Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 18h

It's crazy to see both stocks and gold booming in the same decade

This has never happened before in modern times

Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 19h

Animal Spirits: It Feels Like 1999

No one is going to call the top

We have a bubble in bubble predictions

A bull market in wealth inequality

Hyperscalers vs. the labor market

Why are foreign stocks & gold outperforming during an AI boom?

awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/10/anim...

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 1d

Some spending rules:

Randomly pick up the tab for your friends on a night out

Vacations give you more memories than the balance of your portfolio

Certain material possessions can make you happier

Save & invest up front so you can spend guilt free

awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/10/bens...

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 2d

There is a bubble in financial news stories that lead w/a picture of a bubble

Saw all of these in stories just in the past week

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 2d

The stock market bottoms 9 months before earnings in bear markets (on average)

But stocks and earnings top around the same time at the bull market peaks

So the market is forward looking at bottoms not so much at tops

No one's perfect

awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/10/can-...

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 5d

4 ways to invest in a bubble:

1. Pull a George Soros and go all-in

2. Cash out/hedge

3. Diversify

4. Do nothing

Here's what I'm doing:

awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/10/how-...

4 3 25

Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 7d

Why was the stock market up so much in the 2010s?

Why is it up so much in the 2020s?

Two words - earnings growth

It was 10.6% per year in the 2010s

It's 9% per year this decade

awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/09/why-...

Why is the Stock Market Up So Much in the 2020s? - A Wealth of Common Sense

A closer look at the biggest driver of stock market returns over the past 13 decades.

awealthofcommonsense.com

3 3 25

Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 7d

Animal Spirits: Why Retail is Outperforming

How do you hedge against an AI bubble?

What's driving stock market returns

Inequality in the economy & stock market

The US is way richer than the UK

Is PE in trouble?

Airport lounge reviews & more

awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/10/anim...

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 8d

There is a symmetry to bear markets in the short-term

In the long-term there is an asymmetric relationship between bull and bear markets

You just have to survive the short run to get to the long run

awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/09/how-...

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 9d

Becoming more and more convinced AI is going to be the final nail in the coffin for Twitter

Replies are unusable at this point w/the bots

Doesn't seem like Twitter even cares

I have bizarrely seen more ppl going to Linkedin which I never thought possible but it makes sense

7 4 52

Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 10d

The AI boom feels a lot like the railway & dot-com bubbles

It seems so obvious

So why is gold outperforming tech stocks?

Why is there $7.7 trillion in money markets?

Some thoughts on the weirdest bubble ever:

awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/09/the-...

The Weirdest Bubble Ever - A Wealth of Common Sense

The AI bubble has gone plaid.

awealthofcommonsense.com

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 12d

A 22-year-old introvert asked for some career advice about finance jobs, communication and taking some time off

I have some thoughts:

awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/09/the-...

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 13d

It’s kind of amazing how many bad policies are being canceled out by the AI boom right now

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 14d

Working on it

1

Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 14d

From Michael Cembalest:

AI related stocks have accounted for 75% of S&P 500 returns, 80% of earnings growth and 90% of capital spending growth since ChatGPT launched in November 2022

This is one for the history books

assets.jpmprivatebank.com/content/dam/...

assets.jpmprivatebank.com

9 3 24

Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 14d

Everyone talks about the 4% rule but most retirees don't come close to that number

Married 65-year-olds with at least $100k in assets withdraw just 2.1% per year from their savings

Retirees spend ~50% of their savings on average

awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/09/why-...

Why the 4% Rule is More Like the 2% Rule - A Wealth of Common Sense

Does anyone actually follow the 4% rule?

awealthofcommonsense.com

5 4 30

Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 14d

Animal Spirits: A Mania is Brewing

This has to be a bubble...right?

S&P 10,000?

Why is gold at ATHs in an AI boom?

Why is there $7.7 trillion in money market funds?

How the Fed can bring down mortgage rates

The two-speed economy & more

awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/09/anim...

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 15d

Gold is at all time highs

Money market assets are at all time highs

Stocks are at all time highs

Housing prices at all time highs

If this is a bubble it’s one of the weirdest ones of all time

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 15d

Life is short

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 15d

Personal finance ppl are fine at giving advice about saving and paying down debt

Do NOT listen to their advice about spending $$$

They want you to delay gratification for the rest of your life until you have a big portfolio and are miserable b/c you never enjoy it

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 15d

1.5 hrs outside of Calgary. It’s beautiful

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 15d

Yep on my list

Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 15d

Talking to a group of advisors today. Great place for it

1

Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 15d

The office today

Banff is one of the most stunning places I’ve ever seen

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 16d

There are fewer public companies b/c firms are staying private longer

Is this impacting the performance of small caps?

I say no it's not that simple:

awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/09/are-...

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