@bernankesbeard.bsky.social
Fwiw, at least one of the NJO authors pushed back against the whole "Palpatine was preparing for the Vong/the Empire was bad but militarily effective" thing by having Han point out that Palpatine would probably have just built another pointless superweapon and gotten it blown up.
December 9, 2025 at 3:14 AM
Fwiw, at least one of the NJO authors pushed back against the whole "Palpatine was preparing for the Vong/the Empire was bad but militarily effective" thing by having Han point out that Palpatine would probably have just built another pointless superweapon and gotten it blown up.
It's a good issue to focus on *if you know Republicans won't concede*.
But what if they do? If your goal is just narrowly to prevent the expiration, then great! If your goal is to oppose the administration/improve your electoral odds, then this probably makes things worse for you
But what if they do? If your goal is just narrowly to prevent the expiration, then great! If your goal is to oppose the administration/improve your electoral odds, then this probably makes things worse for you
September 17, 2025 at 2:29 PM
It's a good issue to focus on *if you know Republicans won't concede*.
But what if they do? If your goal is just narrowly to prevent the expiration, then great! If your goal is to oppose the administration/improve your electoral odds, then this probably makes things worse for you
But what if they do? If your goal is just narrowly to prevent the expiration, then great! If your goal is to oppose the administration/improve your electoral odds, then this probably makes things worse for you
Voters response on this expiration is not symmetric. The expiration isn't salient and won't be until it happens. So the electoral penalty to Republicans for letting it expire >> electoral benefits to Democrats for preventing something most people didn't know would happen.
September 17, 2025 at 1:58 PM
Voters response on this expiration is not symmetric. The expiration isn't salient and won't be until it happens. So the electoral penalty to Republicans for letting it expire >> electoral benefits to Democrats for preventing something most people didn't know would happen.
It takes a truly special person to get worked up about the imaginary reasons why something didn't happen.
I suppose we shouldn't be surprised coming from someone who became famous for whining that her colleagues were mean to her.
I suppose we shouldn't be surprised coming from someone who became famous for whining that her colleagues were mean to her.
September 16, 2025 at 7:43 PM
It takes a truly special person to get worked up about the imaginary reasons why something didn't happen.
I suppose we shouldn't be surprised coming from someone who became famous for whining that her colleagues were mean to her.
I suppose we shouldn't be surprised coming from someone who became famous for whining that her colleagues were mean to her.
Giving the same weight to Core and Trimmed Mean, which have a track record, as you would to "Core ex Housing and Used Cars" seems odd. Where does the belief that the latter is an effective measure of inflation come from?
August 29, 2025 at 9:01 PM
Giving the same weight to Core and Trimmed Mean, which have a track record, as you would to "Core ex Housing and Used Cars" seems odd. Where does the belief that the latter is an effective measure of inflation come from?
What's the point of mixing these all together and taking the median?
For ex, trimmed mean seems strictly preferable to core: www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note...
1. Less month to month variation
2. Smaller revisions
3. Similar predictive performance
4. Stronger conceptual foundation
For ex, trimmed mean seems strictly preferable to core: www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note...
1. Less month to month variation
2. Smaller revisions
3. Similar predictive performance
4. Stronger conceptual foundation
Comparing Two Measures of Core Inflation: PCE Excluding Food & Energy vs. the Trimmed Mean PCE Index
The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.
www.federalreserve.gov
August 29, 2025 at 8:58 PM
What's the point of mixing these all together and taking the median?
For ex, trimmed mean seems strictly preferable to core: www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note...
1. Less month to month variation
2. Smaller revisions
3. Similar predictive performance
4. Stronger conceptual foundation
For ex, trimmed mean seems strictly preferable to core: www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note...
1. Less month to month variation
2. Smaller revisions
3. Similar predictive performance
4. Stronger conceptual foundation
It's not like voters are all *that* hard to model.
Sure it might not be true that Biden was to blame for the inflation during his term. That's not really relevant to whether voters blamed him for it - they did.
Sure it might not be true that Biden was to blame for the inflation during his term. That's not really relevant to whether voters blamed him for it - they did.
August 26, 2025 at 7:25 PM
It's not like voters are all *that* hard to model.
Sure it might not be true that Biden was to blame for the inflation during his term. That's not really relevant to whether voters blamed him for it - they did.
Sure it might not be true that Biden was to blame for the inflation during his term. That's not really relevant to whether voters blamed him for it - they did.
I'm genuinely confused that liberals find it incomprehensible that voters might care about inflation *over the course of a President's term* instead of just the last year
August 26, 2025 at 7:14 PM
I'm genuinely confused that liberals find it incomprehensible that voters might care about inflation *over the course of a President's term* instead of just the last year
2. "I followed bad advice/I was pressured to do it" leads to the obvious question of "oh so you're a weak leader who also has bad judgement about what advice to follow? Why would we expect you to show better judgement or be able to resist pressure now when, as you've admitted you failed to do this?"
August 16, 2025 at 2:47 PM
2. "I followed bad advice/I was pressured to do it" leads to the obvious question of "oh so you're a weak leader who also has bad judgement about what advice to follow? Why would we expect you to show better judgement or be able to resist pressure now when, as you've admitted you failed to do this?"
How does he make that claim credibly though?
It seems like either:
1. "I made a huge mistake. Oops" leads to the pretty inevitable question of "Why should we trust your judgement/leadership which, by your own admission, blew the biggest crisis you've ever faced"
It seems like either:
1. "I made a huge mistake. Oops" leads to the pretty inevitable question of "Why should we trust your judgement/leadership which, by your own admission, blew the biggest crisis you've ever faced"
August 16, 2025 at 2:44 PM
How does he make that claim credibly though?
It seems like either:
1. "I made a huge mistake. Oops" leads to the pretty inevitable question of "Why should we trust your judgement/leadership which, by your own admission, blew the biggest crisis you've ever faced"
It seems like either:
1. "I made a huge mistake. Oops" leads to the pretty inevitable question of "Why should we trust your judgement/leadership which, by your own admission, blew the biggest crisis you've ever faced"
A big driver of the lower acceptance is probably much higher application rates thanks to the common app. The common app has boosted applications by ~25%.
www.nber.org/digest/nov19...
www.nber.org/digest/nov19...
Common Application Has Had Wide-Ranging Effects on College Admissions
www.nber.org
August 7, 2025 at 6:46 PM
A big driver of the lower acceptance is probably much higher application rates thanks to the common app. The common app has boosted applications by ~25%.
www.nber.org/digest/nov19...
www.nber.org/digest/nov19...
"It's different now! For the past 25 years, all of our Presidents have been dumb, but *this* one is smart!"
"Fascinating! Who are the four dumb people who were President over the last 25 years again?"
"Fascinating! Who are the four dumb people who were President over the last 25 years again?"
June 22, 2025 at 9:25 PM
"It's different now! For the past 25 years, all of our Presidents have been dumb, but *this* one is smart!"
"Fascinating! Who are the four dumb people who were President over the last 25 years again?"
"Fascinating! Who are the four dumb people who were President over the last 25 years again?"
The most obvious "Person should have done X to beat Trump" is that Biden shouldn't have waited until summer 2024 to trivially solve the asylum issue
May 28, 2025 at 2:57 PM
The most obvious "Person should have done X to beat Trump" is that Biden shouldn't have waited until summer 2024 to trivially solve the asylum issue
I'm always bewildered that these takes are about some insane campaign tactic that 99.9999% of Americans would never know about and wouldn't care about even if they did.
May 28, 2025 at 2:56 PM
I'm always bewildered that these takes are about some insane campaign tactic that 99.9999% of Americans would never know about and wouldn't care about even if they did.
This is Sandlot slander, Mike
May 25, 2025 at 11:04 PM
This is Sandlot slander, Mike
The most revealing part of that chat was Hegseth talking about these airstrikes re-establishing deterrence that Biden had failed to do.
As if Biden hadn't spent most of 2024 doing exactly what they were planning on doing.
As if Biden hadn't spent most of 2024 doing exactly what they were planning on doing.
April 27, 2025 at 4:24 PM
The most revealing part of that chat was Hegseth talking about these airstrikes re-establishing deterrence that Biden had failed to do.
As if Biden hadn't spent most of 2024 doing exactly what they were planning on doing.
As if Biden hadn't spent most of 2024 doing exactly what they were planning on doing.
And from the brilliant minds that brought us "the tariffs will never happen, they're just a negotiating tactic"?!
April 22, 2025 at 2:45 AM
And from the brilliant minds that brought us "the tariffs will never happen, they're just a negotiating tactic"?!
The D->R people is the crank re-alignment
April 18, 2025 at 6:58 PM
The D->R people is the crank re-alignment
The timing of the flag at the end:
a man and a woman are standing next to each other in a room .
ALT: a man and a woman are standing next to each other in a room .
media.tenor.com
April 11, 2025 at 12:54 AM
The timing of the flag at the end:
Beard-Hacker Thesis, perhaps?
March 10, 2025 at 12:09 AM
Beard-Hacker Thesis, perhaps?