Babak
@babakrowshan.bsky.social
BoA GFMS' new record low for cash at 3.3% (from 3.7% in Nov). Also, 57% of fund managers expect the economy to cool while only 3% expect a recession - another record low.
December 27, 2025 at 2:22 AM
BoA GFMS' new record low for cash at 3.3% (from 3.7% in Nov). Also, 57% of fund managers expect the economy to cool while only 3% expect a recession - another record low.
Consumers often trim their holiday spending plans as the season progresses (+$40 in 11 of the 19 years since 2006)... However, this year’s midseason decline is the largest Gallup has recorded, surpassing the $185 drop seen during the 2008 global financial crisis.
data from Gallup
data from Gallup
December 16, 2025 at 7:08 PM
Consumers often trim their holiday spending plans as the season progresses (+$40 in 11 of the 19 years since 2006)... However, this year’s midseason decline is the largest Gallup has recorded, surpassing the $185 drop seen during the 2008 global financial crisis.
data from Gallup
data from Gallup
In 1998, Americans were asked what they thought life would be like in 2025. Among their predictions, 69% believed the U.S. would elect a Black president by 2025, and 66% expected a woman to be elected president. Many Americans (61%) also thought people would routinely live to be 100.
December 16, 2025 at 7:04 PM
In 1998, Americans were asked what they thought life would be like in 2025. Among their predictions, 69% believed the U.S. would elect a Black president by 2025, and 66% expected a woman to be elected president. Many Americans (61%) also thought people would routinely live to be 100.
No question that animal spirits are running wild again on Wall St - non-profitable tech has had another spectacular short term run (albeit around half of what we saw in the 2000's tech bubble).
chart from Leuthold Group
chart from Leuthold Group
December 16, 2025 at 3:14 PM
No question that animal spirits are running wild again on Wall St - non-profitable tech has had another spectacular short term run (albeit around half of what we saw in the 2000's tech bubble).
chart from Leuthold Group
chart from Leuthold Group
"bull-market tops often are relatively gradual affairs that take place over several months"
"Oct. 28, the HSNSI was at the 99.5th percentile of its historical distribution. On Nov. 12, the HSNSI was almost as high, at the 99.4th percentile."
www.marketwatch.com/story/goodby...
"Oct. 28, the HSNSI was at the 99.5th percentile of its historical distribution. On Nov. 12, the HSNSI was almost as high, at the 99.4th percentile."
www.marketwatch.com/story/goodby...
December 3, 2025 at 2:20 AM
"bull-market tops often are relatively gradual affairs that take place over several months"
"Oct. 28, the HSNSI was at the 99.5th percentile of its historical distribution. On Nov. 12, the HSNSI was almost as high, at the 99.4th percentile."
www.marketwatch.com/story/goodby...
"Oct. 28, the HSNSI was at the 99.5th percentile of its historical distribution. On Nov. 12, the HSNSI was almost as high, at the 99.4th percentile."
www.marketwatch.com/story/goodby...
Leuthold Group's Bellwether Advance Decline line has stalled while the market continues to make new highs:
October 11, 2025 at 2:04 AM
Leuthold Group's Bellwether Advance Decline line has stalled while the market continues to make new highs:
Anyone else notice that $VXN correlation to $NDX is at a historic extreme? quite rare, last time the correlation was this high was Nov 2021:
October 4, 2025 at 5:31 PM
Anyone else notice that $VXN correlation to $NDX is at a historic extreme? quite rare, last time the correlation was this high was Nov 2021:
Reposted by Babak
Bit of a disconnect.
September 2, 2025 at 1:54 PM
Bit of a disconnect.
Unfortunately, US political partisanship and tribalism has reduced the signal to noise in soft economic data:
news.gallup.com/poll/692045/...
news.gallup.com/poll/692045/...
September 2, 2025 at 8:49 PM
Unfortunately, US political partisanship and tribalism has reduced the signal to noise in soft economic data:
news.gallup.com/poll/692045/...
news.gallup.com/poll/692045/...
US corporate insiders have flipped from bullish in April to the most bearish in a decade, according to data from University of Michigan finance prof Nejat Seyhoun (only 11.1% of corp with insiders buying more shares than they're selling):
July 19, 2025 at 8:43 PM
US corporate insiders have flipped from bullish in April to the most bearish in a decade, according to data from University of Michigan finance prof Nejat Seyhoun (only 11.1% of corp with insiders buying more shares than they're selling):
Market timing newsletters are back to extreme optimism (Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index - HSNSI).
Surprisingly, the only asset class whose sentiment isn't excessively bullish is gold!
Surprisingly, the only asset class whose sentiment isn't excessively bullish is gold!
July 8, 2025 at 2:59 AM
Market timing newsletters are back to extreme optimism (Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index - HSNSI).
Surprisingly, the only asset class whose sentiment isn't excessively bullish is gold!
Surprisingly, the only asset class whose sentiment isn't excessively bullish is gold!
Leuthold Group:
"risk of a self-fulfilling confidence collapse remains elevated. In April, the Conference Board’s Consumer Expectations Index dropped to a level that’s been observed only once outside of a recession (mid-2011)."
"risk of a self-fulfilling confidence collapse remains elevated. In April, the Conference Board’s Consumer Expectations Index dropped to a level that’s been observed only once outside of a recession (mid-2011)."
May 30, 2025 at 5:45 PM
Leuthold Group:
"risk of a self-fulfilling confidence collapse remains elevated. In April, the Conference Board’s Consumer Expectations Index dropped to a level that’s been observed only once outside of a recession (mid-2011)."
"risk of a self-fulfilling confidence collapse remains elevated. In April, the Conference Board’s Consumer Expectations Index dropped to a level that’s been observed only once outside of a recession (mid-2011)."
Quilter: "the US is expected to have the worst returns, as voted for by 53% of respondents. Meanwhile, the EU led the way in expectations, with 44% saying it will have the best returns."
media.quilter.com/search/2025/...
media.quilter.com/search/2025/...
May 23, 2025 at 10:19 PM
Quilter: "the US is expected to have the worst returns, as voted for by 53% of respondents. Meanwhile, the EU led the way in expectations, with 44% saying it will have the best returns."
media.quilter.com/search/2025/...
media.quilter.com/search/2025/...
The options market (CBOE put/call ratios) did not indicate a level of fear that would be expected to be commensurate with the price decline (or other metrics that reflected fear) during the Trump tariff retracement. Now they are indicating complacency & optimism:
chart via Jonathan Krinsky at BTIG
chart via Jonathan Krinsky at BTIG
May 20, 2025 at 9:57 PM
The options market (CBOE put/call ratios) did not indicate a level of fear that would be expected to be commensurate with the price decline (or other metrics that reflected fear) during the Trump tariff retracement. Now they are indicating complacency & optimism:
chart via Jonathan Krinsky at BTIG
chart via Jonathan Krinsky at BTIG
Marci Shore, Timothy Snyder and Jason Stanley, all professors at Yale and experts in authoritarianism, explain why America is especially vulnerable to a democratic backsliding — and why they are leaving the United States to take up positions at the University of Toronto
We’re Experts in Fascism. We’re Leaving the U.S. | NYT Opinion
YouTube video by The New York Times
youtu.be
May 20, 2025 at 9:53 PM
Marci Shore, Timothy Snyder and Jason Stanley, all professors at Yale and experts in authoritarianism, explain why America is especially vulnerable to a democratic backsliding — and why they are leaving the United States to take up positions at the University of Toronto
The US exceptionalism trade has retraced briefly but remains at extreme historical levels, far above its 21st century avg of 51% and almost double the lows in early 1990s (MSCI US as % of MSCI ACWI mkt cap):
May 11, 2025 at 9:36 PM
The US exceptionalism trade has retraced briefly but remains at extreme historical levels, far above its 21st century avg of 51% and almost double the lows in early 1990s (MSCI US as % of MSCI ACWI mkt cap):
Newsletter market timers not skeptical of equity recovery: S&P 500 finished recovering its retracement losses from April 2nd on May 2nd but over same period Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Sentiment +64% pts (HSNSI +25% pts)
May 11, 2025 at 9:31 PM
Newsletter market timers not skeptical of equity recovery: S&P 500 finished recovering its retracement losses from April 2nd on May 2nd but over same period Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Sentiment +64% pts (HSNSI +25% pts)
Hope I'm wrong but shipping data feels like we're at the point in the Roadrunner cartoons where Wile E Coyote runs off a cliff hovering for a few seconds in mid-air before succumbing to gravity (pulling out a pithy sign from his back: "Tariff is the most beautiful word in the English language").
April 30, 2025 at 3:42 AM
Hope I'm wrong but shipping data feels like we're at the point in the Roadrunner cartoons where Wile E Coyote runs off a cliff hovering for a few seconds in mid-air before succumbing to gravity (pulling out a pithy sign from his back: "Tariff is the most beautiful word in the English language").
DB tracking proxy for outflows from US markets by tracking flows for US bond and equity ETFs domiciled outside US
April 29, 2025 at 10:13 PM
DB tracking proxy for outflows from US markets by tracking flows for US bond and equity ETFs domiciled outside US
Reposted by Babak
Full story on the arrest of Rev. William Barber and two others as they prayed in the U.S. Capitol today:
“Just as Jesus turned over the tables of the money changers, so we have to be willing to put our bodies on the line,” Barber told me after he was released. religionnews.com/2025/04/28/w...
“Just as Jesus turned over the tables of the money changers, so we have to be willing to put our bodies on the line,” Barber told me after he was released. religionnews.com/2025/04/28/w...
Rev. William Barber arrested in Capitol Rotunda after praying against Republican-led budget
(RNS) — While arrests of protesters at the Capitol is not unusual, the response to Barber’s prayer was unusually dramatic: After issuing verbal warnings, dozens of officers expelled everyone in the Ro...
religionnews.com
April 28, 2025 at 9:59 PM
Full story on the arrest of Rev. William Barber and two others as they prayed in the U.S. Capitol today:
“Just as Jesus turned over the tables of the money changers, so we have to be willing to put our bodies on the line,” Barber told me after he was released. religionnews.com/2025/04/28/w...
“Just as Jesus turned over the tables of the money changers, so we have to be willing to put our bodies on the line,” Barber told me after he was released. religionnews.com/2025/04/28/w...
Brian Klaas: "When we navigate our world, we tend to have what I call the mirage of regularity. And it's very easy to be seduced by this because the world does seem really stable."
Your life is at the mercy of seemingly random tiny events
"It's a true fact, but a bizarre one, that the reason why hundreds of thousands of people died in Hiroshima and Nagasaki rather than Kyoto and Kokura, is because of a 19-year-old vacation and a passin...
bigthink.com
April 29, 2025 at 1:58 AM
Brian Klaas: "When we navigate our world, we tend to have what I call the mirage of regularity. And it's very easy to be seduced by this because the world does seem really stable."
Reposted by Babak
So basically, there was a Signal chat with tech folks and some Harpers Letter writers, and the Harpers folk were chased out when Andreessen realized they would not go along with censorship. But the tech guys stuck with Chris Rufo. www.semafor.com/article/04/2...
April 28, 2025 at 2:47 AM
So basically, there was a Signal chat with tech folks and some Harpers Letter writers, and the Harpers folk were chased out when Andreessen realized they would not go along with censorship. But the tech guys stuck with Chris Rufo. www.semafor.com/article/04/2...
The foundational building block of any society/economy is power generation capacity and its cost structure.
Low cost and available energy flows into the economy making everything cheaper, efficient, abundant and accessible.
Low cost and available energy flows into the economy making everything cheaper, efficient, abundant and accessible.
April 28, 2025 at 9:25 PM
The foundational building block of any society/economy is power generation capacity and its cost structure.
Low cost and available energy flows into the economy making everything cheaper, efficient, abundant and accessible.
Low cost and available energy flows into the economy making everything cheaper, efficient, abundant and accessible.
FreightWaves CEO Craig Fuller: "People bring me out when there's a crisis. People don't often think about the supply chain unless there's something breaking. We're looking at similar conditions to what we saw in early COVID"
FreightWaves CEO: There's been a 'collapse' of outbound freight from China into the United States
YouTube video by CNBC Television
www.youtube.com
April 28, 2025 at 9:13 PM
FreightWaves CEO Craig Fuller: "People bring me out when there's a crisis. People don't often think about the supply chain unless there's something breaking. We're looking at similar conditions to what we saw in early COVID"
Watch Ray Dalio's embarrassing desperate equivocation about Trump's insane tariffs as he tries to do everything he can to dance around their disastrous effects. He knows better but he will not be honest about it.
‘Self-inflicted wound’ in Trump’s tariffs, ‘The Economist’ editor warns
YouTube video by CNN
youtu.be
April 28, 2025 at 8:55 PM
Watch Ray Dalio's embarrassing desperate equivocation about Trump's insane tariffs as he tries to do everything he can to dance around their disastrous effects. He knows better but he will not be honest about it.