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Ballot Box Scotland

@ballotbox.scot

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Scottish elections and polling data. Not my polls. OG 'Britain Elects but Scottish'. PR fan account. Trans rights are human rights. Donate; http://liberapay.com/ballotboxscot

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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · Aug 7

The Ballot Box Scotland Holyrood Hub page for the 2026 Scottish Election is now live; with all you need to know about stuff like boundary changes and MSPs standing down/deselected. As the big day approaches, check back regularly for the latest polling and analysis. ballotbox.scot/scottish-par...

Holyrood Hub: Scottish Parliament Election 2026

Ballot Box Scotland’s full coverage ahead of the May 2026 Scottish Parliament Election.

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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 2d

By-Election Preview: Buckhaven, Methil and Wemyss Villages (Fife) 6th of November 2025

Another by-election in criminally grim conditions, Labour's chances of beating the SNP may hinge on just how much transfer-unwilling Reform voters eat into their share

By-Election Preview: Buckhaven, Methil and Wemyss Villages (Fife) 6th of November 2025

Another by-election in criminally grim conditions, Labour's chances of beating the SNP may hinge on just how much transfer-unwilling Reform voters eat into their share.

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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 2d

Four classic Westminster parties, plus new(er)comers Reform, plus Alba and Sovereignty from the fringes for the Buckhaven, Methil and Wemyss Villages by-election; no Green although they'd contested the past two full elections in the ward.

Infographic with by-election details. Candidates are Sovereignty Kieran Anderson, SNP Anne Marie Caldwell, Reform UK Mark Davies, Labour Donna Donnelly, Conservative Brian Mills, Lib Dem Jill Reilly, Alba Christine Watson

Vacating is Independent, 2024 By-Election winner is SNP, runner-up Labour, margin of 5.5%. Prediction is SNP-Labour Tossup.

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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 3d

He's always stood for a constituency, which is immaterial as he is legitimately elected to represent Conservative voters via PR, which is the kind of thing one might learn if one applies as much time to checking any sources of electoral data - not least my own website - as they do to nicknaming.

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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 3d

Indeed by my count (been a couple days since I last updated my list), the Conservatives are two-thirds done selections: 50 of 73 constituencies picked. Labour are on 47, but picked Anas Sarwar for one *in December*, Lib Dems only announced 17 and Alex Cole-Hamilton was basically first. This is odd!

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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 3d

Broadly that they align with what I'd expect based on everything in here; we've been over-supplied with urban by-elections lately, but what we see in those is Reform doing better in suburban and small town ones, less well in city ones, and within both categories, doing better in more deprived areas

Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 3d

And a topical re-share, given he got to his feet at Conservative Conference today for his speech, for my piece a few weeks ago: we're about five weeks on since I wrote this, and Russell Findlay is still the only Scottish Conservative MSP without a constituency.

ballotbox.scot/tale-of-two-...

Man, early 50's, seeks safe seat
Worst of all, it could not be more obvious that Findlay is in fear of losing his seat. When Simpson defected, he was one of only two Conservative MSPs (who hadn’t announced retirement) that hadn’t yet been selected for a constituency. This seems like a clear snub in his case. The other? Findlay himself.

If you are staggering your selections and your party leader isn’t in an early tranche, it’s a sure sign you’re worried about finding him a winnable spot. I’ve noted previously that there is a – narrow, but credible – window in which the Conservatives hold Carlaw’s Eastwood constituency but are only due one MSP overall in West, Findlay’s current region. Thus, Findlay would be out.

I’m told he actually lives in Glasgow, but the party are not just guaranteed to lose their second MSP but quite possibly going to lose both. Neighbouring regions also don’t seem like an option. South is akin to West in that if they hold their constituencies, there’ll be no list MSPs. Central would entail elbowing out a young woman MSP, which is a dire look. And how would a shift to Highlands and Islands look at all credible?

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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 3d

Another wee push for yesterday's analysis piece; if for some reason the inadvertently candy floss coloured map doesn't draw you in, there is a TL;DR version here, but if you do just read this screengrab you won't see my bit about Anas Sarwar's nightmares or a mildly spiced take on radicalisation.

1. Reform have absolutely devoured the Conservative’s 2021 support. This makes up by far the biggest portion of their voter base with reference to 2021, and combined with specific local reasons leads to especially strong backing in Banffshire, Buchan and Galloway.
2. Having effectively lost their entire gain in support compared to 2019 (and 2021), Labour’s voters are narrowly the biggest portion of Reform’s voter base with reference to 2024. This will reflect some 2021 Conservative to 2024 Labour to 2026 Reform movement. This is being seen most strongly in the mid-Central Belt, where Labour were historically highly successful.
3. Compared to the rest of the UK, where Labour’s losses are seemingly going 2-to-1 to broadly left wing parties versus right wing parties, in Scotland the two destinations are statistically tied. This is likely to reflect ongoing constitutional polarisation with a side helping of radicalisation, which isn’t unique to Scotland but has unique Scottish dimensions.
4. The SNP have lost relatively few of their 2021 voters base to Reform, but given how many voters they had at that election, they make up a sizeable chunk of Reform’s support. However, the past tense there is crucial. They are losing almost none of their 2024 support in that direction. That is made up for by 2024 Labour voters turning (or returning) to the SNP.
5. In general, the Lib Dems are not contributing much of the Reform vote regardless of what election you compare with. However, as a proportion of their own voter base, past Lib Dem voters are more likely than past SNP voters to vote for Reform. Overall, Reform support can therefore be said to be drawn overwhelmingly from the Pro-Union camp.

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Reposted by Ballot Box Scotland

Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 4d

SP26: Where are Reform's votes coming from?

A longer read for the weekend, taking a look at the rise of Reform. If you're the Conservatives or Labour, this isn't good news. The SNP meanwhile lose few voters and benefit from the split elsewhere.

SP26: Where are Reform’s votes coming from?

With Reform on the rise, how has that affected other parties? In short, Reform are lapping up the 2021 Conservative and 2024 Labour votes, but barely registering amongst past SNP voters.

ballotbox.scot

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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 4d

Meanwhile, if we turn to the geography of Reform support, 2024 largely bears out what the BBS model thinks for next year: Reform hotspots are Banff, Buchan, Galloway, and the mid-Central Belt. Weaker spots are in Glasgow, Edinburgh and East Dunbartonshire.

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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 4d

If we look at this as a proportion of Reform's actual vote, SNP are a fair chunk vs 2021 just because "few voters out of a pool of many" is still quite a lot. They are the smallest contribution vs 2024 though, with almost a third of Reform's support coming from recent Labour voters.

Chart showing source of Reform's polled votes vs 2021 Holyrood constituency vote. In percentage terms, Conservative 38.5, Labour 19.4, SNP 14.3, Lib Dem 5.6, Other and New Voters 22.2.

Chart showing source of Reform's polled votes vs 2024 General Election vote. In percentage terms, Labour 32.5, Reform 28.2, Conservative 18.9, Lib Dem 5.8, SNP 5.3, Other/New Voters 9.3

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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 4d

Based on September's Scottish polling, the short answer is: the Pro-Union parties. Relative to 2021, the Conservatives especially suffer, only keeping 50% of their vote vs 40% going to Reform. Vs 2024 though, and it's Labour losing half their votes. SNP lost relatively few vs 2021 and less vs 2024.

Chart showing the shift in Polled Constituency Vote vs 2021 Constituency Vote, according to recent Survation and Norstat polls. In percentage terms, SNP retain 77.7 of their vote, and just 7.2 goes to Reform. The Conservatives retain 49.4 and lose 40.4 to Reform. Labour retain 65.0 and lose 18.5 to Reform. Lib Dems retain 73.3 and lose 14.3 to Reform.

Chart showing the shift in Polled Constituency Vote vs 2024 General Election Vote, according to recent More in Common, Survation and Norstat polls. In percentage terms, SNP retain 89.5 of their vote, and just 3.3 goes to Reform. The Conservatives retain 64.6 and lose 24.5 to Reform. Labour retain 48.9 and lose 18.1 to Reform. Lib Dems retain 70.7 and lose 12.4 to Reform. Reform retain 86.0 and lose 8.1 5o Conservatives.

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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 4d

SP26: Where are Reform’s votes coming from?

With Reform on the rise, how has that affected other parties? In short, Reform are lapping up the 2021 Conservative and 2024 Labour votes, but barely registering amongst past SNP voters.

ballotbox.scot

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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 7d

Preparing a little something for this weekend's next pre-SP26 analysis piece...

A stacked barchart showing figures for the SNP, Conservatives, Labour, Lib Dems, and Reform UK. For all parties, the largest part of the stacked bar is their own party colour, though the Pro-Union parties have notably large Reform UK Teal segments, and Labour's own part of their bar is clearly smaller than every other party's.

A pie chart showing proportions of something secret; Labour are the largest proportion, ahead slightly of Reform UK, with the Conservatives also significant. The SNP and Lib Dems only contribute a small proportion.

A map of Scotland with UK Parliament constituencies mapped on a colour gradient from deep pink through white to dark teal green. The darkest teal tints are in the north east and south west of Scotland, as well as the middle of the Central Belt. The darkest pink tints are around Edinburgh and Glasgow.

A map of Scotland with Scottish Parliament constituencies mapped on a colour gradient from deep pink through white to dark teal green. The darkest teal tints are in the north east and south of Scotland. The darkest pink tints are around Edinburgh and Glasgow.

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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 7d

Poll Analysis: Norstat 22nd - 25th of September 2025

Holyrood Seat Projection:
SNP ~ 63
Reform UK ~ 20
Labour ~ 19
Conservative ~ 12
Lib Dem ~ 9
Green ~ 6

Independence:
Yes ~ 53%
No ~ 47%

Poll Analysis: Norstat 22nd – 25th of September 2025

Another poll with continued SNP constituency dominance has them within touching distance of a proportionally unearned majority, and Yes remains in the lead.

ballotbox.scot

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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 8d

By-Election Preview: Stirling East (Stirling) 30th of October 2025

The SNP won a by-election here last year so seem likely favourites. They'd then have every councillor in the ward, and potentially flip the administration; real oddities of by-elections.

By-Election Preview: Stirling East (Stirling) 30th of October 2025

As Labour are floundering and the SNP won a by-election here last year, the SNP seem likely favourites. A win would give them every councillor in the ward, and potentially flip the administration; real oddities of by-elections under STV.

ballotbox.scot

Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 8d

BBS was still finding its feet in 2021, but this election's leaflets are going to go from "it is I, Respected Scottish elections expert 💅" to "Not another one!" quite quickly aren't they? (I'd quibble that 2022 locals chart should be 29% and 25% but as Lib Dem Bar Charts go this one isn't egregious)

A photograph of a leaflet from Sanne Dijkstra-Downie, the Lib Dem candidate for Edinburgh Northern in 2026. There is a highlighted section reading:

"The independent elections website Ballot Box Scotland has already predicted a Lib Dem gain from the SNP. Respected Scottish elections expert, Allan Faulds said of the new constituency 'I expect this to go their way.'"

Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 8d

New Scottish Independence poll, Norstat 22-25 Sep (changes vs 27-30 May):

Yes ~ 50% (nc)
No ~ 44% (+1)
Don't Know ~ 6% (nc)

Excluding Don't Knows (/ vs 2014):
Yes ~ 53% (-1 / +8)
No ~ 47% (+1 / -8)

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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 8d

Just the six major parties for Stirling East in a month's time, no fringe parties, no Independents, all very normal.

Infographic with by-election details. Candidates are Conservative James Corbett, Labour Yvonne Dickson, Reform William Docherty, SNP Josh Fyvie, Lib Dem William Galloway, Green Marie Stadtler

Vacating is Conservative, 2024 By-Election winner is SNP, runner-up Labour, margin of 7.4%. Prediction is Likely SNP.

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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 9d

Highland Council is apparently the anti-Crown: there must always be a vacancy. Following last week's double bill of by-elections, we've got yet another one coming up in Fort William and Ardnamurchan as SNP councillor Sarah Fanet is resigning. This will be the *11th* Highland by-election this term!

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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 10d

By-Election Result: Caol and Mallaig (2025)

A ward that didn't even get to vote in 2022 finally has a say over its current crop of councillors, picking a new Independent over one that had previously had a go.

By-Election Result: Caol and Mallaig (2025)

A ward that didn't even get to vote in 2022 finally has a say over its current crop of councillors, picking a new Independent over one that had previously had a go.

ballotbox.scot

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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 10d

When I say the Conservatives have collapsed in Galloway specifically, they elected 7 councillors across the area in 2022, with an 8th at a by-election; they now have 3. Have to assume that'll really damage their local support and ground campaign capacity. bsky.app/profile/ball...

Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · Jun 2

More information on goings on in D&G here - it's not quite South Ayrshire in that it doesn't seem to be as personally vitriolic but it's wild times out there: www.itv.com/news/border/...

www.itv.com

Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 10d

I'd also expect this to be somewhere that Reform really rip the Conservative vote to shreds. Problem for Reform is they are transfer toxic; that's a problem for the Conservatives too, and for the SNP in an area where Conservatives may still be the biggest other "established" party. Chaos!

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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 10d

Stranraer and the Rhins by-election set for the 20th of November. Conservatives had a big lead here in 2022, beating the SNP 49.4% to 32.4% after transfers, but they have collapsed nationally and specifically in Galloway: their two councillors quit and now form part of the "Novantae" grouping.

Chart of first preferences in 2022. In percentage terms Conservative 40.2, SNP 23.3, Independent Scobie 22.8, Labour 9.9, Green 2.6, Independent Sloan 1.3

Chart of transfers in the ward in 2022, re-calculated for a single winner. In percentage terms at final head to head stage, Conservative 49.4, SNP 32.4, Didn't Transfer 18.2

Map of the ward with polling districts coloured by lead party in 2022. The Conservatives led in every district including those in Stranraer itself, Cairnryan, Kirkcolm, Portpatrick, Sandhead and Drummore.

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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 10d

They didn't get very many votes but (what were then) fringe Right-Union parties stood nationwide in 2021 for the list, so I'm using that as a distribution baseline.

Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 10d

New Scotland Only Westminster poll, Norstat 22-25 Sep (changes vs 27-30 May):

SNP ~ 31% (nc)
RUK ~ 23% (+2)
Lab ~ 18% (-2)
Con ~ 11% (-1)
LD ~ 9% (+1)
Grn ~ 7% (nc)

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