Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

France loses another prime minister. The Middle East waits for Hamas's next move.

Andy Langenkamp @andylangenkamp.bsky.social · 1d

For years, LeCornu had perfected the art of being an agreeable cipher; journalists noted that he had the personality of a well-pressed napkin. Then came Bayrou’s implosion, and Macron, looking for ballast, mistook dead weight for stability claireberlinski.substack.com/p/france-los...

Plus: Your new GLOBAL EYES blog

claireberlinski.substack.com

As France Faces Political Turmoil, Macron Is Backed Into a Corner

Andy Langenkamp @andylangenkamp.bsky.social · 1d

The 3 ingredients of the global debt crisis: very high global debt levels; budget deficits all over the place remain exceptionally wide; idiosyncratic trouble spots that periodically blow up, causing contagion. Yesterday was all about the last point

Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 2d

Today was a really bad day in global bond markets, with longer-term yields spiking everywhere. At the root of all this is Japan, where markets worry about the likely next prime minister, who's a fiscal dove. Huge spike in Japan's 30-year JGB. Japan is a safe haven no more...

1 8

Andy Langenkamp @andylangenkamp.bsky.social · 1d

Britain accounts for 40% of phone thefts in Europe, writes @economist.com. How, why?

Andy Langenkamp @andylangenkamp.bsky.social · 1d

My take: While France's fiscal slippage (113.9% debt-to-GDP, deficits up to 6.1% in 2025) rattles markets, its diversified economy, ECB agility, and isolated political deadlock reduce broader risks ecrresearch.com/research/glo...

As France Faces Political Turmoil, Macron Is Backed Into a Corner

Andy Langenkamp @andylangenkamp.bsky.social · 1d

Macron can 1) dissolve Parliament, which is likely to lead great succes for Le Pen's RN in the ensuing vote 2) do what he's resisted & ask a center-left politician to form a govt 3) opt for more of the same, hoping for the miracle of a different result www.nytimes.com/2025/10/07/w...

Israel at War With Itself

Andy Langenkamp @andylangenkamp.bsky.social · 1d

For Palestinians, a statehood that more countries have recognized of late remains a remote aspiration, at best. That is the immovable issue at the heart of war after war www.nytimes.com/2025/10/05/w...

Global Political Analysis | ECR Research

Andy Langenkamp @andylangenkamp.bsky.social · 2d

Macron verslijt premiers alsof het croissants zijn, maar op deze manier van politiek bedrijven komt geen brood op de Franse hervormingsplank. Welke scenario's zijn het meest waarschijnlijk voor Frankrijk en voor de besmettingsrisico's voor de Eurozone? ecrresearch.com/research/glo...

Explore ECR Research's global political analysis. Discover how geopolitical events and political risks impact financial markets and investment strategies.

Global Political Analysis | ECR Research

Andy Langenkamp @andylangenkamp.bsky.social · 2d

French crisis deepens - The euro dipped and French bond yields climbed as Lecornu’s exit deepens France’s crisis. Is a Eurozone-wide fallout becoming more likely? ecrresearch.com/research/glo...

Explore ECR Research's global political analysis. Discover how geopolitical events and political risks impact financial markets and investment strategies.

Drones, Democracy and the War in Ukraine

Andy Langenkamp @andylangenkamp.bsky.social · 2d

The new economics of war: Drones worth hundreds or thousands of dollars must be shot down by missiles that cost millions to protect tanks and ships that cost even more www.nytimes.com/2025/10/05/w...

It’s the Internet, Stupid

Andy Langenkamp @andylangenkamp.bsky.social · 5d

@frankfukuyama.bsky.social: It is only the rise of the internet that can explain how we can be in an existential struggle for liberal democracy, at a time in history when liberal democracy has never been as successful www.persuasion.community/p/its-the-in...

What caused the global populist wave? Blame the screens.

www.persuasion.community

Andy Langenkamp @andylangenkamp.bsky.social · 5d

The next U.S. president, no matter their approach, will inherit allies who flatter but also hedge, adversaries who test and wait, and a system in which the United States’ word simply carries less weight than it once did www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

The Price of Unpredictability

Trump’s foreign policy is ruining American credibility.

www.foreignaffairs.com

Andy Langenkamp @andylangenkamp.bsky.social · 5d

Trump proposes deals before backing down. He promises to end wars before expanding them. He berates U.S. allies and embraces adversaries. With Trump, the only pattern is the lack of one www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

The Price of Unpredictability

Trump’s foreign policy is ruining American credibility.

www.foreignaffairs.com

Andy Langenkamp @andylangenkamp.bsky.social · 5d

Juist, onder- & overbelicht: Handelsoorlog, Essentiële Slagaders & Dedollarisering. Naast de Global Political Analysis is er nu de eerste editie van The Big Political Three: de drie politieke risico’s die markten écht bewegen (of niet...) ecrresearch.com/big-politica...

The Big Political Three | Oversold, Overlooked, On Point | ECR Research

The U.S. proposes a plan for peace in Gaza.

Andy Langenkamp @andylangenkamp.bsky.social · 5d

On Point. Overlooked. Overhyped.

This week: Trade War, Essential Arteries & De-dollarization.

The first edition of The Big Political Three is out — your weekly lens on the geopolitical & geo-economic forces shaping markets ecrresearch.com/big-politica...

Andy Langenkamp @andylangenkamp.bsky.social · 6d

For now: A glimmer of hope, and major kudos to the Trump administration for landing on a more thoughtful, in some ways novel, and genuinely practical proposal worthy of both Israel and Hamas getting on board www.readtangle.com/hamas-israel...

Plus, how would Tangle have covered 1930s Germany?

www.readtangle.com

Andy Langenkamp @andylangenkamp.bsky.social · 6d

Protectionist policies can deliver private gains to the best-lobbied incumbents, but the general equilibrium (especially under a capricious formula) erodes expectations, swells risk premia and torpedoes the very regions it purports to champion www.theunseenandtheunsaid.com/p/whos-afrai...

Who’s Afraid of Tariffs? Investors, Especially in “Red” America

Huijun Yan and Randall Morck have a sharp new NBER working paper out: “Who’s Afraid of Tariffs?

www.theunseenandtheunsaid.com

1 1

Andy Langenkamp @andylangenkamp.bsky.social · 6d

It is impossible for the rest of the world to ignore the two predatory superpowers, since together they generate 43 per cent of global GDP at market prices (and 34 per cent at purchasing power parity) www.ft.com/content/f836...

A world with two predatory superpowers

Nations must work out how to contend with Trump’s America and China

www.ft.com

Andy Langenkamp @andylangenkamp.bsky.social · 6d

Ripped off by the rest of the world, as Trump claims? Hardly. www.ft.com/content/f836...

Andy Langenkamp @andylangenkamp.bsky.social · 6d

Blijft bijzonder: slechts een greep uit 1 dag Amerikaans nieuws (ophef en/of onzekerheid over Pentagon, FBI, Fed en importheffingen), maar vooralsnog stomen aandelen en de Amerikaanse economie rustig door @TheEconomist

Andy Langenkamp @andylangenkamp.bsky.social · 6d

U.S. Government Shutdown: will No. 14 Be Different? icc-consultants.nl/nl/us-govern...

icc-consultants.nl

Andy Langenkamp @andylangenkamp.bsky.social · 7d

U.S. Government Shutdown - Why No. 14 Is Different. As of today, the U.S. government doors are closed. There are two key differences from previous shutdowns, potentially with significant consequences for financial markets ecrresearch.com/ecr-extra-up... #shutdown #USPolitics

ECR Extra Update - 1st October 2025 | ECR Research