Projections indicate that rising ocean temperatures could offset anticipated gains in global mangrove restoration by 2100, resulting in significant ecosystem and economic losses, especially in Asia. doi.org/g92dsh

About 150,000 hectares (580 sq. mi.) of mangrove ecosystems, vital for coastal protection, habitat creation, carbon storage, and water quality, will be lost by the end of the century due to #climatechange, with Asia bearing nearly two-thirds of these losses.
oceanographicmagazine.com/news/warming...

Figures looked weird, so sharing again!

Press Release here: scripps.ucsd.edu/news/ocean-w...

By 2100, foregone benefits = 28B USD/year.
But uneven:

Asia 64% of losses

Middle East and Africa 18%

LatAm & Caribbean 12%

OECD 3%

Climate damages ecosystems broadly, but people don’t bear losses equally.

Together:
🌍 Socioeconomics push toward recovery.
🔥 Warming oceans stall or reverse progress.

Without climate change, mangroves could recover to global restoration targets. With warming, we lose ~150,000 ha by 2100.

Temperature matters too.

Warming helps colder sites expand. But beyond a threshold, heat damages dominate.

We identified sea surface temp of the hottest month (SSTh) as the strongest signal.

This Figure shows the marginal effect of both drivers

We find a Kuznets-like pattern: at low GDP, mangroves are often lost (deforestation/land-use change). Beyond a development threshold, protection strengthens and mangrove cover recovers. Socioeconomic growth can support conservation—but only after that threshold is crossed.

Mangroves protect coasts, store carbon & sustain fisheries. Using global data (1996–2020), we mapped mangrove extent & tracked how it responds to climate & socioeconomic drivers. Each point = 1° grid cell with mangroves.

New paper out! We looked at how warming oceans & socioeconomic change shape the future of mangroves worldwide. @ioppublishing.bsky.social

TLDR: Climate change could stall restoration efforts & deepen global inequalities.

Paper: iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...

I'm pleased to announce our newest paper published at Scientific Data, where we establish a framework for generating fast, custom SRM scenarios. This will allow us to develop probabilístic regional and global impact studies of geoengineering interventions.

www.nature.com/articles/s41...

After months held up in customs, @paulkelleher.net 's book finally made it to me. Now riding along with me on the Mexico City metro.

Claim: "Water vapor is a greenhouse gas!"
Reality: Yes, and there's more of it in a warmer atmosphere

-"CO2 is plant food!"
-pretty hard to eat when you're on fire

-"Climate has changed before!"
-We know, we told you that

-"Scientists don't know everything!"
- doesn't mean we know *nothing*

New paper!

Polycrisis isn’t a series of mistakes — it’s a tangled web of crises we navigate through increasingly rough terrain.

www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Polycrisis isn’t a series of mistakes — it’s a tangled web of crises we navigate through increasingly rough terrain.
In this study, we compile a global database and analyze the co-occurrence of shocks, the building blocks of crisis, from 1970 to today.

www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Very happy to be an AERE Scholar this year! I'm looking forward to contributing meaningfully to the field.

Call for abstracts! The Beijer Young Scholars are convening a session at #AGU25: "Advances in Modeling and Governing Interacting Shocks in the Anthropocene". Submit by July 30! 🌍⚡

📍New Orleans, Dec 15–19
🔗 agu.confex.com/agu/agu25/pr...

What a view of the Sandia mountains last week in Albuquerque. So happy to join the @aereorg.bsky.social scholars cohort, an amazing group of supportive and brilliant people!

📈 Daily global temperature between 1940 to 2025 – @hausfath.bsky.social
2️⃣ bsky.app/profile/haus...

A weather system over Houston keeps delaying my connecting flight, but still hopeful I'll make it on time for the first session!

What an amazing week at the Beijer Institute, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences!

Sharing ideas, methods and good moments with this talented group of scholars studying socioecological impacts.

🚨"Heat disproportionally kills young people: Evidence from Wet-Bulb Temperature Exposure" My new paper co-lead with @ajsw.info is out today!

Using 20 years of nationwide mortality microdata + wet-bulb temperature, we uncovered fascinating new findings. Thread 👇

www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

Sure thing! Here's a website where activists and academics are compiling info that has proved useful to inform about potential impacts, but not peer reviewed research that I'm aware of.

whalesorgas.org