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Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️

@avnershlain.bsky.social

1.5K followers 510 following 200 posts

Assistant professor of Marketing @ChicagoBooth. Behavioral economist. PhD @BerkeleyEcon. Husband and father. Improv. www.AvnerShlain.com

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Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️ @avnershlain.bsky.social · Sep 22

**Introduction** #EconSky #BehEcon
~~~~~~~~~~~
I am an AP of marketing, a behavioral economist at Chicago Booth. Specifically, I study the behavioral economics of firms.
I love a good figure just as much as the other person, so let me introduce my research with some figures... 🧵

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Reposted by Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️

Journal of Public Economics @jpube.bsky.social · Aug 12

Just published in @jpube.bsky.social:

"Impacts of home-care subsidies: Evidence from quasi-random assignment"

By Yuval Ofek-Shanny, @avnershlain.bsky.social, & @dzeltzer.bsky.social

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

#econsky #publiceconomics

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Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️ @avnershlain.bsky.social · Mar 21

⛽ For an academic study, we (@akraft.bsky.social and I) wish to interview US Gas Station owners to learn more about their business practices. Please share or send anyone you know to Andreas or me. Thanks!

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Reposted by Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️

Whimsy Planning Commission @whimsypc.bsky.social · Mar 16

We'll be back at Jimmy's on Tuesday 3/25 and EVERY LAST TUESDAY OF THE MONTH! Come once and you'll come again.
@abionsky.bsky.social @williamhjhubbard.bsky.social @avnershlain.bsky.social @dfordon.bsky.social @elderserpiente.bsky.social

Whimsy Planning Commission announcing their improv show every last Tuesday of the month at Woodlawn Tap at 7:30pm

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Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️ @avnershlain.bsky.social · Mar 12

Thanks Neale!

Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️ @avnershlain.bsky.social · Mar 12

Thanks, Colin!

Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️ @avnershlain.bsky.social · Mar 12

I am very happy to share that I am being promoted to Associate Professor of Marketing at The University of Chicago Booth School of Business.
I am incredibly grateful for my family, and for my friends, coauthors, mentors, and colleagues who made it all possible. Excited for the years ahead!

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Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️ @avnershlain.bsky.social · Mar 10

No wonder retailers ignore left digit bias. Indoctrination against it starts in school!

Cc:
@justinsydnor.bsky.social @nicolacetera.bsky.social

A math question for 7th graders in Chicago Public Schools showing a linear relationship between cars odometers and price.

Decrease in average car price with discontinuities at 10k miles. From Lacetera Pope and Sydnor (2012)

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Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️ @avnershlain.bsky.social · Mar 8

My reaction to @cfcamerer.bsky.social as well ::blushing::
@annastansbury.bsky.social, your question is a core interest of mine and I have a couple of projects in the works on the topic. I would love to talk more if you’re interested.

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Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️ @avnershlain.bsky.social · Feb 8

And it is also crucial to note here that if the price list range or steps were different, the confused results would have been different. It just so happens that random answers => the four fold pattern.

Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️ @avnershlain.bsky.social · Feb 7

An instant hit paper claimed that "Decisions under Risk Are Decisions under Complexity".

Re-analysis shows no evidence in support of the claim, and perhaps even the opposite:
- The experimental design causes noise to generate the results.
- For non-confused participants risk != complexity.

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Reposted by Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️

Shengwu Li @shengwuli.bsky.social · Feb 7

🚨 Oprea (2024 AER) argued that prospect theory choice anomalies were not due to risk, but due to complexity-driven mistakes.

But this new analysis convinces me that Oprea (2024) is substantially wrong. In my opinion, the paper should be retracted.

George Wu @geowu.bsky.social · Feb 7

A new working paper with Daniel Banki, @urisohn.bsky.social and Robert Walatka, just submitted to SSRN.

The paper is comment on Ryan Oprea's recent AER paper.

The paper is processing, but you, my friends, get early entry.

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

Title Authors Abstract (Decision under Risk are Decisions Under Complexity: Comment)

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Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️ @avnershlain.bsky.social · Feb 5

In summary:

- Higher expectations increase goals (A) and performance (C).

- Goals reflect expectations but do not affect them (!B).

- Having a goal improves performance (D) but the level does not matter (!E).

Check the paper for more details and findings papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

This figure shows the relationships between expectations, goals, and performance that we test in this paper. Solid lines indicate
those that are supported by data, while dashed lines are not.

Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️ @avnershlain.bsky.social · Feb 5

How do goals & expectations affect what participants do?

Easy practice & simply setting a goal both improve performance.
Goal level itself matters less once expectations are set.

Participants care about the goal (see bunching), but only locally.

The figure plots regression-adjusted average performance across treatment groups. Coefficients and 95% confidence intervals
from Table 3 with the mean in the omitted treatment (Medium practice, Baseline Goal) added. On the left panel, we plot the effects of
Practice Difficulty assignment, and on the right the effects of Goal Elicitation treatments.

The figure plots the histogram of performance (number of tables solved) relative to the goal in the Baseline goal treatments. Data
are winsorized below at -25 and above at +25.

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Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️ @avnershlain.bsky.social · Feb 5

Do goals shape expectations? We find that expectations drive goal-setting.

Manipulating expectations changes goals, but tweaking goal difficulty doesn't significantly affect expectations.

The figure shows the regression-adjusted average expected probability of reaching the goal for the different treatments.
Coefficients and 95% confidence intervals from an OLS regression of the expected likelihood of reaching a goal on Practice Difficulty
and Goal Elicitation treatments, controlling for skill. Mean in the omitted treatment (Medium practice, Baseline Goal) added.

The figure plots the regression-adjusted average goals (dark circles) and median expected performance (light triangles) across
treatment groups. Coefficients and 95% confidence intervals from Table 2 with the mean in the omitted treatment (Medium practice,
Baseline Goal) added. On the left panel, we plot the effects of Practice Difficulty assignment, and on the right the effects of Goal Elicitation
treatments. For both outcomes, sample is limited to those who reported monotonic beliefs.

Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️ @avnershlain.bsky.social · Feb 5

What goals do people choose?
Participants typically set goals they expect to hit ~78% of the time. Few choose goals they think are less than 50% likely to be achieved.

The figure plots a histogram of the self-reported believed likelihood of reaching their goal across participants who set a goal in
the Baseline goal treatment.

Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️ @avnershlain.bsky.social · Feb 5

In this new working paper we use a real-effort experiment to study the relationship between self-set goals and expectations, and how they affect performance.
Do goals affect or reflect expectations? Do goals affect performance, conditional on expectations?

The figure illustrates the study design as a 3x4 between subject experiment. There are 3 Practice Difficulty arms which differ in
the last three tables practiced, cross randomized with 4 Goal Elicitation treatments.

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Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️ @avnershlain.bsky.social · Jan 27

Reassessment?
(Not a Netanyahu fan) but getting the four soldiers home and then standing grounds against violations was smart and fruitful.

www.haaretz.com/israel-news/...

Hamas bent to Israel's pressure to release hostages earlier as Gazans return north

***

www.haaretz.com

Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️ @avnershlain.bsky.social · Jan 26

An alternative is that they think it will not collapse and they are trying to show strength of sorts and exert as much psychological torture on Israelis.

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Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️ @avnershlain.bsky.social · Jan 26

Of course it’s not good. But if you were Israel and Hamas started violating the agreement ever so slightly but blatantly, what would you do?

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Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️ @avnershlain.bsky.social · Jan 25

As @joshtdean.bsky.social figured out — Nighshade is of no help here.

Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️ @avnershlain.bsky.social · Jan 24

At least the answer doesn't change

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Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️ @avnershlain.bsky.social · Jan 24

@aleximas.bsky.social referred me to Nightshade (nightshade.cs.uchicago.edu/whatis.html). Basically, if we find a good-for-its-time way to hide the instructions from AI, such as Nightshade, then can proceed.

Nightshade: Protecting Copyright

Since their arrival, generative AI models and their trainers have demonstrated their ability to download any online content for model training. For content owners and creators, few tools can prevent their content from being fed into a generative AI model against their will. Opt-out lists have been disregarded by model trainers in the past, and can be easily ignored with zero consequences. They are unverifiable and unenforceable, and those who violate opt-out lists and do-not-scrape directives can not be identified with high confidence.

nightshade.cs.uchicago.edu

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Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️ @avnershlain.bsky.social · Jan 24

I have so many responses but instead ::sigh::

Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️ @avnershlain.bsky.social · Jan 24

It’s better to combine losses 😬

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Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️ @avnershlain.bsky.social · Jan 24

The end of online experiments?

Tobias Werner @tfwerner.com · Jan 24

Just used Gemini Live to participate in a beh. experiment without even reading the instructions or speaking the language.

LLMs acting as participants on platforms like Prolific could pollute data meant to study humans. With OpenAI’s operator model, this issue is growing.

🎥👇
youtu.be/NujyGZSA7Hg

Participating in a behavioral experiment with Gemini Live

YouTube video by Tobias Werner

youtu.be

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