Antônio Sampaio
@antoniosamp.bsky.social
130 followers 190 following 37 posts
Independent researcher and PhD candidate at the War Studies Department, King's College London. Focused on urban safety, violence prevention, crime and conflict. Previously Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime, IISS. Former journalist.
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antoniosamp.bsky.social
Had the pleasure of contributing to Monocle Radio, commenting on the top stories today w/ @andrewmueller.bsky.social @burcuozcelik.bsky.social. Particularly important discussion on the impact of urban warfare on Gaza.
antoniosamp.bsky.social
It’s Friday and even before I finish work I got a treat: this dog sitting next to me in a cafe came to say hi several times. Why can’t life (and humans!) be as simple as dogs?
antoniosamp.bsky.social
Excavators are an integral part of current military activities in Gaza - the role of urban destruction for control of cities in current urban war is high (also seen in Syria by Assad regime).
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
Gazans Once Escaped To Rafah. Now Israel Is Razing It.
In the last few weeks, Israel has demolished extensive areas of Gaza’s southernmost city, Rafah.
www.nytimes.com
antoniosamp.bsky.social
The problem is not so much attacks on Maiduguri, but the insecurity of the myriad small and medium towns around it. They are all connected, and attacks in one sector or major road affect all of them. www.theguardian.com/world/2025/a...
Fears of Boko Haram comeback stir in Nigerian birthplace of Maiduguri
Threat from jihadists had widely been perceived to be extinguished, but recent clashes suggest otherwise
www.theguardian.com
antoniosamp.bsky.social
Wonderful rainbow on my way home today. London does have its weather wonders.
antoniosamp.bsky.social
I’m also happy to see States of Fragility has cited our GI-TOC reports examining organised crime activities linked to urbanisation, including infiltration into transport hubs, housing and land crimes and territorial control.

globalinitiative.net/initiatives/...
Cities & Illicit Economies | GI-TOC
Organized crime and illicit economies have a profound impact on urban governance and the security of the increasing share of the global population living in cities.
globalinitiative.net
antoniosamp.bsky.social
The @oecd-ocde.bsky.social States of Fragility 2025 report reflects the increasing global concern with urban insecurity.

It says rapid urbanisation requires urgent attention to security provision and offers opportunities for organised crime in cities.

www.oecd.org/en/publicati...
States of Fragility 2025
States of Fragility 2025 considers a world of shifting power dynamics, where the most severe impacts of crisis, conflict and instability converge in the 61 contexts identified with high and extreme fr...
www.oecd.org
antoniosamp.bsky.social
What better news could China get today than that the largest country in Latin America is deeply concerned about tariffs on its steel exports to the US? Brazil is a top exporter and the tariffs would be a watershed moment for the bilateral relationship.
oglobo.globo.com/economia/not...
Especialistas analisam ameaça de Trump de taxar aço: como fica o Brasil?
Presidente americano afirmou neste domingo que vai anunciar tarifas de 25% sobre aço e alumínio nesta segunda-feira; Brasil está entre os maiores fornecedores de aço para os EUA
oglobo.globo.com
antoniosamp.bsky.social
Urban areas are once again the frontlines of conflict in Sudan.

This means more fighting in densely inhabited areas, more urban infrastrucutre and housing that will have to be rebuilt and more displacement to other urban areas unprepared to cope. www.theguardian.com/world/2025/f...
Sudanese military reports sweeping gains in battle for capital
Army making rapid advances across the country and closing in on RSF-held Republican Palace in Khartoum
www.theguardian.com
antoniosamp.bsky.social
Of course, disruptive national actors (Russia) are still around. But many challenges, from climate to crime and terror, depend on development at local level. The drivers and impact of conflict, crime, terror and migration will worsen with US aid reduction.
antoniosamp.bsky.social
With so much attention paid to the grand halls of diplomacy and geopolitics, it’s easy to forget that security, peace and stability are largely locally-driven dynamics.
antoniosamp.bsky.social
Militaries have always been wary of operating in urban terrain due to ambushes and complexity. Drones do away with many of these fear, making them less reticent about striking cities.
Reposted by Antônio Sampaio
anneapplebaum.bsky.social
I suspect USAID is first because it's "foreign aid" and fewer Americans will object. But once the precedent is established, expect unilateral dismantling of domestic institutions too