Interesting, sounds like you would feel the same way even in the playoff format where the third poss. is guaranteed.

My intuition was that at some point that third poss. becomes valuable enough to make it worthwhile but I’m certainly not going to argue with The Professor on game theory… Thanks!

Thanks for responding! You don’t take into account the 3rd poss. though, which is the point of going. If the game were only 2 possessions long it’s trivially that you go for the PAT as you well showed.

What if:
2pt try: 50%
PAT: 95%
Game winning figgie on 3rd poss. if tied 50%

Still kick?

The downside is if they miss a matching TD essentially wins for the second team, but if they make it they’re essentially guaranteed either the win or a third possession (though I guess time could prevent it) … Would love to know your thoughts!

That was a fourth down pass. Even if it hits the turf that’s a turnover… Huge break for Carolina.