Amy J. Nelson
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amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social
Amy J. Nelson
@amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social
820 followers 360 following 49 posts
Foreign Policy & National Security
Nuclear and AI Futures
Senior Fellow, Future Security Program, New America
Adjunct Faculty, Georgetown University
Posts Replies Media Videos
amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social
Harnessing disagreement is not a nice-to-have in nuclear policy. It is a resilience requirement.

#NuclearRisk #StrategicStability #Deterrence
@newamerica.org
foreignpolicy.com Foreign Policy @foreignpolicy.com · 8h
The next generation of nuclear strategy must be able to harness disagreement as a source of resilience, not paralysis, argues Amy J. Nelson.
Nuclear Policy Must Learn to Live With Disagreement
From climate to AI, other fields have bridged deep divides.
foreignpolicy.com
December 12, 2025 at 4:36 PM
amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social
Grateful to the @newamerica.org team for supporting this work. The report unpacks why warnings fail and what it means for nuclear risk today.
newamerica.org New America @newamerica.org · 1d
Public awareness of nuclear danger remains high even as action to reduce it is rare.

Read the latest report by @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social to learn more.

☢️ https://www.newamerica.org/future-security/future-security-scenarios-lab/reports/threat-complacency-and-nuclear-risk/
Cover of the report titled 'Threat and Nuclear Risk: Addressing Old Threats' by Amy J. Nelson, for New America's Future Security program, featuring yellow warning triangles on a dark background.
December 11, 2025 at 4:33 PM
amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social
My @foreignpolicy.com op-ed is now live. It looks at what the nuclear policy field can learn from other deeply divided fields that rebuilt coherence and widened public engagement.

Op-ed: foreignpolicy.com/2025/12/11/n...
Report: www.newamerica.org/future-secur...

#NuclearRisk #NationalSecurity
Threat Complacency and Nuclear Risk: Addressing Old Threats in a New Era
This report explores why public awareness of nuclear threats fails to spark action—and how to break the cycle.
www.newamerica.org
December 11, 2025 at 3:53 PM
amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social
Our new @newamerica.org report is out today. It explains why nuclear risk warnings rarely land with the public and how fractured expert signals contribute to the problem.

Report: www.newamerica.org/future-secur...

A companion op-ed comes out at 10 @foreignpolicy.com

#NuclearRisk #RiskAnalysis
Threat Complacency and Nuclear Risk: Addressing Old Threats in a New Era
This report explores why public awareness of nuclear threats fails to spark action—and how to break the cycle.
www.newamerica.org
December 11, 2025 at 2:03 PM
Reposted by Amy J. Nelson
poni.csis.org
In PONI's newest episode of The Negotiator Files, @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social speaks with Monte Mallin, who shares insights from his decades of experience as a U.S. arms control negotiator.

Watch the interview here: nuclearnetwork.csis.org/the-negotiat...
November 17, 2025 at 8:59 PM
amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social
I warned that without clear US nuclear policy, we’d be vulnerable to misinterpretation—even of a tweet.

Trump’s remark on “restarting testing” shows it: allies alarmed, adversaries emboldened. Ambiguity can deter—but it can also destabilize.
bit.ly/3BvQwVnY
#NuclearPolicy #Deterrence #ForeignPolicy
Trump and the New Era of U.S. Nuclear Ambiguity
Trump’s decision to skip a Nuclear Posture Review risks dangerous ambiguity—leaving allies and adversaries guessing on U.S. doctrine.
www.newamerica.org
November 4, 2025 at 2:18 PM
amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social
So this was troll-the-libs-nuclear-testing-edition…
nytimes.com The New York Times @nytimes.com · Nov 2
The nuclear testing ordered by President Trump will not involve nuclear explosions, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on Sunday, clarifying that the testing would involve “the other parts of a nuclear weapon” to ensure they are working properly.
New Weapons Testing Won’t Include Nuclear Explosions, Energy Secretary Says
Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the testing ordered up in a surprise announcement by President Trump last week would focus on “the other parts” of nuclear weaponry.
nyti.ms
November 3, 2025 at 7:05 PM
amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social
Coming soon from the Future Security Scenarios Lab: our new report on why warnings of catastrophic nuclear risk go unheard—and how to make them matter.
newamerica.org New America @newamerica.org · Oct 31
The real horror story? 😱 Nuclear warnings don’t work the way we think. ☢️

Stay tuned for an upcoming report from @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social on resistance to warnings of catastrophic nuclear risk. 🕷️
Promotional graphic for Future Security Scenarios Lab featuring a design of multiple teal bats flying upwards, with text "THE REAL HORROR STORY Nuclear warnings don't work the way we think." Text on image from Future Security Scenarios Lab: "We keep trying to scare people into caring about nuclear weapons. Turns out, fear doesn't work." Graphic includes a spider and a spider web.
October 31, 2025 at 12:15 PM
amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social
What does it take to build conditions for nuclear disarmament? In PONI’s Negotiator Files, I speak with Christopher Ford about lessons from the NPT process and the CEND initiative.
poni.csis.org CSIS Project on Nuclear Issues @poni.csis.org · Oct 8
In PONI’s latest episode of The Negotiator Files, interviewer @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social interviewed Christopher Ford. He discussed his role in the NPT conferences and the Creating an Environment for Nuclear Disarmament (CEND) initiative.

Watch it here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=6s2C...
The Negotiator Files: A Conversation with Christopher Ford
YouTube video by Center for Strategic & International Studies
www.youtube.com
October 29, 2025 at 2:24 PM
Reposted by Amy J. Nelson
alexmontgomery.bsky.social
NPR is useful for many things, even though most of them make at most small changes at the margin. It's the current signal for US (declared) nuclear doctrine, and it tells organizations what to do. In the absence of a new one, organizations will soldier on, but doctrine becomes dangerously ambiguous.
amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social Amy J. Nelson @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social · Sep 25
The Trump admin looks set to skip an NPR—a break with decades of precedent that leaves US nuclear strategy unusually opaque.

As we wait for new strategy docs, the question is: will they fill the gap, or is ambiguity now the point?

New piece for @newamerica.org:
🔗 www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
Trump and the New Era of U.S. Nuclear Ambiguity
Trump’s decision to skip a Nuclear Posture Review risks dangerous ambiguity—leaving allies and adversaries guessing on U.S. doctrine.
www.newamerica.org
September 25, 2025 at 5:16 PM
amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social
The Trump admin looks set to skip an NPR—a break with decades of precedent that leaves US nuclear strategy unusually opaque.

As we wait for new strategy docs, the question is: will they fill the gap, or is ambiguity now the point?

New piece for @newamerica.org:
🔗 www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
Trump and the New Era of U.S. Nuclear Ambiguity
Trump’s decision to skip a Nuclear Posture Review risks dangerous ambiguity—leaving allies and adversaries guessing on U.S. doctrine.
www.newamerica.org
September 25, 2025 at 1:33 PM
Reposted by Amy J. Nelson
newamerica.org
New America experts around the web:

1️⃣ @slaughteram.bsky.social for @bloomberg.com bloom.bg/4o5daLr

2️⃣ @mschmitt9.bsky.social for Democracy Journal bit.ly/415YQs4

3️⃣ @sydneysaubestre.bsky.social for @usnews.com bit.ly/3GZ3yBd

4️⃣ @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social for Modern War Institute bit.ly/4lOnbeu
Website news article titled "To Restore America, Start with Honor" by Anne-Marie Slaughter, CEO of New America, dated July 3, 2025. The background features the American flag. Website news article titled "Think Tanks in an Authoritarian Moment" by Mark Schmitt, Senior Director of New America's Political Reform Program, dated July 16, 2025. The background features people gathered in protest. Website news article titled "The Kids Are Not Alright. But Don’t Blame Social Media." by Sydney Saubestre, Senior Policy Analyst of New America's Open Technology Institute, dated July 17, 2025. The background features social media icons on a phone. Website news article titled "The False Debate That Could Ignite the Next Nuclear Crisis" by Amy J. Nelson, Director of New America's Future Security Scenarios Lab, dated July 23, 2025. The background features a nuclear power plant.
July 24, 2025 at 8:29 PM
amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social
This podcast is asking the right questions: What should guide future #Nuclear #ArmsControl in a world beyond #parity + warhead cuts?

Well done @pranayrvaddi.bsky.social, Vipin Narang, Mallory Stewart, Mike Albertson!

Framing the New START Follow-On Discussion open.substack.com/pub/strategi...
Framing the New START Follow-On Discussion
Vipin and I welcome Mallory Stewart and Mike Albertson to discuss impediments to negotiating a New START follow-on agreement, how China factors in, and what a future agreement may look like.
open.substack.com
July 7, 2025 at 3:02 PM
amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social
In a world where #ArmsControl treaties are unraveling, what comes next?

My latest for @newamerica.org looks at the #Iran crisis as a warning—and a preview—of how strategic uncertainty plays out in an age without #Nuclear arms control agreements.

www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
What the Iran Crisis Reveals about Arms Control
www.newamerica.org
July 1, 2025 at 1:15 PM
amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social
The #Iran crisis isn’t just about uranium or airstrikes. It’s about what happens when #ArmsControl frameworks break down and we don’t have a strategy for what comes next.

🔗 www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
#NatSec #Diplomacy #Nuclear
What the Iran Crisis Reveals about Arms Control
www.newamerica.org
June 30, 2025 at 8:53 PM
amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social
1/
For decades, the U.S. and others threatened force to deter nuclear breakout—expecting diplomacy to follow. But what happens when the diplomatic track erodes altogether?

🧵
June 16, 2025 at 4:26 PM
amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social
1/
Iran’s drone program is a case study in how strategic tech spreads, even under pressure. From importer to innovator to exporter. Quick breakdown 🧵
nytimes.com The New York Times @nytimes.com · Jun 15
Israel bombarded Tehran with a new wave of strikes on Sunday afternoon, as both sides warned of more to come in a conflict that is rapidly expanding in scope and intensity. Follow live updates. nyti.ms/4kIzaK4
In the foreground, a tall, light-colored building stands among a city's buildings with a mountain in the background, over which dark smoke rises into a clear blue sky. A headline reads: "Israel and Iran Trade Strikes In Increasingly Deadly Attacks" Photo by Arash Khamooshi for The New York Times
June 15, 2025 at 5:46 PM
amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social
When RAND was founded in 1948, it was because the old ways of thinking couldn’t meet new atomic-age threats. The Future Security Scenarios Lab @newamerica.org picks up that mantle—designing futures thinking for today’s interdependent risks. Read more here:
www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
June 13, 2025 at 2:16 PM
amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social
🚨 New blog post!
We’ve launched the Future Security Scenarios Lab at @newamerica.org, a space to rethink security in a fast-changing world.

Our first blog post dives into why this feels like a new “RAND moment.”
📖 Read: www.newamerica.org/future-secur...

#StrategicForesight #NationalSecurity
Launching the Future Security Scenarios Lab: Meeting Today’s RAND Moment
The Future Security Scenarios Lab advances a multidisciplinary approach to tackle complex security challenges through advanced technologies
www.newamerica.org
June 11, 2025 at 4:17 PM
amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social
Worth noting: The new US proposal to Iran underscores a broader truth: #ArmsControl often advances not through grand bargains, but through incremental steps. As my work highlights, this kind of progress can reduce risk and build stability even amid deep #uncertainty.

www.nytimes.com/2025/06/03/u...
U.S. Proposes Interim Step in Iran Nuclear Talks Allowing Some Enrichment
www.nytimes.com
June 6, 2025 at 3:30 PM
amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social
I'm so proud of the team we're building and the launch of the Future Security Scenarios Lab @newamerica.org!

If you’re working on futures thinking and national security, let’s talk.

#Foresight #FuturesThinking #NuclearPolicy #AI #NationalSecurity #FSSL
newamerica.org New America @newamerica.org · Jun 4
🎊 New America has launched the Future Security Scenarios Lab (FSSL), led by ‪@amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social ‬! 🎊

FSSL’s many-model approach equips policymakers/scholars w/ a future-forward toolkit to confront the national security challenges of today and tomorrow.

🔗 go.newamerica.org/new-america-...
Digital graphic of glowing blue network connections symbolizing New America's launch of the Future Security Scenarios Lab to address national security risks.
June 4, 2025 at 4:29 PM
amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social
Arms control negotiations don't collapse over weapons—they collapse over mistrust.

When you can’t trust the other side’s intentions, that’s the death knell. Every time.

#armscontrol #natsec #diplomacy

via @nbcnews www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/i...
Iran accuses U.S. of 'provocative statements' ahead of nuclear talks
The Foreign Ministry spokesperson criticized “the contradictory approach of American decision-makers," state media reported.
www.nbcnews.com
May 2, 2025 at 3:18 PM
amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social
In advance of the announced #nuclear negotiations between US and #Iran this weekend, I'm re-upping: forceful tactics may have brought Iran to the negotiation table, but will not seal the deal. US will have to compromise, adapt, and resist the seduction of the binary – "winning" won't work here.
April 11, 2025 at 3:49 PM
Reposted by Amy J. Nelson
francoisdm.bsky.social
Just in: To prevent Iran’s nuclear breakout, Trump must confront a messy reality: diplomacy

@amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social's latest in @thebulletin.org

thebulletin.org/2025/03/to-p...

#Iran #nuclearweapons #armscontrol #Trump #diplomacy #nukesky
To prevent Iran's nuclear breakout, Trump must confront a messy reality: diplomacy
To curb Iran's nuclear ambitions before it is too late, the Trump administration has no choice but to learn the art of strategic compromise.
thebulletin.org
March 25, 2025 at 3:17 PM
amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social
The U.S. 2023 Conventional Arms Transfer (CAT) Policy has just been rescinded by the White House. CAT policy regulates US arms exports to promote US security interests, including alliances, support economic and defense industry interests, and address human rights and regional stability concerns.
March 17, 2025 at 3:01 PM