

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Amanda Michaud @amandamichaud.bsky.social · Mar 21

In the monthly brief (qlmonthly.github.io/updates/QLmo...) we compare our series to FRBNY's Survey of Consumer expectations. Charts of note: 1) Layoff expectations lead layoffs and are actually falling at the moment. 5/n

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Amanda Michaud @amandamichaud.bsky.social · Mar 21

Not much month over month movement in job finding rates for the prime age which are at a fairly neutral level. 4/n

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Amanda Michaud @amandamichaud.bsky.social · Mar 21

Here's the puzzling one. Usually quits and layoffs move in opposite directions. Lately, quits have been declining steadily while layoffs have been fairly flat. (read on for more analysis on this) 3/n

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Amanda Michaud @amandamichaud.bsky.social · Mar 21

Layoffs to non-employment still moving a bit opposite of movements from employment to unemployment (EU) as a greater share of prime age workers who are laid off exit the labor force. 2/n

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Amanda Michaud @amandamichaud.bsky.social · Mar 21

#QLmonthly updated with February data. No material weakness in the labor market but quits are flashing a contradictory signal. This month we explore how quits relate to worker expectations and to forecasting. sites.google.com/qlmonthly.co... 1/n

QL Monthly

Percent of prime age employed workers who quit or are laid-off each month

sites.google.com

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Amanda Michaud @amandamichaud.bsky.social · Feb 21

And for the nerds: the monthly brief explains why our data ARE NOT affected by BLS revisions. (but fyi JOLTS are)

Amanda Michaud @amandamichaud.bsky.social · Feb 21

tldr; nothing notable in January means we're MORE confident that the labor market is settled in, but also no strong signal from flows about where we'll be tomorrow. Welcome to the random-walk! Of course there is a lot going on, we just report inference from flows.

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Amanda Michaud @amandamichaud.bsky.social · Feb 21

Job finding rates for unemployed prime age improved in January, but the 6-mo moving average did not shift up. Yet again, the current job finding rate is pretty normal.

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Amanda Michaud @amandamichaud.bsky.social · Feb 21

Quits continue steady decline after brief pause last year. Nothing abnormal yet.

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Amanda Michaud @amandamichaud.bsky.social · Feb 21

That EU fell more than layoffs means that a larger share of laid off prime age workers exited the labor force in December and January. This was out of historical "normal" but the data are noisy and so we'll check in next month.

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Amanda Michaud @amandamichaud.bsky.social · Feb 21

#QLmonthly update: updated with January data. Data support our view we've expressed over the past few months that the labor market has settled at a normal position after some noted cooling in early-mid 2024. The rise in prime EU and layoffs were not sustained.
sites.google.com/qlmonthly.co...

QL Monthly

Percent of prime age employed workers who quit or are laid-off each month

sites.google.com

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Amanda Michaud @amandamichaud.bsky.social · Jan 21

I empathize. Our battle, believe it or not, is convincing fellow macroeconomists that there's a difference between a quit and a layoff! But, yeah: point well taken.

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