Arrie33
@arrie33.bsky.social
It could be a close call next year for Utley in that case. The voters not wanting no inductions would be the main driver of him getting inducted.
January 3, 2026 at 12:19 AM
It could be a close call next year for Utley in that case. The voters not wanting no inductions would be the main driver of him getting inducted.
Been looking at number of votes by ballot size.
Of those 69 ballots, Beltran/Jones have 68, Utley 62, Felix 59, rest in order of tracker %.
Other notes:
Wright is on a 1-vote and a 2-vote ballot, not on ballots with 3-5 votes. Beltran/Jones lap the field on small ballots (24/21 vs Utley with 9).
Of those 69 ballots, Beltran/Jones have 68, Utley 62, Felix 59, rest in order of tracker %.
Other notes:
Wright is on a 1-vote and a 2-vote ballot, not on ballots with 3-5 votes. Beltran/Jones lap the field on small ballots (24/21 vs Utley with 9).
January 3, 2026 at 12:12 AM
Been looking at number of votes by ballot size.
Of those 69 ballots, Beltran/Jones have 68, Utley 62, Felix 59, rest in order of tracker %.
Other notes:
Wright is on a 1-vote and a 2-vote ballot, not on ballots with 3-5 votes. Beltran/Jones lap the field on small ballots (24/21 vs Utley with 9).
Of those 69 ballots, Beltran/Jones have 68, Utley 62, Felix 59, rest in order of tracker %.
Other notes:
Wright is on a 1-vote and a 2-vote ballot, not on ballots with 3-5 votes. Beltran/Jones lap the field on small ballots (24/21 vs Utley with 9).
I believe 12.5% is the current estimation in Adam's flip rate model.
January 1, 2026 at 6:21 PM
I believe 12.5% is the current estimation in Adam's flip rate model.
Based on Sardell's projection of 57% at 100 ballots and the slight uptick, there is probably a 60% chance for Andruw at the moment.
January 1, 2026 at 3:50 PM
Based on Sardell's projection of 57% at 100 ballots and the slight uptick, there is probably a 60% chance for Andruw at the moment.
I dont feel like those are similar ballot classes at all, but we will see I guess. I just dont see the same push as there was for Walker and the PED effect is small, but not insignificant.
When you need to make up 47% in three years of voting, that will hurt.
When you need to make up 47% in three years of voting, that will hurt.
January 1, 2026 at 3:44 PM
I dont feel like those are similar ballot classes at all, but we will see I guess. I just dont see the same push as there was for Walker and the PED effect is small, but not insignificant.
When you need to make up 47% in three years of voting, that will hurt.
When you need to make up 47% in three years of voting, that will hurt.
Well, it's easier to jump from 40% to 60% than from 65% to 85%.
If you're able to get that high over the induction line, then you'd probably be pretty close already as small Hall voters don't change their mind all too often.
If you're able to get that high over the induction line, then you'd probably be pretty close already as small Hall voters don't change their mind all too often.
December 31, 2025 at 9:57 PM
Well, it's easier to jump from 40% to 60% than from 65% to 85%.
If you're able to get that high over the induction line, then you'd probably be pretty close already as small Hall voters don't change their mind all too often.
If you're able to get that high over the induction line, then you'd probably be pretty close already as small Hall voters don't change their mind all too often.
That is why Felix is getting votes unlike Santana, not because one has a superior case as a player.
December 31, 2025 at 2:25 AM
That is why Felix is getting votes unlike Santana, not because one has a superior case as a player.
It is just impossible to compare the two on their HOF vote totals. There is a case for over 20 guys on the left: Andruw is about to be HOFer #12 there and all others over 5% depend on your controversy tolerance.
On the right, I expect 6 will be HOFers with 2 others not making it due to PEDs.
On the right, I expect 6 will be HOFers with 2 others not making it due to PEDs.
December 31, 2025 at 2:25 AM
It is just impossible to compare the two on their HOF vote totals. There is a case for over 20 guys on the left: Andruw is about to be HOFer #12 there and all others over 5% depend on your controversy tolerance.
On the right, I expect 6 will be HOFers with 2 others not making it due to PEDs.
On the right, I expect 6 will be HOFers with 2 others not making it due to PEDs.
- With more space and with attention on Felix, the others get a similar 2nd look and start to gain votes too
For Felix, this is happening at a historic rate though. If he manages close to 50% of the final vote, it would be the greatest % increase ever.
For Felix, this is happening at a historic rate though. If he manages close to 50% of the final vote, it would be the greatest % increase ever.
December 31, 2025 at 2:05 AM
- With more space and with attention on Felix, the others get a similar 2nd look and start to gain votes too
For Felix, this is happening at a historic rate though. If he manages close to 50% of the final vote, it would be the greatest % increase ever.
For Felix, this is happening at a historic rate though. If he manages close to 50% of the final vote, it would be the greatest % increase ever.
- This higher than expected start puts voters on notice and more voters look at his case and compare it to the current era (past Kershaw, Scherzer, Greinke, Verlander and Sale, only Skenes/Skubal/Green will come close)
- Ichiro/CC/Wagner induction + no major debuts -> even quieter ballot
- Ichiro/CC/Wagner induction + no major debuts -> even quieter ballot
December 31, 2025 at 2:05 AM
- This higher than expected start puts voters on notice and more voters look at his case and compare it to the current era (past Kershaw, Scherzer, Greinke, Verlander and Sale, only Skenes/Skubal/Green will come close)
- Ichiro/CC/Wagner induction + no major debuts -> even quieter ballot
- Ichiro/CC/Wagner induction + no major debuts -> even quieter ballot
It looks much more like a SP re-evaluation wave. Pettite is jumping 20% as well, Hamels is starting strong and Buehrle is tracking for a +10%.
I believe this is happening:
- Felix entered on a quiet ballot (no Bonds et al) and inspired quite a few "lets see what his case is" votes -> 20% start
I believe this is happening:
- Felix entered on a quiet ballot (no Bonds et al) and inspired quite a few "lets see what his case is" votes -> 20% start
December 31, 2025 at 2:05 AM
It looks much more like a SP re-evaluation wave. Pettite is jumping 20% as well, Hamels is starting strong and Buehrle is tracking for a +10%.
I believe this is happening:
- Felix entered on a quiet ballot (no Bonds et al) and inspired quite a few "lets see what his case is" votes -> 20% start
I believe this is happening:
- Felix entered on a quiet ballot (no Bonds et al) and inspired quite a few "lets see what his case is" votes -> 20% start
Did not have space to mention, but I hope so too. Felix' rise towards induction should actually help with that chance.
The re-evaluation of SPs is already happening among BBWAA voters, but an induction (or getting close) would also help Santana's case on the Era Committee in 3 years.
The re-evaluation of SPs is already happening among BBWAA voters, but an induction (or getting close) would also help Santana's case on the Era Committee in 3 years.
December 31, 2025 at 1:55 AM
Did not have space to mention, but I hope so too. Felix' rise towards induction should actually help with that chance.
The re-evaluation of SPs is already happening among BBWAA voters, but an induction (or getting close) would also help Santana's case on the Era Committee in 3 years.
The re-evaluation of SPs is already happening among BBWAA voters, but an induction (or getting close) would also help Santana's case on the Era Committee in 3 years.
Both are worthy of induction, but Johan debuted on a ballot that had way too many deserving players getting votes and we are 8 years further in terms of discussion. Voters are realizing that not inducting Felix and company would mean inducting a SP every 10 yrs post Kershaw et al.
December 31, 2025 at 1:25 AM
Both are worthy of induction, but Johan debuted on a ballot that had way too many deserving players getting votes and we are 8 years further in terms of discussion. Voters are realizing that not inducting Felix and company would mean inducting a SP every 10 yrs post Kershaw et al.
He did not. He voted for all 10 (as he has done in all years of voting), but voted instead for Bonds, Clemens, Guerrero, Hoffmann, Chipper, Edgar, Mussina, Schilling, Thome and Walker.
Vizquel, Kent and Wagner are listed as would-be votes if not for the limit.
Vizquel, Kent and Wagner are listed as would-be votes if not for the limit.
December 31, 2025 at 1:01 AM
He did not. He voted for all 10 (as he has done in all years of voting), but voted instead for Bonds, Clemens, Guerrero, Hoffmann, Chipper, Edgar, Mussina, Schilling, Thome and Walker.
Vizquel, Kent and Wagner are listed as would-be votes if not for the limit.
Vizquel, Kent and Wagner are listed as would-be votes if not for the limit.
Beltran looks on track with this 8-9 point improvement on the pre-announcement.
Andruw has less to make up on the public post-announcement, but will still need a jump there or on private ballots to get in.
Andruw has less to make up on the public post-announcement, but will still need a jump there or on private ballots to get in.
December 30, 2025 at 3:19 PM
Beltran looks on track with this 8-9 point improvement on the pre-announcement.
Andruw has less to make up on the public post-announcement, but will still need a jump there or on private ballots to get in.
Andruw has less to make up on the public post-announcement, but will still need a jump there or on private ballots to get in.
Loved reading your explainer, hope it is the first of many excellent columns that take me down rabbit holes of other articles!
December 30, 2025 at 3:09 PM
Loved reading your explainer, hope it is the first of many excellent columns that take me down rabbit holes of other articles!
Why should they when all those old voters voted (most in majority) for Bonds (66%), Clemens (65%), McGwire, Sosa, Sheffield (64%)?
Why should they when the Veteran's Committee voted in the PED commissioner in Selig?
I wouldn't vote for A-Rod or Manny, but can't blame voters for doing so.
Why should they when the Veteran's Committee voted in the PED commissioner in Selig?
I wouldn't vote for A-Rod or Manny, but can't blame voters for doing so.
December 30, 2025 at 2:48 PM
Why should they when all those old voters voted (most in majority) for Bonds (66%), Clemens (65%), McGwire, Sosa, Sheffield (64%)?
Why should they when the Veteran's Committee voted in the PED commissioner in Selig?
I wouldn't vote for A-Rod or Manny, but can't blame voters for doing so.
Why should they when the Veteran's Committee voted in the PED commissioner in Selig?
I wouldn't vote for A-Rod or Manny, but can't blame voters for doing so.
Critical add for Hunter!
Just a note for the tracking team: the tracker seems to be down due to "too many requests".
Just a note for the tracking team: the tracker seems to be down due to "too many requests".
December 29, 2025 at 12:52 PM
Critical add for Hunter!
Just a note for the tracking team: the tracker seems to be down due to "too many requests".
Just a note for the tracking team: the tracker seems to be down due to "too many requests".
Last year the focus was on Ichiro, CC, getting Wagner and Beltran in. Felix was being compared to CC and to all the other pitchers who were directionless. Enough voters were inspired to get him to 20% and that great start likely got him a lot more re-evaluation.
So that penalty is 1 of many factors
So that penalty is 1 of many factors
December 28, 2025 at 9:59 PM
Last year the focus was on Ichiro, CC, getting Wagner and Beltran in. Felix was being compared to CC and to all the other pitchers who were directionless. Enough voters were inspired to get him to 20% and that great start likely got him a lot more re-evaluation.
So that penalty is 1 of many factors
So that penalty is 1 of many factors
What is the highest ever number of ballots on a single December day?
Massive day for Felix and Utley!
Massive day for Felix and Utley!
December 28, 2025 at 9:55 PM
What is the highest ever number of ballots on a single December day?
Massive day for Felix and Utley!
Massive day for Felix and Utley!
I dont feel like he is an inspiring case for such a climb. I feel like he would need to get to 55% this year to get close in his penultimate year where the ballot will be quiet once again. For me, 55% does not seem likely.
December 28, 2025 at 8:21 PM
I dont feel like he is an inspiring case for such a climb. I feel like he would need to get to 55% this year to get close in his penultimate year where the ballot will be quiet once again. For me, 55% does not seem likely.
Mostly because he was sharing the ballot with 9 players getting 50%+ each.
The other 10 players who stayed on the ballot were Walker, 4 eventual HOFers and 5 guys who were good enough to make it to the final year of HOF voting.
There is also not a massive campaign for his case going on for Pettitte
The other 10 players who stayed on the ballot were Walker, 4 eventual HOFers and 5 guys who were good enough to make it to the final year of HOF voting.
There is also not a massive campaign for his case going on for Pettitte
December 28, 2025 at 8:05 PM
Mostly because he was sharing the ballot with 9 players getting 50%+ each.
The other 10 players who stayed on the ballot were Walker, 4 eventual HOFers and 5 guys who were good enough to make it to the final year of HOF voting.
There is also not a massive campaign for his case going on for Pettitte
The other 10 players who stayed on the ballot were Walker, 4 eventual HOFers and 5 guys who were good enough to make it to the final year of HOF voting.
There is also not a massive campaign for his case going on for Pettitte
He currently has more votes than he had last year through 170 ballots!
December 28, 2025 at 5:29 PM
He currently has more votes than he had last year through 170 ballots!
It's rising after the line from 2025 had its peak, insanity how close to induction he is getting.
December 28, 2025 at 4:30 PM
It's rising after the line from 2025 had its peak, insanity how close to induction he is getting.