Ryan J. McComb
@bayespr.bsky.social
Maker of http://IL9.org 🚀📈 538er at heart. Forecasting nerd? #IL09 enthusiast
thanks man!!! hope you enjoy, its a pretty lean machine!
February 12, 2026 at 12:54 AM
thanks man!!! hope you enjoy, its a pretty lean machine!
Yes, this trend I saw was based off of her surprising support with "very liberals" who we thought as higher propensity in the model.
February 8, 2026 at 7:12 PM
Yes, this trend I saw was based off of her surprising support with "very liberals" who we thought as higher propensity in the model.
why? I’m interested.
February 8, 2026 at 6:39 PM
why? I’m interested.
I wish there was data as granular, but no dice finding anything so far.
February 8, 2026 at 4:55 AM
I wish there was data as granular, but no dice finding anything so far.
**BTW, I don’t have an active ACCT (as it is illegal). This was someone’s account that I used to take a screenshot while out at dinner.**
February 8, 2026 at 2:50 AM
**BTW, I don’t have an active ACCT (as it is illegal). This was someone’s account that I used to take a screenshot while out at dinner.**
We also increased the weight given to the midpoint and Order-Book weighted aspects, resulting in a significantly more accurate overall perspective on the race. This is IL9.org at its best!!!
IL9Cast - Illinois 9th District Democratic Primary 2026 Forecast
Live prediction market aggregation for Illinois 9th District Democratic Primary. Real-time odds updated every 3 minutes from Manifold Markets and Kalshi.
IL9.org
February 8, 2026 at 2:44 AM
We also increased the weight given to the midpoint and Order-Book weighted aspects, resulting in a significantly more accurate overall perspective on the race. This is IL9.org at its best!!!
this has like become the unofficial thread of IL-09 forecasting and data, I love it :)
February 8, 2026 at 12:12 AM
this has like become the unofficial thread of IL-09 forecasting and data, I love it :)
Sick stuff, if you wouldn’t mind, could you share the methodology you used? I would love to be so enlightened :)
February 7, 2026 at 11:19 PM
Sick stuff, if you wouldn’t mind, could you share the methodology you used? I would love to be so enlightened :)
Yes, when I was originally trying to build a model I was gonna use data from the 2022 IL-1 race which was a quite similar
February 7, 2026 at 8:12 PM
Yes, when I was originally trying to build a model I was gonna use data from the 2022 IL-1 race which was a quite similar
Reposted by Ryan J. McComb
This district’s primaries have had maybe two competitive races since my grandparents were born… and none in my lifetime, or almost two of my lifetimes, for that matter.
Two people — Yates and Schakowsky, have represented this seat for 97.5% of the time since 1949.
(there was a small break in 63’)
Two people — Yates and Schakowsky, have represented this seat for 97.5% of the time since 1949.
(there was a small break in 63’)
February 7, 2026 at 8:11 PM
This district’s primaries have had maybe two competitive races since my grandparents were born… and none in my lifetime, or almost two of my lifetimes, for that matter.
Two people — Yates and Schakowsky, have represented this seat for 97.5% of the time since 1949.
(there was a small break in 63’)
Two people — Yates and Schakowsky, have represented this seat for 97.5% of the time since 1949.
(there was a small break in 63’)
This district’s primaries have had maybe two competitive races since my grandparents were born… and none in my lifetime, or almost two of my lifetimes, for that matter.
Two people — Yates and Schakowsky, have represented this seat for 97.5% of the time since 1949.
(there was a small break in 63’)
Two people — Yates and Schakowsky, have represented this seat for 97.5% of the time since 1949.
(there was a small break in 63’)
February 7, 2026 at 8:11 PM
This district’s primaries have had maybe two competitive races since my grandparents were born… and none in my lifetime, or almost two of my lifetimes, for that matter.
Two people — Yates and Schakowsky, have represented this seat for 97.5% of the time since 1949.
(there was a small break in 63’)
Two people — Yates and Schakowsky, have represented this seat for 97.5% of the time since 1949.
(there was a small break in 63’)
Thanks!! No offense taken :)
February 7, 2026 at 7:55 PM
Thanks!! No offense taken :)
I genuinely hope we get more, but I am doubtful of more than one more high-quality poll. Also, no one has any clue what this district will look like (from a turnout by precinct perspective) bc it’s been so horribly boring and uncompetitive.
February 7, 2026 at 7:54 PM
I genuinely hope we get more, but I am doubtful of more than one more high-quality poll. Also, no one has any clue what this district will look like (from a turnout by precinct perspective) bc it’s been so horribly boring and uncompetitive.
I understand. #NJ11 markets were criminally overpriced, even on election night. However, the polling for this race has been Sh** other than the DFP poll that had crosstabs, but that was so long ago it’s not useful anymore.
February 7, 2026 at 7:52 PM
I understand. #NJ11 markets were criminally overpriced, even on election night. However, the polling for this race has been Sh** other than the DFP poll that had crosstabs, but that was so long ago it’s not useful anymore.
manifold.markets?r=SmVyb21lSF... here's a link if you want, or I could make the market. Tbh, it’s a very niche thing, so open interest might be low if you or I make one.
Manifold
Manifold is a social prediction game. Bet on news, politics, tech, & AI with play money. Or create your own prediction market.
manifold.markets
February 7, 2026 at 7:38 PM
manifold.markets?r=SmVyb21lSF... here's a link if you want, or I could make the market. Tbh, it’s a very niche thing, so open interest might be low if you or I make one.