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Ángel Talavera @atalaveraecon.bsky.social · May 13

No one wants to feel their country has become a foreign land to their own. But also no one forced the UK to grant hundreds of thousands of visas per year after claiming they wanted to reduce net migration. And you need to offer serious alternatives to fill out jobs people don't want to do.

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Ángel Talavera @atalaveraecon.bsky.social · May 13

And to be perfectly clear, this is not a British issue. Spain is going through a similar process, when you have mass migration it's almost inevitable. But the challenges of migration should be addressed through proper policies, not through language that blames foreigners for the country's problems.

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Ángel Talavera @atalaveraecon.bsky.social · May 13

I haven't had any personal experience to say people are less welcoming, but we all know what follows when people in charge set the tone in these matters. Similarly after Brexit, some people were empowered to say things and a act towards foreigners that were not acceptable before.

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Ángel Talavera @atalaveraecon.bsky.social · May 13

Strange time to be celebrating 10 years in the UK, probably feeling less welcome than ever. I get that migration needs to be controlled and poses huge challenges, but this kind of language is a huge slippery slope that enables people's worst instincts towards "the other" to go fully unchecked.

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Ángel Talavera @atalaveraecon.bsky.social · May 9

I really wanted to give this place a shot given how bad X has turned, but sad to say it does feel very clicky from the outside, with the same few accounts bantering with each other over and over.

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Ángel Talavera @atalaveraecon.bsky.social · May 8

Newsflash: every young person eventually becomes older and uncool. Perhaps millenials thought they were different but they´re not. Neither are Gen Z, or anyone coming after.

Twlldun @twlldun.bsky.social · May 8

“Millennials” aren’t real, happy to help

www.theguardian.com/society/2025...

Cringe! How millennials became uncool

They are mocked by gen Z for everything from their trainer socks to their mom jeans and selfie technique. A maligned millennial asks: how did we get here?

www.theguardian.com

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Ángel Talavera @atalaveraecon.bsky.social · May 6

I was about to write "Barça has turned into a Real Madrid and I love it" but then Inter had to score, ugh

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Ángel Talavera @atalaveraecon.bsky.social · May 5

It was on TV just the other day! Naturally, when I came across it I had to watch that car chase through San Francisco for the 20th time.

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Ángel Talavera @atalaveraecon.bsky.social · Apr 30

Como veis todo esto son cálculos relativamente sencillos, pero es a día de hoy la única manera de producir un dato aproximado de manera tan rápida. La alternativa requeriría un estudio de actividad sector a sector que no es factible.

Ángel Talavera @atalaveraecon.bsky.social · Apr 30

Sumando todos estos factores positivos y negativos, personalmente creo impacto final sea menor a esos 1.125 millones iniciales. Como referencia, un 0,1% del PIB son 1.600 millones de euros, por lo que no espero gran impacto visible en las cifras de PIB.

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Ángel Talavera @atalaveraecon.bsky.social · Apr 30

La producción industrial en muchos se podrá recuperar total, o al menos parcialmente en los próximos meses. Pero el impacto en sectores será muy distinto, en función entre otras cosas de su intensidad energética.

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Ángel Talavera @atalaveraecon.bsky.social · Apr 30

Otros servicios como los profesionales sí serán recuperables en casi la totalidad (consultores, ya sabéis lo que os toca, pizzas a medianoche en la oficina).

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Ángel Talavera @atalaveraecon.bsky.social · Apr 30

Gastos relacionados con restauración probablemente se perderán casi todos. Nadie se tomará dos cafés al día siguiente para compensar el que no se tomó el día anterior. Igualmente gasto turístico de visitantes que se marchen del país.

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Ángel Talavera @atalaveraecon.bsky.social · Apr 30

Esa es la parte sencilla. La siguiente es estimar/adivinar cuanta de esa actividad se perderá completamente y cual se recuperará en el trimestre, además de posibles efectos de segunda ronda.

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Ángel Talavera @atalaveraecon.bsky.social · Apr 30

Para complicar más las cosas, no toda la actividad se recuperó completamente al día siguiente. Por ejemplo, problemas en el transporte suponen un impacto adicional sobre esos 1.125 millones iniciales.

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Ángel Talavera @atalaveraecon.bsky.social · Apr 30

Asumimos caída consumo eléctrico supone igual caída de actividad. Así pues, si el consumo cayó un 50% durante la mitad del día, eso nos daría una caída de actividad del 25%, es decir 1.125 millones.

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Ángel Talavera @atalaveraecon.bsky.social · Apr 30

El punto de partida es saber cuanto producimos en un día. El PIB diario español está en torno a los 4.500 millones de euros. A partir de esa cifra inicial empezamos a hacer cálculos.

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Ángel Talavera @atalaveraecon.bsky.social · Apr 30

La pregunta que todos nos hacen a los economistas es ¿cuánto va a costar el apagón? 🧵

Los primeros cálculos son todos muy aproximados, pero un pequeño hilo explicando la estructura que usamos para llegar a ellos.

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Ángel Talavera @atalaveraecon.bsky.social · Apr 28

Posted without comment.

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Ángel Talavera @atalaveraecon.bsky.social · Apr 23

Wouldn't it make it sense for England's national day to be a bank holiday? I don´t know, just a thought.

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Ángel Talavera @atalaveraecon.bsky.social · Apr 18

We're all in broad agreement about this, so naturally we'll have another inflation surge in Europe 😂

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Ángel Talavera @atalaveraecon.bsky.social · Apr 18

Dollar won't necessarily appreciate on rate differentials if markets start getting nervous about US chaotic economic policy, we are seeing this at play already.

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Ángel Talavera @atalaveraecon.bsky.social · Apr 17

I am in the North™️ and people are happily wearing shorts at 6 degrees because it's sunny and I wish I could go through life like that.

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Ángel Talavera @atalaveraecon.bsky.social · Apr 13

9 out of 10 times: "Excellent article by so and so on XYZ" = "article that quotes me on XYZ" 🤣

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Ángel Talavera @atalaveraecon.bsky.social · Apr 12

I knew its reputation but the deprivation is like nothing I've ever seen.

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