awprokop.bsky.social
Andrew Prokop
@awprokop.bsky.social
4.7K followers 180 following 200 posts
Senior Politics Correspondent, Vox
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awprokop.bsky.social
Andrew Prokop @awprokop.bsky.social · 1d
Another analysis from @perrybaconjr.bsky.social of Bari Weiss as the convener of a new political faction.

newrepublic.com/article/2014...
MAGA-Lite: What “Bari Weiss Conservatism” Is, and Why It’s Dangerous
The new CBS executive isn’t exactly MAGA. But her polite Trumpism will still help destroy America as we know it.
newrepublic.com
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awprokop.bsky.social
Andrew Prokop @awprokop.bsky.social · 1d
Genuine question, does Trump know who Bari Weiss is?

He's obviously not a Substack guy. Is she on Fox enough that he'd recognize her?
andycraig.bsky.social
Andy Craig @andycraig.bsky.social · 1d
There's no way to plausibly act like Paramount would be handing CBS News to Bari Weiss if Trump wasn't in power, and they're barely bothering to pretend otherwise.
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awprokop.bsky.social
Andrew Prokop @awprokop.bsky.social · 1d
In some ways the belief that the culture war stuff is all a fake grift and just a put-on for tax cuts is a comforting one.

But it's false, the reality is they really do loathe progressive elites for culture war reasons and hope to wrest societal institutions from their grasp. Which she's now doing!
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awprokop.bsky.social
Andrew Prokop @awprokop.bsky.social · 1d
It's actually very relevant and telling information that Bari Weiss says she's allies with the Federalist Society in a battle to save "the West" against (implicitly) the America-hating left.

She's not about lowering taxes and never has been!
dandrezner.bsky.social
Daniel Drezner @dandrezner.bsky.social · 1d
There’s a lot in Bari Weiss’ 2023 FedSoc speech that merits scrutiny but I think the Times did a disservice by closing with this quote — given what she says immediately after. fedsoc.org/commentary/f...
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Reposted by Andrew Prokop
ericcolumbus.bsky.social
Eric Columbus @ericcolumbus.bsky.social · 1d
Excellent, detailed @awprokop.bsky.social piece about new CBS News editor in chief Bari Weiss

www.vox.com/politics/463...
Why does Bari Weiss keep winning?
The “anti-woke” commentator quit the New York Times in protest 5 years ago. Now she’ll be CBS News’s top editor. How?
www.vox.com
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awprokop.bsky.social
Andrew Prokop @awprokop.bsky.social · 1d
Gift link: t.co/CpHUdGwATR
https://www.vox.com/politics/463751/bari-weiss-free-press-cbs-ellison-paramount?view_token=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiJ9.eyJpZCI6IjVTYjZobjUzUmoiLCJwIjoiL3BvbGl0aWNzLzQ2Mzc1MS9iYXJpLXdlaXNzLWZyZWUtcHJlc3MtY2Jz...
t.co
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awprokop.bsky.social
Andrew Prokop @awprokop.bsky.social · 1d
Bari Weiss is now pivoting to "I only care about good journalism," but in her past few years she's been a factional coalition merchant (cc @profhansnoel.bsky.social ) — she convened a new faction of the right, making common cause with Chris Rufo & others against the left

www.vox.com/politics/463...
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awprokop.bsky.social
Andrew Prokop @awprokop.bsky.social · 7d
How do you think the shutdown fight will end?

A.) Dems win significant concessions from Trump, deal to reopen
B.) Dems cave after a few days or weeks
C.) Dems cave before the end of this year
D.) GOP nukes filibuster, reopens gov't
E.) Gov't remains closed into next year
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awprokop.bsky.social
Andrew Prokop @awprokop.bsky.social · 8d
In 2018 I wrote up the cases for and against Senate Dems shutting down the government via filibuster (in this case their demand was a DACA deal).

They ended up doing it but caving after three days without success.

www.vox.com/policy-and-p...
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awprokop.bsky.social
Andrew Prokop @awprokop.bsky.social · 8d
If Rs continued the Oct 2013 shutdown past Nov 2014 I suspect it would have hurt them in those midterms.

Instead, they saw their polls had already plunged so they course-corrected by backing down.

Is the lesson from that "shutdowns don't matter" or "shutdowns are dangerous, better cave quickly?"
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awprokop.bsky.social
Andrew Prokop @awprokop.bsky.social · 8d
Well yes, but, all these shutdowns ended because the party shutting things down essentially caved after a few days or weeks, which allowed the news environment to move on to other things.
jonmladd.bsky.social
Jonathan Ladd @jonmladd.bsky.social · 8d
Simply very little evidence that any national congressional or presidential election has come out differently because of a government shutdown. You can't rule out there being no electoral effects whatsoever. Think about it. Are persuadable voters on election days ever thinking about past shutdowns?
jonmladd.bsky.social
Jonathan Ladd @jonmladd.bsky.social · 14d
Need to consider the long term. Likely no effect on long term political prospects at all. After the 1995 Gingrich shutdown, Republicans won 5 consecutive House elections and 2 of the next 3 presidential elections.
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awprokop.bsky.social
Andrew Prokop @awprokop.bsky.social · 25d
Not at all.

I'm saying "passing a status quo bill keeping the government open" is something very different, and much less bad, then "removing the main obstacle to them passing the crackdown on the left from Chris Rufo's wildest dreams"
awprokop.bsky.social
Andrew Prokop @awprokop.bsky.social · 25d
So you are unconcerned that, without the filibuster to constrain them, Trump and Senate Republicans would pass new laws interfering with elections or cracking down on the left?
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awprokop.bsky.social
Andrew Prokop @awprokop.bsky.social · 25d
People have been saying this for 8 years and it's still around.

Maybe it's demise is inevitable in the long term but I think this particular moment would be a particularly bad time for it to go away.
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awprokop.bsky.social
Andrew Prokop @awprokop.bsky.social · 25d
If a shutdown fight ends with Senate Rs eliminating the filibuster so they and Trump can pass whatever laws they want, do you think that would be a good outcome?
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awprokop.bsky.social
Andrew Prokop @awprokop.bsky.social · 25d
Senate Rs are currently fine with the status quo where Trump can't pass new partisan laws except in reconciliation.

However, if they think the status quo is making governance impossible — for instance, shutting down the government with no end in sight — they will face increasing pressure to act.
awprokop.bsky.social
Andrew Prokop @awprokop.bsky.social · 25d
The power is real. It is hugely constraining Trump's ability to pass new laws. That's why his entire agenda except the BBB is focused on the executive branch and vulnerable to court challenge.
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awprokop.bsky.social
Andrew Prokop @awprokop.bsky.social · 25d
Adding — gift link for non-subscribers! www.vox.com/politics/461...
Democrats are on the verge of a dangerous mistake
There’s one big guardrail left on Trump’s ambitions. Democrats are gearing up for a showdown that could destroy it.
www.vox.com
awprokop.bsky.social
Andrew Prokop @awprokop.bsky.social · 25d
That's why the argument for "shutting down the government to fight Trump's authoritarianism" very plausibly ends in "Trump assumes even more power as one of the last constraints on what he can do, the filibuster, is dispensed with."

More here: www.vox.com/politics/461...
Democrats are on the verge of a dangerous mistake
There’s one big guardrail left on Trump’s ambitions. Democrats are gearing up for a showdown that could destroy it.
www.vox.com
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awprokop.bsky.social
Andrew Prokop @awprokop.bsky.social · 25d
If Dems force a government shutdown that is viewed as illegitimate by Senate Rss — and actually stick to it, with no end in sight — then Senate Rs will come under increasing pressure from the right to end the filibuster.

That's the more likely way a prolonged shutdown ends than a Trump cave.
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awprokop.bsky.social
Andrew Prokop @awprokop.bsky.social · 25d
Trump has wanted the filibuster gone for 8 years and it's still here. Senate Rs prefer to keep it.

But if Senate Rs come to believe that Ds are abusing the filibuster to make governance impossible, they'll end it.
(As we saw this week with the nuclear option they're deploying on nominations.)
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awprokop.bsky.social
Andrew Prokop @awprokop.bsky.social · 25d
The anti-filibuster case also typically asserts that getting the filibuster is good for democracy because it will let the president and Congress enact their agenda, and voters will get to decide if they like it in the next election.

But what if they pass laws interfering with the next election?
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awprokop.bsky.social
Andrew Prokop @awprokop.bsky.social · 25d
There's a longtime talking point that ending the filibuster helps progressives more than conservatives because conservatives don't want to "do anything" with government except cut taxes.

Again, this thinking needs to be updated for what we've seen this year and the threat of authoritarian laws.
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awprokop.bsky.social
Andrew Prokop @awprokop.bsky.social · 25d
The progressive case against the filibuster was made in a different time, with the idea that the major problem in our politics was the president and Congress not having *enough* power to enact their agenda.

Thinking on this needs to be updated for the current situation.
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awprokop.bsky.social
Andrew Prokop @awprokop.bsky.social · 25d
Guardrail after guardrail constraining Trump has fallen away as he's tried to centralize power.

But the filibuster remains a powerful constraint on what he can do legislatively. That's why his agenda is so executive branch-focused (and vulnerable to legal challenge)
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