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Anne Rasmussen

@annerasmussen.bsky.social

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Anne Rasmussen @annerasmussen.bsky.social · Dec 11

Delighted that @gregoryeady.bsky.social and my paper "Gendered Perceptions and the Costs of Political Toxicity: Experimental Evidence from Politicians and Citizens in Four Democracies" is now online @apsrjournal.bsky.social (Open access)

More in this [1/14]

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Bart Maes @bart-maes.bsky.social · 5d

Politicians don’t just care how many people hold an opinion — they care how good that opinion is. In our new (open-access) article in West European Politics, based on survey data from 900+ politicians across 11 countries, we show: quality > quantity. Read more: doi.org/10.1080/0140...

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Anne Rasmussen @annerasmussen.bsky.social · 6d

Already congratulated you but many (!) congrats here too. Really happy this happened 👏 🕺well-deserved!

Anne Rasmussen @annerasmussen.bsky.social · 8d

@fgenovese.bsky.social ...especially because we know that media salience is associated with improvements in policy representation more generally (judged based on opinion-policy congruence) and it's likely it could also affect perceptions of public opinion ejpr.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

ejpr.onlinelibrary.wiley.com

Anne Rasmussen @annerasmussen.bsky.social · 8d

@fgenovese.bsky.social We have issues that vary in perceived salience according to the representatives but do not have data on their media consumption patterns. This probably would not offset the effect of self-projection but media consumption would be very relevant to examine in future research

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Anne Rasmussen @annerasmussen.bsky.social · 9d

@kingsqpe.bsky.social @kcl-spe.bsky.social @polscileiden.bsky.social @ecprinterestgroups.bsky.social

Anne Rasmussen @annerasmussen.bsky.social · 9d

Bottom line:

Politicians’ perceptions of public opinion appear more closely linked to who they are than to who they talk to

Full paper here: 🔗 doi.org/10.1086/734528

10/10

Sources of Elected Representatives’ (Mis)Perceptions of Public Opinion: The Role of Self-Projection and Interest Groups | The Journal of Politics

Scholars question the effectiveness of representation, suggesting politicians often misperceive public opinion. We explore the magnitude and potential drivers of misperceptions by comparing actual pub...

doi.org

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Anne Rasmussen @annerasmussen.bsky.social · 9d

For democracy, this is both worrying and reassuring:
⚠️Worrying, because many politicians soften simply see the public as a mirror of themselves.
✅Reassuring, because centrist politicians—often in government—should be more likely to get majority opinion right.

9/10

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Anne Rasmussen @annerasmussen.bsky.social · 9d

Taken together:
-Misperceptions are widespread
-They are most strongly associated with self-projection - Interest groups play a more modest, indirect role

This suggests that getting representation “right” depends more on curbing projection than on changing group contacts

8/10

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Anne Rasmussen @annerasmussen.bsky.social · 9d

A mediation analysis suggests why:

If interest groups matter, their influence is mostly indirect—by shaping politicians’ own views, which in turn are associated with their (biased) perceptions of citizens.

7/10

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Anne Rasmussen @annerasmussen.bsky.social · 9d

What about interest groups?

Links to business groups are associated with less accurate perceptions—but not with systematic bias

Interactions with citizen groups show little connection to either accuracy or bias of perceptions

So, interest groups likely matter less than often feared.

6/10

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Anne Rasmussen @annerasmussen.bsky.social · 9d

Self-projection matters a lot:

Politicians’ estimates move systematically toward their own views:
(1)Right-wing politicians think the public is more right-wing.
(2) Left-wing politicians think the public is more left-wing.

“False consensus” in action.

5/10

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Anne Rasmussen @annerasmussen.bsky.social · 9d

We consider a comprehensive set of indicators capturing
- information from
- contact with, and
- (various forms of) engagement in interest groups.

And we measure at both the accuracy of and ideological bias in perceptions of public opinion

4/10

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Anne Rasmussen @annerasmussen.bsky.social · 9d

We then test two main factors which could be linked to these misperceptions:

(1) Self-projection – politicians assume the public thinks like they do.
(2) Interest groups – ties to business or citizen groups correlate with perceptions.

3/10

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Anne Rasmussen @annerasmussen.bsky.social · 9d

We compare what citizens actually think on 5 salient policy issues (immigration, safety, healthcare, culture, environment) with politicians’ estimates

On average, politicians misestimate support by 22 percentage points (!).

BUT biases vary a lot (!) by issue & country.

2/10

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Anne Rasmussen @annerasmussen.bsky.social · 9d

🚨 New paper in @thejop.bsky.social

Why do politicians often misperceive what citizens' policy positions are?

@simonotjes.bsky.social and I study ~10,000 estimates of public opinion by politicians in Denmark & the Netherlands to uncover the sources of these (mis)perceptions

Thread 🧵1/10

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Tinette Schnatterer @tinesch.bsky.social · 16d

How do governments mobilise public opinion in times of uncertainty? Do they gauche public opinion systematically across policy domains or unevenly depending on the issue ?🧵

www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Government polling in times of crises: when capacity meets incentives

How do governments mobilise public opinion in times of crises? While recent research examines the factors that determine the intensity of government polling at different points in the electoral cyc...

www.tandfonline.com

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Zander Furnas @alexanderfurnas.com · 19d

Thrilled that my paper "Partisan disparities in the funding of science in the United States" with Nic Fishman, @leahrosenstiel.bsky.social, and @dashunwang.bsky.social was published in @science.org today!
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

Partisan disparities in the funding of science in the United States

Republican lawmakers consistently provided robust federal funding, often exceeding Democrats

www.science.org

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Anne Rasmussen @annerasmussen.bsky.social · 18d

Many congrats @alexanderfurnas.com et al. :-)

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Anne Rasmussen @annerasmussen.bsky.social · Sep 4

Many congrats to you & not least IE (!) Catherine

Anne Rasmussen @annerasmussen.bsky.social · Sep 4

Many (!) congrats! Very happy to read this

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Anne Rasmussen @annerasmussen.bsky.social · Sep 4

Stort(!) tillykke Jacob! Glad på dine vegne 🕺🙌

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Anne Rasmussen @annerasmussen.bsky.social · Sep 4

Stort tillykke!!

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European Consortium for Political Research @ecpr.bsky.social · Aug 29

Yesterday at #ecprgc25 👇

💡 Keynote speech by Margaritis Schinas, Vice President of the European Commission

📚 Publishing session @annerasmussen.bsky.social, @irobo.bsky.social, @mlorimer.bsky.social, @alessandronai.bsky.social, @steven-vanhauwaert.bsky.social

⭐ Thanks to everyone who participated!

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Cambridge University Press Political Science & IR @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org · Aug 28

In January 2026, Cambridge University Press joins forces with ECPR to publish the European Journal of Political Research, European Political Science, the European Political Science Review and the Political Data Yearbook.

Find out more - cup.org/3UG4RIB

#ecprgc25

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Anne Rasmussen @annerasmussen.bsky.social · Aug 24

Headed to #ecprgc25? 🇬🇷☀️📝💻

Please join us for this roundtable on open science featuring editors from @prxjournal.bsky.social @mlorimer.bsky.social @stevenhauwert & from @ejprjournal.bsky.social @alessandronai.bsky.social @isabelleborucki

The roundtable doesn’t overlap with any research panels 👏

European Journal of Political Research @ejprjournal.bsky.social · Aug 21

📢 One week to go #ecprgc25

📊 Open Science in Political Research with @prxjournal.bsky.social & EJPR
📆 Thursday 28th August
⏰ 13:30 – 15:15 EEST
📌 Law Building, Floor: Ground Floor, Room: Amphitheatre B

➡️ buff.ly/xSvXWbU

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