Arpit Gupta
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arpitrage.bsky.social
Arpit Gupta
@arpitrage.bsky.social
Associate Professor of Finance, NYU Stern
Newsletter: arpitrage.substack.com
Website: arpitgupta.info
In the paper too, but you can see it here
January 14, 2026 at 11:03 PM
We have some evidence of that — remote workers tend to actually be lower productivity in their prior job, but are higher productivity at the remote firm, which is at least consistent with a good match
January 14, 2026 at 7:33 PM
That doesn’t fully address your question though; but I tend to agree firms will experiment and sort themselves
January 14, 2026 at 3:47 PM
The benefit we have in our design is while we measure GitHub productivity, we have variation across firms. Ie some firms have a lot of remote friendly workers; others do not, but both hire some coders.
January 14, 2026 at 3:46 PM
• Remote work helps to balance the geography of innovation. If startups can hire remote workers in a range of locations, we might see a broader dispersal of innovation and other activity across metros, rather than being concentrated in a handful of cities.

Feedback welcome!
January 14, 2026 at 2:40 PM
These results suggest:
• Remote work is challenging to pull off, with tradeoffs between labor market access and productivity. These tradeoffs are best managed by startups who gain a competitive edge against large firms (who are instead going RTO)
January 14, 2026 at 2:40 PM
This channel of increased scale accounts for about half of the impact of remote work on productivity. The benefits are seen in the productivity rate of new hires, and also seem to spillover to other workers because existing employees also benefit when new workers join.
January 14, 2026 at 2:40 PM
Why?

Hiring constraints. Startups once found it hard to compete with established incumbent firms with many offices

Remote startups increase job postings, hire more per posting, and scale faster. Remote large firms struggle with retention challenges of existing employees
January 14, 2026 at 2:40 PM
Our key finding is that remote critics and boosters both have a point. Remote work increases productivity for workers at *startups* while reducing it for incumbent firms

We instrument for remote work with pre-pandemic occupational suitability for identification
January 14, 2026 at 2:40 PM
Saw a red tailed hawk hunt a squirrel over Covid in Washington Square Park
January 4, 2026 at 4:26 PM
Reposted by Arpit Gupta
I like this post by @arpitrage.bsky.social as a starting point, there are also some more technical reports from the Tax Foundation on the 1986 depreciation changes just (just Google "1986 Tax Reform Act" and "housing") arpitrage.substack.com/p/unlock-a-h...
Unlock a Housing Boom through Depreciation Bonuses
How Financial Frictions are holding back Housing and Taxes can Help
arpitrage.substack.com
December 28, 2025 at 10:01 PM
Yes! That would be a very interesting extension.
December 22, 2025 at 6:38 PM