Found these odds on metaculus:

The percentage chance Donald Trump remains defacto president beyond 20th Jan 2028 is 7%.

Source: www.metaculus.com/questions/20...

There's a tonne of this merchandise on Etsy. Sadly you have to buy it to review it otherwise I'd be giving appropriate warnings re it's effect on democracy.

Any speculation/well informed opinion on the cause?

Rather than cutting disablity benefits the government should pour money into research into ME/CFS/Long COVID. If they could find a cure (even a partial one) it that would do wonders for the economy, rather than causing untold misery with no benefit to the economy.

Just dabbling my toes for the moment.