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Ben Noble

@benjaminsnoble.bsky.social

470 followers 230 following 68 posts

Asst. Prof of Political Science at UC San Deigo. WUSTL PhD. Studying the politics of presidential and congressional rhetoric. Powered by LaTeX and Coffee. benjaminnoble.org.

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Ben Noble @benjaminsnoble.bsky.social · Aug 20

FirstView day for my PSRM article, “Presidential Negative Partisanship.” 🥳

I show presidents attack the opposition most (not persuade) when legislating is least likely to succeed—and those attacks mobilize their own side.

cambridge.org/core/journal...

Read on for the 🧵 version...

Presidential negative partisanship | Political Science Research and Methods | Cambridge Core

Presidential negative partisanship

cambridge.org

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Ben Noble @benjaminsnoble.bsky.social · 29d

Thanks Joel!

Reposted by Ben Noble

Political Science Research and Methods @psrm.bsky.social · Aug 28

🗣️ Do US presidents attack the opposition instead of seeking compromise?

➡️ Using 90 years of speeches, @benjaminsnoble.bsky.social shows presidents target the outparty when gridlock looms, mobilising allies and shaping future power, not immediate policy www.cambridge.org/core/journal... #FirstView

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Ben Noble @benjaminsnoble.bsky.social · Aug 20

Thanks Steven!

Ben Noble @benjaminsnoble.bsky.social · Aug 20

Thank you to everyone who provided support and feedback along the way!

You can read the full article here:

cambridge.org/core/journal...

Presidential negative partisanship | Political Science Research and Methods | Cambridge Core

Presidential negative partisanship

cambridge.org

Ben Noble @benjaminsnoble.bsky.social · Aug 20

Presidents promise unity, but institutional constraints push them toward negative partisan appeals that help electorally—even though they complicate lawmaking and our notion that presidents are "above party."

Ben Noble @benjaminsnoble.bsky.social · Aug 20

Some behavioral evidence: Using monthly TAPS panel data (2012–2017) from WUSTL, more presidential negative partisanship in month t leads to lower co-partisan approval of the out-party in month t+1. Out-partisans’ views don't change—so this is mobilization, not persuasion.

Ben Noble @benjaminsnoble.bsky.social · Aug 20

Case, Obama 2009–10: After Democrats lose their 60th Senate seat, Obama’s GOP references nearly triple and become much more negative—exactly as the argument predicts.

Ben Noble @benjaminsnoble.bsky.social · Aug 20

Where? Less so in major national addresses like the State of the Union. Out-party references are prevalent in rallies and campaign-style remarks—consistent with an electoral (not legislative) goal.

Ben Noble @benjaminsnoble.bsky.social · Aug 20

Sentiment? References are more negative in competitive periods and during divided government.

Ben Noble @benjaminsnoble.bsky.social · Aug 20

Frequency? Out-party references rise with (a) "insecure majorities" i.e., 1947–1956 and 1981–2024 (Lee 2016), (b) during divided government, and (c) as elections approach.

Ben Noble @benjaminsnoble.bsky.social · Aug 20

I collect all presidential speeches from 1933-2024 from the American Presidency Project. I count out-party mentions (party labels, recent out-party presidents, congressional leaders) and score sentiment of each paragraph using a contextual embedding model.

Ben Noble @benjaminsnoble.bsky.social · Aug 20

This is not an isolated incident. Why do presidents increasingly use negative partisan rhetoric?

My argument: When legislative prospects are poor, presidents attack the out-party to mobilize co-partisans now and win the next Congress, where policymaking will be easier.

Ben Noble @benjaminsnoble.bsky.social · Aug 20

Biden didn't try to compromise or accommodate. He hit back, promising “the American people are going to know that the only reason the border is not secure is Donald Trump and his MAGA Republican friends”—at odds with classic “going public” persuasion.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=G6jm...

Biden: 'The only reason the border is not secure is Donald Trump'

YouTube video by MSNBC

www.youtube.com

Ben Noble @benjaminsnoble.bsky.social · Aug 20

The story starts in February 2024: a conservative-leaning border package looked viable. Then Republicans backed away. McConnell called it “weak,” and one House Republican said he refused to help Democrats in an election year.

edition.cnn.com/2024/01/03/p...

Ben Noble @benjaminsnoble.bsky.social · Aug 20

Presidential negative partisanship | Political Science Research and Methods | Cambridge Core

Presidential negative partisanship

cambridge.org

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Ben Noble @benjaminsnoble.bsky.social · Aug 1

In none of these examples does AI replace me or my expertise.

I never uncritically copy/paste AI output.

In each case, I apply my own judgment, knowledge, and taste to achieve outcomes that would be impractical or impossible without AI.

Ben Noble @benjaminsnoble.bsky.social · Aug 1

6️⃣ Writing a custom textbook: LLMs helped me transform rough lecture notes into polished chapters. Reviewing and editing the output took a couple hours per chapter, but students loved this bespoke, living textbook.

Check it out! understandingamericanpolitics.substack.com

Understanding American Politics | Benjamin Noble | Substack

A companion to my Introduction to American Politics course. Click to read Understanding American Politics, by Benjamin Noble, a Substack publication with hundreds of subscribers.

understandingamericanpolitics.substack.com

Ben Noble @benjaminsnoble.bsky.social · Aug 1

5️⃣ Creating exam questions: ChatGPT aced my multiple‑choice causal final. So I ditched MCQs and used AI to simulate datasets for open‑ended problems that truly tested my students' understanding.

Ben Noble @benjaminsnoble.bsky.social · Aug 1

4️⃣ Making slide images: Sometimes you want a custom graphic. AI image generators can produce playful illustrations—think “I’m Just a Bill” for bureaucracy—that make slides memorable and keep lecture-writing fun.

Ben Noble @benjaminsnoble.bsky.social · Aug 1

3️⃣ Getting critical feedback: I gave a practice talk to ChatGPT and got back a 2,000‑word review. Not every suggestion was great, but many were helpful (just like peer review).

Ben Noble @benjaminsnoble.bsky.social · Aug 1

2️⃣ Synthesizing literature: Early LLMs hallucinated citations. With “deep research,” they search for 10–20 minutes and produce a report summarizing real sources. I use these reports to orient myself, spot gaps, and decide what to read next.

Ben Noble @benjaminsnoble.bsky.social · Aug 1

1️⃣ Debugging code: I used to puzzle over why my `mutate()` call didn’t work. Now I paste error messages into ChatGPT and get a tailored fix. It’s low effort/low reward, but those small time savers compound.

Ben Noble @benjaminsnoble.bsky.social · Aug 1

I share...

3 for RESEARCH:
• Debugging code (ok duh)
• Synthesizing literature (it's good now)
• Getting critical feedback (peer revAIew?)

3 for TEACHING:
• Making slide images (silly, fun)
• Creating exam questions (try it)
• Writing custom textbooks (no, really)

Ben Noble @benjaminsnoble.bsky.social · Aug 1

Academics are skeptical of AI.

"It plagiarizes!"
"It hallucinates!"
"It’s killing critical thinking!"

And sure—it’s not perfect.

But after a year of experimenting, I've found 6 AI applications that have transformed my research and teaching 🧵

benjaminnoble.org/blog/six-ai-...

Six AI Applications Every Academic Should Try

From debugging code to synthesizing literature to creating a custom textbook, these applications complement rather than substitute for critical thinking.

benjaminnoble.org

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Reposted by Ben Noble

David Ryan Miller @davidryanmiller.com · Jun 10

Though Trump II often claims it is "maximally transparent," it hides a lot of information about relationships with outside groups/individuals

One such type of information is records of White House visitors

I explain why this is problematic for democracy at @thehill.com

thehill.com/opinion/whit...

thehill.com

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