Andy Lloyd
@andyjlloyd.bsky.social
Funny how comforting it is that, in the long run, we’re all dead. In the meantime, walking the Malvern hills with Pablo.
5️⃣ So the real question isn’t “will oil prices collapse Russia?”
It’s whether Russia can keep exchanging energy and raw materials for the complex imports it can’t produce itself. That’s a logistics and geopolitics question — not a price chart.
It’s whether Russia can keep exchanging energy and raw materials for the complex imports it can’t produce itself. That’s a logistics and geopolitics question — not a price chart.
January 11, 2026 at 8:17 AM
5️⃣ So the real question isn’t “will oil prices collapse Russia?”
It’s whether Russia can keep exchanging energy and raw materials for the complex imports it can’t produce itself. That’s a logistics and geopolitics question — not a price chart.
It’s whether Russia can keep exchanging energy and raw materials for the complex imports it can’t produce itself. That’s a logistics and geopolitics question — not a price chart.
4️⃣ Oil prices and sanctions still matter — but mainly through exchange constraints.
The key vulnerability isn’t “running out of money”, but access to machine tools, electronics, pharmaceuticals and logistics. These pressures degrade capacity gradually.
The key vulnerability isn’t “running out of money”, but access to machine tools, electronics, pharmaceuticals and logistics. These pressures degrade capacity gradually.
January 11, 2026 at 8:17 AM
4️⃣ Oil prices and sanctions still matter — but mainly through exchange constraints.
The key vulnerability isn’t “running out of money”, but access to machine tools, electronics, pharmaceuticals and logistics. These pressures degrade capacity gradually.
The key vulnerability isn’t “running out of money”, but access to machine tools, electronics, pharmaceuticals and logistics. These pressures degrade capacity gradually.
3️⃣ On that test, Russia is hard to collapse.
Not because it is thriving, but because it is resource-dense: domestic food staples, energy for heat and power, and bulk materials matter more than headline growth numbers, especially in winter.
Not because it is thriving, but because it is resource-dense: domestic food staples, energy for heat and power, and bulk materials matter more than headline growth numbers, especially in winter.
January 11, 2026 at 8:17 AM
3️⃣ On that test, Russia is hard to collapse.
Not because it is thriving, but because it is resource-dense: domestic food staples, energy for heat and power, and bulk materials matter more than headline growth numbers, especially in winter.
Not because it is thriving, but because it is resource-dense: domestic food staples, energy for heat and power, and bulk materials matter more than headline growth numbers, especially in winter.
2️⃣ States usually fail when provisioning fails.
If food distribution, electricity and heating, transport fuel and basic services continue, societies tend to endure long periods of strain — even under sanctions, war or severe trade pressure.
If food distribution, electricity and heating, transport fuel and basic services continue, societies tend to endure long periods of strain — even under sanctions, war or severe trade pressure.
January 11, 2026 at 8:17 AM
2️⃣ States usually fail when provisioning fails.
If food distribution, electricity and heating, transport fuel and basic services continue, societies tend to endure long periods of strain — even under sanctions, war or severe trade pressure.
If food distribution, electricity and heating, transport fuel and basic services continue, societies tend to endure long periods of strain — even under sanctions, war or severe trade pressure.
Brilliant, love this
October 21, 2025 at 6:05 PM
Brilliant, love this
7. Real resources matter.
The government is constrained by the availability of real resources and its ability to mobilise them. “Anything we can do, we can afford.” JM Keynes. #MMT
The government is constrained by the availability of real resources and its ability to mobilise them. “Anything we can do, we can afford.” JM Keynes. #MMT
October 21, 2025 at 7:42 AM
7. Real resources matter.
The government is constrained by the availability of real resources and its ability to mobilise them. “Anything we can do, we can afford.” JM Keynes. #MMT
The government is constrained by the availability of real resources and its ability to mobilise them. “Anything we can do, we can afford.” JM Keynes. #MMT
6. The effect: depoliticising economics.
By framing the state as a household, questions about distribution, power, and ownership sound like questions about accounting. Instead of “what kind of economy do we want?” people are encouraged to ask “how can we afford it?” #MMT
By framing the state as a household, questions about distribution, power, and ownership sound like questions about accounting. Instead of “what kind of economy do we want?” people are encouraged to ask “how can we afford it?” #MMT
October 21, 2025 at 7:42 AM
6. The effect: depoliticising economics.
By framing the state as a household, questions about distribution, power, and ownership sound like questions about accounting. Instead of “what kind of economy do we want?” people are encouraged to ask “how can we afford it?” #MMT
By framing the state as a household, questions about distribution, power, and ownership sound like questions about accounting. Instead of “what kind of economy do we want?” people are encouraged to ask “how can we afford it?” #MMT
5. It separated monetary and fiscal power.
The 1970s inflation crisis was used to justify giving central banks “independence.” Entrenching the idea that the BoE must be neutral and technocratic, while politicians must “find the money” through taxes or borrowing. #MMT
The 1970s inflation crisis was used to justify giving central banks “independence.” Entrenching the idea that the BoE must be neutral and technocratic, while politicians must “find the money” through taxes or borrowing. #MMT
October 21, 2025 at 7:42 AM
5. It separated monetary and fiscal power.
The 1970s inflation crisis was used to justify giving central banks “independence.” Entrenching the idea that the BoE must be neutral and technocratic, while politicians must “find the money” through taxes or borrowing. #MMT
The 1970s inflation crisis was used to justify giving central banks “independence.” Entrenching the idea that the BoE must be neutral and technocratic, while politicians must “find the money” through taxes or borrowing. #MMT
4. And prioritises the interests of financial markets.
From the ‘80s onward, the Treasury and BoE were reorganised to make bond markets the apparent source of public finance.
In reality, markets depend on the government’s money creation. The illusion of dependence shifts power toward finance. #MMT
From the ‘80s onward, the Treasury and BoE were reorganised to make bond markets the apparent source of public finance.
In reality, markets depend on the government’s money creation. The illusion of dependence shifts power toward finance. #MMT
October 21, 2025 at 7:42 AM
4. And prioritises the interests of financial markets.
From the ‘80s onward, the Treasury and BoE were reorganised to make bond markets the apparent source of public finance.
In reality, markets depend on the government’s money creation. The illusion of dependence shifts power toward finance. #MMT
From the ‘80s onward, the Treasury and BoE were reorganised to make bond markets the apparent source of public finance.
In reality, markets depend on the government’s money creation. The illusion of dependence shifts power toward finance. #MMT
3. It legitimises austerity and privatisation.
Once the state is said to be financially constrained it justifies cutting services and welfare, paving the way for private capital to take over state functions and allowing politicians to claim prudence for shrinking the state. #MMT
Once the state is said to be financially constrained it justifies cutting services and welfare, paving the way for private capital to take over state functions and allowing politicians to claim prudence for shrinking the state. #MMT
October 21, 2025 at 7:42 AM
3. It legitimises austerity and privatisation.
Once the state is said to be financially constrained it justifies cutting services and welfare, paving the way for private capital to take over state functions and allowing politicians to claim prudence for shrinking the state. #MMT
Once the state is said to be financially constrained it justifies cutting services and welfare, paving the way for private capital to take over state functions and allowing politicians to claim prudence for shrinking the state. #MMT
2. It imposes artificial scarcity on the public sector.
By insisting that the government must first collect taxes or borrow before it can spend, policymakers created a narrative of constraint. That narrative limits public spending. #MMT
By insisting that the government must first collect taxes or borrow before it can spend, policymakers created a narrative of constraint. That narrative limits public spending. #MMT
October 21, 2025 at 7:42 AM
2. It imposes artificial scarcity on the public sector.
By insisting that the government must first collect taxes or borrow before it can spend, policymakers created a narrative of constraint. That narrative limits public spending. #MMT
By insisting that the government must first collect taxes or borrow before it can spend, policymakers created a narrative of constraint. That narrative limits public spending. #MMT
3.Scare stories keep rentier monopolies safe. The lesson from Truss isn’t “never upset markets,” it’s: design policy coherently, anchor it in real resources, and stop giving finance a veto over democracy.
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September 30, 2025 at 6:23 AM
3.Scare stories keep rentier monopolies safe. The lesson from Truss isn’t “never upset markets,” it’s: design policy coherently, anchor it in real resources, and stop giving finance a veto over democracy.
www.cliffordchance.com/content/dam/...
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